Damascus gas attack - who did it and how will the west spin it ?

[Resurrection Man]

They were reported as having sigint + other info connecting Assad with attack - also reported as offering the US a list of potential targets.

.....

Therein lies the rub. Past history shows that sig-int isn't all that reliable or is altered to suit the case. But that doesn't necessarily mean that ALL sig-int should be tarred by the same brush.

[eighthobstruction]

....http://www.dw.de/iran-has-plan-b-for...-10269-html-cb

[Richard Barrett]

Guardian, 26 October 2011:

"What is now known, however, is that while the death toll in Libya when Nato intervened was perhaps around 1,000-2,000 (judging by UN estimates), eight months later it is probably more than ten times that figure. Estimates of the numbers of dead over the last eight months – as Nato leaders vetoed ceasefires and negotiations – range from 10,000 up to 50,000. The National Transitional Council puts the losses at 30,000 dead and 50,000 wounded."

[Resurrection Man]

Guardian, 26 October 2011:

"What is now known, however, is that while the death toll in Libya when Nato intervened was perhaps around 1,000-2,000 (judging by UN estimates), eight months later it is probably more than ten times that figure. Estimates of the numbers of dead over the last eight months – as Nato leaders vetoed ceasefires and negotiations – range from 10,000 up to 50,000. The National Transitional Council puts the losses at 30,000 dead and 50,000 wounded."

Many thanks.

[Richard Barrett]

From the Independent:

"Mr Cameron and his deputy, Nick Clegg, appeared to imply that such action could take place without a mandate from the UN Security Council – or without waiting for weapons inspectors to report on their examination of the site of the alleged attack in Damscus last week, during which hundreds are reported to have died. Foreign Office lawyers and the Attorney General, Dominic Grieve, are understood already to have examined the legal route for military intervention in Syria using a controversial UN “ humanitarian” exemption that allows action without the Security Council’s authority."

Where have we heard that before? and what was the result last time?

[zoomy]

Syria calling western bluff on inspections has resulted in Hague building his case for rubbishing the results if they do not support him.

Cameron - I will not be bound by what the UN inspectors may find.

When the west attacks, the corporate media agenda will quickly move on to to the western military action. The question of who did the gas attack (the pretext for action) will be quickly forgotten.

[Resurrection Man]

From the Independent:

"Mr Cameron and his deputy, Nick Clegg, appeared to imply that such action could take place without a mandate from the UN Security Council – or without waiting for weapons inspectors to report on their examination of the site of the alleged attack in Damscus last week, during which hundreds are reported to have died. Foreign Office lawyers and the Attorney General, Dominic Grieve, are understood already to have examined the legal route for military intervention in Syria using a controversial UN “ humanitarian” exemption that allows action without the Security Council’s authority."

Where have we heard that before? and what was the result last time?

Tony Blair knows the answer to that one.

I agree. The spin coming out of Downing Street is even too much for me.

[johnb]

I find the talk from Downing Street and the White House frighteningly reminiscent of ten years ago.

There was an interesting interview with Alastair Crooke on The World at One. A snippet of what he said was repeated on the 6pm news - the chosen snippet tended to support the Downing St line. (Very often the BBC tends to water down 'controversial' aspects of its news reporting as the day progresses.)

According to Wikipedia, Alastair Crooke is a British diplomat, the founder and director of the Conflicts Forum, an organisation that advocates for engagement between political Islam and the West. Previously he was a ranking figure in both British intelligence (MI6) and European Union diplomacy.

Well I think it's fairly clear that the Israeli press has made it explicit this morning in a news paper called [didn't catch the name] saying that Israel has supplied most of the incriminating intelligence from intercept material (that is communication interception material) and also supplied the west with, if you like, a portfolio of targets in Syria which they could hit if they so chose. This intelligence has also been supplemented by Saudi Arabian assets who have indeed flown some of the victims to Britain amongst other European states in order to show that they have sarin samples in their skin. So I think this is what we are talking about more than any other.

Now the question is whether the west has been able to verify that intelligence that has been passed to them and I think if you decode and listen very carefully to what Mr Hagel [US Defense Secretary] was saying, that he was saying there is a supposition there - but actually there is no hard evidence as to who used or who committed this crime.

Clearly there has been a use of weapons and it's appalling. But the question is who is using it. He [Chuck Hagel] then suggested that everyone, of course, is aware and agrees with the assessment of Britain and France and America, but this is not the case. Russia very clearly is saying that they have other evidence - they do not believe that Assad was responsible. They have many people on the ground there, in the ministries themselves, working along with the defence ministry. And just yesterday the Iranians told Jeffrey Feltman who is the Assistant Secretary General [and] who is visiting Tehran that the Iranians are 100% sure that it wasn't Assad's forces who used gas (sarin gas) or chemical weapons. That they have satellite imagery and other images to back it up and they are willing to provide those images to the UN Inspection Team if required.
......
......
Sarin is not a complicated thing to manufacture. It is not complicated thing to deliver. It's quite feasible for an opposition group to deliver it. Any graduate chemistry student would be capable of making sarin. If he couldn't make saring with the ideal chemicals it would be quite possible to substitute other chemicals without degrading the effectiveness of the agent.

[zoomy]

Hey, thanks Johnb, that is a very informative transcript.

[Richard Barrett]

Hey, thanks Johnb, that is a very informative transcript.

Yes, many thanks.

[DracoM]

Much more carefully judicious than he was edited as saying ion WATO.

If a million people marched to stop the Iraq War and still did not dissuade Blair, and turned him into a pariah in UK, do you think Cameron will go the same way?
This is a fantastically complicated issue, and I am truly scared that we are about to spearhead yet another WESTERN essay in vainglory and self-righteousness in of all places the islamic furnace that is the Middle East.

Are the politicians totally out of their minds?

Reminds be of the thrust forward chin and the officer getting high on sniffing napalm in the morning.

This is govt by telly: do something dramatic quickly to appease them.
Have ANY of our politicians read the YouGov polls on this?

[Sydney Grew]

. . . The question of who did the gas attack (the pretext for action) will be quickly forgotten.

I have my own idea about that question and will say no more.

[Pabmusic]

This is quite a good article about the legality of war:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23855428

[ahinton]

I have my own idea about that question and will say no more.

Well that's not very helpful, is it?! Why tell us that you have such an idea only to announce your resolve to keep quiet about it?

[ahinton]

Much more carefully judicious than he was edited as saying ion WATO.

If a million people marched to stop the Iraq War and still did not dissuade Blair, and turned him into a pariah in UK, do you think Cameron will go the same way?
This is a fantastically complicated issue, and I am truly scared that we are about to spearhead yet another WESTERN essay in vainglory and self-righteousness in of all places the islamic furnace that is the Middle East.

Are the politicians totally out of their minds?

Reminds be of the thrust forward chin and the officer getting high on sniffing napalm in the morning.

This is govt by telly: do something dramatic quickly to appease them.
Have ANY of our politicians read the YouGov polls on this?

You could be forgiven for thinking that, for the most part, they hadn't; I fear, however, that they have but are looking increasingly set to contemplate acting in ways strongly suggestive of a determination to ignore them whether or not they might then go away.

I share your fear as expreessed here; I imagine that millions of others do likewise.