Ukraine

[Eine Alpensinfonie]

Although I don't like the haste of the whole process, the fact that Crimea was gifted to a powerless Ukraine 60 years ago without a referendum does put this dispute in ratyer a different category from the invasion of Czechoslovakian or the annexation of Austria. It would appear to suit the residents. My concern is the possibility of other parts of Ukraine attempting to do the same.

[aeolium]

Although I don't like the haste of the whole process, the fact that Crimea was gifted to a powerless Ukraine 60 years ago without a referendum does put this dispute in ratyer a different category from the invasion of Czechoslovakian or the annexation of Austria. It would appear to suit the residents. My concern is the possibility of other parts of Ukraine attempting to do the same.

I wonder if a closer parallel might be with the annexation of the German Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia in October 1938, followed by a later invasion of the parent country the following year (not that I want to make too close a comparison between Hitler and Putin). In his speech to the Duma confirming his approval of the annexation of Crimea, Putin invoked the memory of another Vladimir, Vladimir the Great, Grand Prince of Kiev and Rus in the C10. It's clear that he sees not just Crimea but the whole of Ukraine as historically and spiritually Russian and I wonder how long before another secessionist movement is engineered, helped by plain-clothes militias and Russian speakers bussed in. A key date will be the May 25 election in Ukraine. If a pro-Russian party is elected (now unlikely) then Putin will not need to act, but if an anti-Russian government is confirmed in Kiev then it will be very tense.

The whole Crimea process is dodgy legally, but then not much more than the overthrow of a legitimately elected President and government. And Western governments have no ground on which to claim breaches of international law, having been up to their necks in crimes of illegal foreign interventions, detention without trial, rendition etc. And there is very little the West can practically do about Russian annexations of land, particularly as several European governments are worried about retributive Russian sanctions. I just wonder which will be the next region to voluntarily secede to a neighbouring country.

[french frank]

The whole Crimea process is dodgy legally, but then not much more than the overthrow of a legitimately elected President and government. And Western governments have no ground on which to claim breaches of international law, having been up to their necks in crimes of illegal foreign interventions, detention without trial, rendition etc. And there is very little the West can practically do about Russian annexations of land, particularly as several European governments are worried about retributive Russian sanctions. I just wonder which will be the next region to voluntarily secede to a neighbouring country.

I think I would be inclined to dig a canal along the border and leave Russia to deal with the crime, corruption and economic disadvantages (in which the Crimea probably resembles Russia more than the Ukraine anyway).

[Serial_Apologist]

In addition, the extent of Britain's and more particularly other European countries' dependence on Russian gas lends a particular urgency to the unresolved wider issue of modern industrial societies' perpetual dependency on environmentally unsustainable energy forms, along with their sources, for which no one apart from the Greens seems to have any solutions.

[french frank]

Oh, dear. I hope this won't result in another troublesome annexation.

[amateur51]

I wonder if a closer parallel might be with the annexation of the German Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia in October 1938, followed by a later invasion of the parent country the following year (not that I want to make too close a comparison between Hitler and Putin). In his speech to the Duma confirming his approval of the annexation of Crimea, Putin invoked the memory of another Vladimir, Vladimir the Great, Grand Prince of Kiev and Rus in the C10. It's clear that he sees not just Crimea but the whole of Ukraine as historically and spiritually Russian and I wonder how long before another secessionist movement is engineered, helped by plain-clothes militias and Russian speakers bussed in. A key date will be the May 25 election in Ukraine. If a pro-Russian party is elected (now unlikely) then Putin will not need to act, but if an anti-Russian government is confirmed in Kiev then it will be very tense.

The whole Crimea process is dodgy legally, but then not much more than the overthrow of a legitimately elected President and government. And Western governments have no ground on which to claim breaches of international law, having been up to their necks in crimes of illegal foreign interventions, detention without trial, rendition etc. And there is very little the West can practically do about Russian annexations of land, particularly as several European governments are worried about retributive Russian sanctions. I just wonder which will be the next region to voluntarily secede to a neighbouring country.

I hope it becomes widely appreciated that Messrs Bush (43) and Blair provided Putin with ample excuse for breaking international law in this way.

I know two wrongs, etc., but Putin was quick as a flash on to these parallels.

[aeolium]

I hope it becomes widely appreciated that Messrs Bush (43) and Blair provided Putin with ample excuse for breaking international law in this way.

I know two wrongs, etc., but Putin was quick as a flash on to these parallels.

Yes, am51. The late Law Lord, Lord Bingham, put it succinctly in his book on the rule of law: "The moment that a state treats the rules of international law as binding on others but not on itself, the compact on which the law rests is broken. 'It is', as has been said, 'the difference between the role of world policeman and world vigilante.'"

[ahinton]

Oh, dear. I hope this won't result in another troublesome annexation.

Perhaps we'll have to wait and see what the Queen has to say about this...

[Petrushka]

Looks like this is hotting up again.

Any bets on a Russian invasion over Easter while Western governments are preoccupied with their holidays?

[eighthobstruction]

OMG....pwshhhh....PEOPLE!! http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...510688,00.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/04/17/what-we-know-about-the-grotesque-leaflet-handed-out-to-jews-in-donetsk/

[french frank]

"While the content of the letter is obviously offensive, there are plenty of reasons to be a little cautious aboutthis story" That was my immediate thought ... Cui bono?

[eighthobstruction]

Even if they are fake (i.e. not from a central authority)....they do at least seem to exist....i don't think that 'who benefits' comes into it....if they were printed and distributed, and got under the skins and psyches of Jews, I'd say that was job done for the warped minds that dreamed it up....

[french frank]

Even if they are fake (i.e. not from a central authority)....they do at least seem to exist....i

And if the intention was to arouse alarm in the minds of the (smallish) Jewish population, it's enough. But the Israelis leaning on Obama and Russians leaning on Putin can be seen as conferring 'rights' (Putin's word) on both sides.

I hadn't realised there are marginally more Russians than Ukrainians in Donetsk.

[amateur51]

It does look as tho' the appeasement of Putin in spite of his human rights record by those insisting on attending the Winter Olympics has proven to be a useful testing ground for Putin and his ambitions in Ukraine (and beyond - who knows?).

He knows that he has the West over a barrel because of its behaviour in Iraq and Afghanistan and now he also knows that the West's threats of 'consequences' are largely empty gestures, inclined to pull his electorate onside more than anything else.

Oh dear!

[french frank]

He knows that he has the West over a barrel because of its behaviour in Iraq and Afghanistan

Ah! well a-day! what evil looks
Had I from old and young!
Instead of the cross, the Albatross
About my neck was hung.

Great mistake not to step in and save Syria, as observed by ACL Blair