Ukraine

[aeolium]

I agree that Merkel appears to have had a more thoughtful approach to the crisis than either the Americans or some of the European technocrats. But I also feel that there is some truth in the comment in the first article quoted by calum, that there has been a political naivety on the part of people like van Rompuy, that they treat the supposedly inevitable integration of Eastern European countries with strong historical affinities with Russia as a kind of technical matter rather than one fraught with peril. Yet a lesson could have been learnt in 2008 with the South Ossetian-Georgian war when the Americans were keen on Georgia joining NATO and the EU were proposing Associate Member status for Georgia, even though there were unresolved separatist issues with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Part of the problem is that there is no united European foreign policy, with different positions being taken on various foreign policy issues. But for America and the EU (or at least some EU leaders) to assume that Russia will surrender to NATO and Europe influence over regions that it believes are strategically critical is strange.

[french frank]

I agree that the Ukraine situation is Georgia writ large. But here, if one can believe either side, it seems to be the insensitivity of some Western powers, notably the US, or pehaps naivety in the case of the EU, versus the paranoia of the Russians that these are all conspiracies to destabilise Russia.

Either way, at least the talking is still going on. Hope Merkel has a bit more leverage with the Americans after the phone hacking business. She may be depicted as a retional scientist, but I bet she can be fearsome when angry!

[french frank]

Interesting Russian position on the 'Crimea land-grab'. You could take the view that as a large majority of the inhanitants of the Crimea are ethnic Russians, a referendum to ask them whether they wish to join Russia and become Russian citizens does have the appeal of the 'self-determination' argument'. But where would that leave Russian support for the Serbian claim to keep hold of Kosovo (where the majority are ethnic Albanians, and a small minority are Serbs)?

What is the argument against shifts in international frontiers on such clear ethnic bases?

[Serial_Apologist]

Interesting Russian position on the 'Crimea land-grab'. You could take the view that as a large majority of the inhanitants of the Crimea are ethnic Russians, a referendum to ask them whether they wish to join Russia and become Russian citizens does have the appeal of the 'self-determination' argument'. But where would that leave Russian support for the Serbian claim to keep hold of Kosovo (where the majority are ethnic Albanians, and a small minority are Serbs)?

What is the argument against shifts in international frontiers on such clear ethnic bases?

Our argument is clear because we don't give answers based on ethnicity. Their's - the various opponents' and combatants' - are not, thus making it difficult for us to take sides.

[french frank]

Our argument is clear because we don't give answers based on ethnicity.

I think that argument only has strength if the suggestion is that frontiers should be imposed on the basis of ethnicity. But that isn't suggested. The suggestion is that the inhabitants should have the democratic right of self-determination. We do, broadly (if not strictly!) speaking, accept that in, for instance, the Falklands and Northern Ireland (where a majority wishes to remain British).

[Sydney Grew]

In fact the concepts "nation" and "frontier" have become discreditable in to-day's world. After all that has happened over the last hundred years it should be a crime to speak of them. And "patriotism" is tommy-rot.

[Beef Oven!]

In fact the concepts "nation" and "frontier" have become discreditable in to-day's world. After all that has happened over the last hundred years it should be a crime to speak of them. And "patriotism" is tommy-rot.

Why limit it to the last 100years?

[french frank]

So, I'm still not clear which 'side' people are on. My feeling is that the wishes of the people are more important than territorial claims/history. What can of worms would that open on the global scale?

[Serial_Apologist]

So, I'm still not clear which 'side' people are on. My feeling is that the wishes of the people are more important than territorial claims/history. What can of worms would that open on the global scale?

What if people's wishes are territorial claims and history, though? Devoid of evidence one way or the other, I can only conclude that Russian-speaking Ukrainians must have been dealt an awful deal since Russia ceded the Crimea back in '54. What puzzles me, though, given that Russia is now supposed to have been part of the global capitalist system for the past 22 years at least, is, what on earth has Lenin to do with it all?

[aeolium]

So, I'm still not clear which 'side' people are on. My feeling is that the wishes of the people are more important than territorial claims/history. What can of worms would that open on the global scale?

