Lib Dems - the party we can trust???

[Beef Oven!]

What are your own credentials for understanding it better, other than having read a book in the mid 70s?

To state observed truths isn't 'lazy talk', and isn't necessarily intended to be some sort of compendium of political wisdom; nor do the truths become false.

Never mind my credentials.

And it is very lazy to stereo-type 'poor working class areas' as 'traditionally racist' (whatever that means, anyway) and pass such prejudices off as 'observed truths'.

[Beef Oven!]

Also it's perfectly reasonable to try to consider the nature and demographic of UKIP's appeal now, not after the European and next general elections. After all, it claims to be a serious fourth force in UK politics - a claim recognised by Ofcom - and has been consistently polling above 10%. And it's not a question of "the Guardian" understanding UKIP or not: the writers of that article have also written on UKIP in the Telegraph and Financial Times. But it's not just "socialists" and "liberals" pondering UKIP - this was a lengthy study commissioned in 2012 by a former deputy chairman of the Conservative party. The study looked at the issues thought important by those who had voted UKIP or were considering voting UKIP, also recording demographic information such as age, sex, social group. That sort of study seems a far better basis on which to look at UKIP than a book written two decades before UKIP existed.

This sort of study is not, in my opinion better, never mind far better, in that it tells worried Conservatives how UKIP is increasing in appeal and doesn't get to the fundamental reasons as to why (although it does go in for a few 'News Night' type superficial reasons). The why bit is actually quite simple and lies within what the basic British political character is.

Demography is not on UKIP's side, and the window of opportunity for them will close before too soon.

[french frank]

Never mind my credentials.

If you're going to dismiss other people's expressed views in a blanket way, it gives the impression that you're saying you know better. I think it reasonable to ask on what grounds you feel your views are more valid than those expressed in the press article or here. But, of course, you aren't obliged to answer. You're entitled to your views.

[Beef Oven!]

If you're going to dismiss other people's expressed views in a blanket way, it gives the impression that you're saying you know better. I think it reasonable to ask on what grounds you feel your views are more valid than those expressed in the press article or here. But, of course, you aren't obliged to answer. You're entitled to your views.

You have sufficient experience of me to know that if I thought 'I knew better', I'd say so. I'm pretty sure I know different.

For example, the working class areas that you tell us are 'traditionally racist', happen to have many interracial relationships, marriages and friendships and a very high level of racial and cultural integration. Far more than middle class areas. I'd like to see the wedding photos from white people in non-working class areas and see the number of black faces at the ceremony.

[french frank]

For example, the working class areas that you tell us are 'traditionally racist', happen to have many interracial relationships, marriages and friendships and a very high level of racial and cultural integration. Far more than middle class areas. I'd like to see the wedding photos from white people in non-working class areas and see the number of black faces at the ceremony.

I cut out most of the answer that I'd laboured over, but I was going to point out the difference between areas which are very culturally mixed and those which aren't.

Bristol East (and parts of Bristol West) are very mixed, and there is very little aggro there. But you may remember the Panorama programme a few years ago called 'Hate on the Doorstep' in which two Asian BBC reporters went into the Southmead area and were horrifyingly abused. A boy of about 12 was even filmed threatening one of them. Of course, there were many local people who were upset at the way their neighbourhood had been portrayed - and with good reason, since they themselves would never have behaved in such a way: but the area did harbour such people who made it almost impossible for the reporters to walk on the streets.

Again, in Bristol South, there are areas which remain predominantly white. In the 80s I was on a selection panel to shortlist Parliamentary candidates for the Bristol constituencies. There was one quite well-known black lawyer who applied for the Bristol South constituency, but the local reps said it would be better to persuade him to stand in Bristol West because he would stand no chance in Bristol South.

[Beef Oven!]

I cut out most of the answer that I'd laboured over, but I was going to point out the difference between areas which are very culturally mixed and those which aren't.

