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It would almost be funny were the situation itself not so very serious - and to stick on a repetition of Mr Ashdown's recent remark as a pendant to consideration of Mr Blair's unique knowledge and wisdom hardly rescues it.Originally posted by Beef Oven! View PostComment
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"...the isle is full of noises,
Sounds and sweet airs, that give delight and hurt not.
Sometimes a thousand twangling instruments
Will hum about mine ears, and sometime voices..."
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An interesting development....http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24022866bong chingComment
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Quite... is it now becoming possible to hope that perhaps there won't be a conflagration in Syria after all?Originally posted by eighthobstruction View PostComment
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Except that there has already been something of a conflagration, if c 120,000 dead and over 4 million refugees count for anything - and no sign of any end in sight, irrespective of whether the US intervenes or not.Originally posted by Richard Barrett View PostComment
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Yes I know that of course, but if the US "intervenes" things would probably get a lot worse, as they usually do.Originally posted by aeolium View PostComment
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Indeed they would; much as I suspect Russian motives, I would still love to think that some of the intense heat might be taken out of this by an agreement to yield up these weapons so that they may be seen and destroyed, regardless of whose they are. I'm no optimist, but I'd still like to think that something good - or at the very least something less bad - might possibly emerge from this latest development...Originally posted by Richard Barrett View PostComment
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I agree, it would make a disastrous situation worse, though it does seem now as though the odds are slightly against direct US intervention, as it seems to be very unpopular among the US public and Obama probably doesn't have the votes in Congress - and also thanks to Kerry's unintended 'proposal' which has been taken up by several countries.Originally posted by Richard Barrett View Post
Serious though the chemical weapons issue is, it is something of a sideshow compared with the problem of ending the civil war. And here the factors working towards a continuation of the war seem to me to greatly outnumber those influencing the move towards peace. Assad has little incentive to negotiate when he feels he has the support of powerful allies including Russia and Iran and has been making progress in pushing back rebel advances in 2013. The rebels have lost too much and are too violently opposed to the continuance of Assad/the Alawites in power, and they now include powerful factions pressing for the creation of an Islamic state, based around the Sunni majority. Russia does not want to lose a long-standing reliable ally in the region and see Assad replaced by a coalition of Islamists who would probably be hostile (and Putin doesn't care how many people Assad kills as he probably views them as Islamist scum no better than the Chechnyan rebels he wiped out). Iran and its ally Hezbollah do not want the Alawites replaced by their arch-enemies the Sunnis. Saudi Arabia and Qatar, both Wahabist Sunni regimes operating Islamic law, want to see the Alawites overthrown and replaced by a Sunni Islamic regime friendly to them (and Sunnis constitute a 60% majority of the Syrian population). Turkey is hostile to Assad particularly over numerous border incidents and also the large number of refugees pouring in to Turkey as a result of the civil war. The US and its western allies are hostile because of their belated support for the Arab Spring and also because Syria seems to be a proxy cold-war situation (even though the cold war is supposed to have finished). They have been committed for so long to the position that Assad should go that it is hard to see a negotiated settlement in which he remained. So the odds are stacked heavily in favour of the war being fought out to a finish, or at least a standstill.Last edited by aeolium; 10-09-13, 09:50.Comment
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That résumé makes the Balkans of the past sound like a picnic. I agree that the chemical weapons, vile and sinister though they are, are also an emotive headline grabber that diverts attention from the real horror of the situation. The idea that 'humanitarian concerns' must prevail in a situation like this seems a frail hope.It isn't given us to know those rare moments when people are wide open and the lightest touch can wither or heal. A moment too late and we can never reach them any more in this world.Comment
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Aljazeera News has been very interesting on this (83 on Freeview)....bong chingComment
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An interesting programme on Radio 4 last evening, What Does Syria Mean For Britain? by John Kampfner. Each time that Blair spoke I found myself growling at the radio, such was his disingenuity and self-assurance.
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I have the feeling that Obama was very pleased with the Russian proposal - he might have got a senate vote through but he was unlikely to get a congress vote in his favour, the UK had already refused to join his coalition leaving him pretty much without a coalition and there are serious doubts as to whether the Assad regime actually did carry out the attack anyway.
Add to this the fact that Russia was hardening its line in the sand on Syria considerably and the unpalatable nature of many of the rebels - eating the heart of a victim, sawing the arms and legs off another while still alive etc. and Obama was probably glad to hold on to Putin and Lavrov's master stroke initiative.Comment
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Evidence (again) regarding the 'doubt'....or a figment of your imagination ?Originally posted by zoomy View Post
Frankly staggered at your blatant pro-Assad regime propaganda. What about the atrocities carried out by the Syrian Assad forces? Both as bad as each other. There seems to be differing views as to whether he actually ate the heart or not. I cannot find any reference to sawing arms and legs off. There is reference to a Syrian rebel being buried alive at gunpoint.Comment
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