The Australian Election result

[An_Inspector_Calls]

I would advise Mr Abbott to consult the forthcoming (late September) IPCC SPM document, calmly discussed here:

http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/15/leaked-ipcc-report-discussed-in-the-msm/

and more stridently here:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2420783/Global-warming-just-HALF-said-Worlds-climate-scientists-admit-computers-got-effects-greenhouse-gases-wrong.html

which, for what it's worth, is close to my view.

[amateur51]

I would advise Mr Abbott to consult the forthcoming (late September) IPCC SPM document, calmly discussed here:

http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/15/leaked-ipcc-report-discussed-in-the-msm/

and more stridently here:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2420783/Global-warming-just-HALF-said-Worlds-climate-scientists-admit-computers-got-effects-greenhouse-gases-wrong.html

which, for what it's worth, is close to my view.

You still call it 'global warming' Inspector?

And half as bad is nothing to worry about then? Tell that to the Islanders.

Sheeeeeesh!

[Mr Pee]

I would advise Mr Abbott to consult the forthcoming (late September) IPCC SPM document, calmly discussed here:

http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/15/leaked-ipcc-report-discussed-in-the-msm/

and more stridently here:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2420783/Global-warming-just-HALF-said-Worlds-climate-scientists-admit-computers-got-effects-greenhouse-gases-wrong.html

which, for what it's worth, is close to my view.

I think that in a decade or so the whole global warming scare will be seen to have been nothing more than a load of hot air. Rather like the much-vaunted millennium bug, it will turn out to have been a lot of fuss about nothing, although no doubt Governments will continue to clobber us with so- called 'green' taxes, and despoil the countryside with ugly and inefficient wind turbines.

[MrGongGong]

I think that in a decade or so the whole global warming scare will be seen to have been nothing more than a load of hot air. Rather like the much-vaunted millennium bug, it will turn out to have been a lot of fuss about nothing, although no doubt Governments will continue to clobber us with so- called 'green' taxes, and despoil the countryside with ugly and inefficient wind turbines.

hows your house in the Maldives ?
It's probably fine for you
though I would avoid moving to Bangladesh in the next decade or so

[amateur51]

I think that in a decade or so the whole global warming scare will be seen to have been nothing more than a load of hot air. Rather like the much-vaunted millennium bug, it will turn out to have been a lot of fuss about nothing, although no doubt Governments will continue to clobber us with so- called 'green' taxes, and despoil the countryside with ugly and inefficient wind turbines.

But from you recently posted sunset pix, you live on the coast Mr Pee

[Mr Pee]

I do live on the coast; and the South Downs National Park is a few miles to the North.

Your point being?

[anotherbob]

I think that in a decade or so the whole global warming scare will be seen to have been nothing more than a load of hot air...

Whether or not this was meant, I enjoyed it.

[MrGongGong]

I do live on the coast; and the South Downs National Park is a few miles to the North.

Your point being?

The seas are rising as the earth is warming ......... fine if you live on a hill
BUT if you live in Bangladesh it's not
but that's not a problem for the rich folk is it so lets not worry too much about it shall we .........

[amateur51]

I do live on the coast; and the South Downs National Park is a few miles to the North.

Your point being?

Well any rise in sea levels will be felt most acutely on the coast Mr Pee.

I do hope you're right, for your sake.

[An_Inspector_Calls]

GongGong and Amateur51: from the strength of your concern about sea level rise I assume you have expert knowledge of its predicted rise.

What are your views on this matter?

What advice would you give Mr Abbott?

[MrGongGong]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/maldives-ndash-home-of-rising-sea-levels-and-the-green-elites-new-meeting-place-2145543.html

[french frank]

I would advise Mr Abbott to consult the forthcoming (late September) IPCC SPM document, calmly discussed here:

http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/15/leaked-ipcc-report-discussed-in-the-msm/

and more stridently here:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2420783/Global-warming-just-HALF-said-Worlds-climate-scientists-admit-computers-got-effects-greenhouse-gases-wrong.html

which, for what it's worth, is close to my view.

Reading Judith Curry's academic paper, the final sentence reads:

"Returning to my experiences with decision makers in using weather and seasonal climate forecasts, I would like to remind that uncertainty about the future climate is a two edged sword. There are two situations to avoid: i) issuing a highly confident statement about the future that turns out to be wrong; and ii) missing the possibility of an extreme, catastrophic outcome. Avoiding both of these situations requires much deeper and better assessment of uncertainties and areas of ignorance, as well as creating a broader range of future scenarios than is currently provided by climate models."

In other words, 'possibilities' are not to be ignored because they remain subjects of uncertainty.

On the one hand she picks up on the IPCC 'confident statements'; on the other she does not rule out 'an extreme, catastrophic outcome'.

Castigating the first whilst closing one's eyes to the second is what she is advising against.

[An_Inspector_Calls]

As so often happens with your back-referencing, I cannot find your quote:

"Returning to my experiences with decision makers in using weather and seasonal climate forecasts, I would like to remind that uncertainty about the future climate is a two edged sword. There are two situations to avoid: i) issuing a highly confident statement about the future that turns out to be wrong; and ii) missing the possibility of an extreme, catastrophic outcome. Avoiding both of these situations requires much deeper and better assessment of uncertainties and areas of ignorance, as well as creating a broader range of future scenarios than is currently provided by climate models."

in the Judith Curry article that I linked.

Indeed, the final paragraph in my reference reads:

Personally, I think these leaks are a good thing. An even better thing would be to make all formal drafts publicly available so that they can be discussed. Pressure from the MSM has resulted in the pause being mentioned in this draft (but not the previous ones). The best thing, IMO, would be to abandon the entire IPCC process, and have the AR5 be the final report.

You're referencing Judith Curry's 'paper'. She's written hundreds! Can you clarify the source for your quote so that we can avoid several needless posts just establishing what you're saying?

As for what Curry says (albeit drawing from weather and seasonal [weather] forecasts) it is quite reasonable. It was always the case: there's always has been and always will be the low possibility of an extreme, catastrophic weather event. The IPCC has not really concerned itself with any understanding or prediction of extreme climate events such as the rapid onset of another ice age. We still don't even understand what causes the onset of an ice age. But I don't have the context of your Curry quotation, so that might be missing what she was saying.

What I think you're hinting at is application of the Precautionary Principle, a recipe for total inaction. That would include, in my book, not erecting any more solar panels for the fear that reflecting that much sunlight back into space might cause the next ice age.

[jean]

As for what Curry says...it is quite reasonable.

Not everyone thinks so.

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Judith_Curry

[An_Inspector_Calls]

Can't trash the science, so trash the person - love it!