Bristol East (and parts of Bristol West) are very mixed, and there is very little aggro there. But you may remember the Panorama programme a few years ago called 'Hate on the Doorstep' in which two Asian BBC reporters went into the Southmead area and were horrifyingly abused. A boy of about 12 was even filmed threatening one of them. Of course, there were many local people who were upset at the way their neighbourhood had been portrayed - and with good reason, since they themselves would never have behaved in such a way: but the area did harbour such people who made it almost impossible for the reporters to walk on the streets.

Again, in Bristol South, there are areas which remain predominantly white. In the 80s I was on a selection panel to shortlist Parliamentary candidates for the Bristol constituencies. There was one quite well-known black lawyer who applied for the Bristol South constituency, but the local reps said it would be better to persuade him to stand in Bristol West because he would stand no chance in Bristol South.

Indeed, it's quite complicated. But are we not falling into a trap of our own making by discussing race, purely because we happened to be talking about UKIP?

[french frank]

Indeed, it's quite complicated. But are we not falling into a trap of our own making by discussing race, purely because we happened to be talking about UKIP?

Yes, perhaps you would expound your different view on the appeal of UKIP?

[Serial_Apologist]

E.A. Nordlinger, in his work 'Working Class Tories' from the late 60s (I read it in the mid 70s) argues that Britain, especially when compared to its continental neighbours, is essentially a conservative nation by character. This old, latterly ignored work, has never been surpassed as a simple snapshot of the British political character.

One possible reason for this being the case is the hugely advantageous trading relationship Britain established with the rest of the world in the 19th century, being first off the marks with the Industrial Revolution. The establishment of the Empire was another large factor insofar that this too gave huge advantages to the British ruling class, who were able to offer political and economic concessions to the working class - albeit reluctantly - this helping seal an identification of the working class with its social superiors, as was not the case on continental Europe where lack of concessions resulted in revolutionary, rather than reformist politics being the order from the mid-19th to mid-20th centuries. A further ideological consideration was the role played by the Church in validating Britain's usurpation of huge tracts of far-off lands in the name of a civilising mission abroad, acting as alibis in the material plunder of the third world ("the Conservative Party at prayer"), while inculcating social equanimity at home - "The rich man in his castle, the poor man at his gate", etc etc, though here of course radical priests preached the need to campaign and organise for better working conditions and living standards without recourse to revolution, aiding and aided by the founding principles and constitution of trade unions as guilds initially, essentially, more interested in the "labour aristocracy", and the Labour Party similarly, which the rich in Britain were for the above reasons in an advantaged position to concede.

[Beef Oven!]

Yes, perhaps you would expound your different view on the appeal of UKIP?

Ravel Day starts in 6 hours and 40 minutes, so I'm off to bed.

[aeolium]

This sort of study is not, in my opinion better, never mind far better, in that it tells worried Conservatives how UKIP is increasing in appeal and doesn't get to the fundamental reasons as to why (although it does go in for a few 'News Night' type superficial reasons). The why bit is actually quite simple and lies within what the basic British political character is.

I'm afraid I don't believe in simplistic analyses of "the basic British political character" as if this was unvarying. Britain has changed enormously since the war and attitudes have changed correspondingly (compare the routine and open racism in the 1950s with the much greater tolerance and acceptance of a multiracial society now). Studies which look at what people who vote a certain way feel is important to them do imv go a long way towards explaining the appeal of a particular party, and the demographics are useful in analysing what kinds of people are likely to be its supporters.

[jean]

Who are you quoting?

[aeolium]

Who are you quoting?

Beef Oven, msg 167 (sorry, sometimes I just cut and paste rather than using "Reply with Quote")

[Flosshilde]

Demography is not on UKIP's side, and the window of opportunity for them will close before too soon.

Hooray!

But presumably their sole purpose is to get the UK (or what's left of it after September 2014) out of the EU. Once that's been achieved (or failed) then they have no reason to exist - rather like the SNP after September. Or will they just keep banging on about it, even when a referendum rejects their core purpose?

[Flosshilde]

Ravel Day starts in 6 hours and 40 minutes, so I'm off to bed.

Doing a runner & avoiding the question. I wonder if he's woken up yet?

[Beef Oven!]

Doing a runner & avoiding the question. I wonder if he's woken up yet?

No, he's still dead, but his music lives on.