An appalling one. It is one thing for communities to seek separatism and independence from a unitary state - as with Slovakia, Kosovo, Scotland, Catalonia, the Basques etc - but quite another to upset the fragile international equilibrium by seeking to join with another in a kind of voluntary self-colonisation. We now have an explosive combination of large ethnic minorities resulting from C20 migrations and the re-ordering of international boundaries since the 1989 revolutions marking the collapse of the Iron Curtain. If a precedent is set that one part of a state can transfer its allegiance simply on the grounds of its ethnic associations then there is no shortage of other candidates to do the same - any of the Baltic states for instance, or Trans-Dniester (South Ossetia is already virtually a satellite region of Russia). Part of the problem is the obtuse diplomacy of Western politicians who thought there would be nothing wrong with seeking to assimilate former Soviet areas like Georgia and Ukraine into Western political and military structures like the EU and Nato. Any sort of historical understanding should have alerted them to the danger of this kind of approach, not just because of the sizeable Russian-speaking minorities in these regions but also because of Russia's own strategic interests. Alarm bells should have sounded with the Georgia-South Ossetia war in 2008 but a similar situation arose with Ukraine and once again we have de-facto secession and alignment of the seceding region with Russia.

[ahinton]

Crimea was ceded to Ukraine by Russia around six decades ago during the Soviet era. Now post-Soviet(?) Russia seems to be wanting it back on the pretext that this is what the majority of Crimea citizens seem to be claiming to want. Crimea's population barely exceeds 2m. That of Ukraine is around 46m. If the referendum results are to be believed, most of those 2m want to rejoin Russia, whereas most of the remaining Ukrainians seem to want to stay put. Crimea's land area is some 26,000km² whereas that of the rest of Ukraine is 577,000km². No brainer or no Ukrainer?

Likewise, Trans-Dniester has a land area of just over 4,000km² and a population of a little over half a million, whereas Moldova as a whole occupies almost 34,000km² and has a population of some 3.6m (although I'm not sure if those figures include Trans-Dneister or are just for the rest of Moldova); that said, Trans-Dneister has no border with Russia as Crimea does - and it won't do unless Putin successfully annexes not just Crimea but Ukraine in its entirety, which seems not to be officially on the cards - at least not yet...

[Bryn]

As Putin seems to be puttin' it.

[french frank]

An appalling one. [...] Part of the problem is the obtuse diplomacy of Western politicians who thought there would be nothing wrong with seeking to assimilate former Soviet areas like Georgia and Ukraine into Western political and military structures like the EU and Nato.

On NATO, I agree. But where countries seek some sort of economic union with Europe, it's even more complicated. What a turnaround there seems to have been in Serbia, also on the edge of Russia's sphere of influence. An ex-ally of Milosevic is now pro-EU and wants to push ahead with the accession procedures.

[What next? Kosovo votes to rejoin Serbia?]

[aeolium]

On NATO, I agree. But where countries seek some sort of economic union with Europe, it's even more complicated.

Yes, but I think in the case of the former Soviet regions or countries where there are powerful Russian-speaking ethnic communities and where Russia has strong historical links and strategic interests it is good for Western politicians and diplomats, especially in the EU, to tread carefully. After all, even though polls have shown a slight majority of Ukrainians in favour of joining the EU, quite a sizeable minority - perhaps a third or more - have been shown to favour joining a Russian customs union. Given that and secessionist movements in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea, the EU could and perhaps should have toned down expectations.

What a turnaround there seems to have been in Serbia, also on the edge of Russia's sphere of influence. An ex-ally of Milosevic is now pro-EU and wants to push ahead with the accession procedures.

I'd be wary about premature judgements on Vucic, the Serbian leader. He may turn out to be another Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian nationalist leading an authoritarian regime with a new constitution which has incorporated some of his own party's policies (and who has also upset neighbouring countries with ethnic Hungarian minorities by unilaterally conferring dual citizenship on the minorities).

[What next? Kosovo votes to rejoin Serbia?]

About as likely as the unification of Cyprus - fortunately. The times are interesting enough as it is.

[french frank]

I'd be wary about premature judgements on Vucic, the Serbian leader.

Interesting to see his stance on this news. For the situation to be like the Crimea it would require Serbia to be willing to absorb Serb regions of Bosnia - which would put an end to any thoughts of joining the EU, I would have thought.