State of the parties as 2015 General Election looms.

[Beef Oven!]

What this comment epitomises IMV is the whole "anti thought" idea. Don't think too much as it will make your brain ache and it's only "quasi-religious Marxist stuff" anyway, just get your head down and take things as they are.

This



Is a good analysis.
Unless people in politics actually start to think about wider things than self-interest we really are doomed.

But you've come too late to it MrGG. You've missed the boat. These ideas have had their day, capitalism and democracy are here to stay.

[MrGongGong]

But you've come too late to it MrGG. You've missed the boat. These ideas have had their day, capitalism and democracy are here to stay.

I'm not going to tell you what this is because you already know (google it if you like)

Maybe the "State of the Parties" is (with a couple of exceptions Jean) is what David Byrne said

"Same as it ever was"

The tragedy of UKIP is that they seem (for now) to be fooling people into believing that they are somehow different when they aren't, same old free market Capitalism.
The alternatives (PLURAL) are more than we could imagine if people actually thought about it.

I think the blue Rizlas will be needed if you want to get one between them

I would have thought it was obvious. One of the reasons we have to put up with all the UKIP nonsense is that the main parties are clearly not addressing the most important issues, not just the parochial ones but the global ones, instead inventing fears and anxieties which might just be small enough for them to address without upsetting the neoliberal applecart, like "mass immigration" etc. etc. - the "state of the parties" is a state of small-minded denial. Does that make sense to you now? (some hope, I know)

Makes sense to me
and doesn't suggest in any way that we should emulate North Korea

[Beef Oven!]

The Conservatives edge ahead of Labour in a YouGov daily poll, for the first time in two years.

Cons 35%

Lab 34%

UKIP 14%

LibDem 6%

The Green Party, Britain's de facto socialist option, are not mentioned in this article.

However, In a recent Redbox sponsored YouGov poll, focussing on responses to 'if a party could win the seat, how likely is it that you would vote for a particular party', The Green Party soars into third place.

Extract from narrative:

It turns out that 35 per cent are "likely" for the Conservatives, 35 per cent for Labour too, the Greens come third at 26 per cent, then Ukip at 24 per cent, and the LibDems are fifth with 16 per cent. The Ukip number is still impressive, but one realises the Greens are actually more popular, just not considered capable of winning in any one seat. Once upon a time the Lib Dems would actually have topped such a poll, and the electoral map could be painted in hopeful yellow, so the real surprise is that their number is now so low.

[french frank]

Once upon a time the Lib Dems would actually have topped such a poll, and the electoral map could be painted in hopeful yellow, so the real surprise is that their number is now so low.

It isn't really at all surprising, is it, considering the changed circumstances? It will be a surprise to most people if they do better than their poll rating.

This is the YouGov poll from 2 October, is it, just after the Conservative Party conference?

[Flosshilde]

capitalism and democracy are here to stay.

I think 'capitalism' as it has developed - ie globalised, free market, fingers in government, expoitative - and 'democracy' are mutually exclusive concepts. Democracy does imply that there is a choice between alternatives - Labour & Tories are becoming like Democrat & Republican in the USA, with one slightly less to the right than the other. Fortunately we have other parties that might still be able to have some impact on Labour or Tory policies in a hung Parliament. The rise of UKIP, the Greens and the SNP are a welcome feature in today's political landscape, even if people are perhaps reluctant to vote for them if they are not likely to win a seat; if the LibDems and Labour between them hadn't cocked up the opportunity of a break from the first past the post system they might have been able to have more impact.

[aeolium]

Actually, as at yesterday (24/11/14) YouGov had the Tories 4 points behind Labour:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/11/25/labour-lead-4/

What's more, this ties in with 2 other polls conducted around the same date by Populus and Michael Ashcroft's polling organisation:

http://may2015.com/featured/three-polls-put-labour-up-5-5-and-4-points-whats-changed/

The Ashcroft poll has the Tories at a very low 27%. In the BBC's poll of polls they are currently averaging 31%. It seems highly unlikely that they can turn this into an election-winning result, though it's still possible (I think unlikely) for them to end up as the largest party but without an overall majority.

[Beef Oven!]

[QUOTE=french frank;445270]

It isn't really at all surprising, is it, considering the changed circumstances? It will be a surprise to most people if they do better than their poll rating.

I agree, the statement concerning the LibDems describes a situation that can't be a surprise, but it is definitely a significant change from, say 2011 and is noteworthy, at least! Anyway, the most interesting point concerns the Green Party, IMV.

This is the YouGov poll from 2 October, is it, just after the Conservative Party conference?[

It's from a YouGov email, sent to me today, referring to the position following the Conservative party conference.

[MrGongGong]

I think 'capitalism' as it has developed - ie globalised, free market, fingers in government, expoitative - and 'democracy' are mutually exclusive concepts.

Indeed
A bit like the "Freedom and Democracy" narrative.
Say them in the same sentence enough (Asylum seeker & migrants, benefit & scrounger) and people will believe they go together like blue cheese and bananas.

[Richard Barrett]

I suspect that theories of Marx are happily endorsed by some on the right, who see a recipe for continued exploitation by avoiding the revolt of the masses.

I've always thought that the ruling class understand Marx better than many socialists, even if they wouldn't necessarily put it in those terms.

PGT, I'm not the one making a fuss about whether things are on- or off-topic. If, as you admit, my posts make "absolutely no sense" to you, presumably you aren't in a position to know how on- or off-topic they are, right?

BO, "By the 21 century, we have come to understand" - is this a royal "we" or are you thinking of some larger constituency? However that might be I believe you're celebrating the demise of Marx's ideas rather prematurely. What I see is that they are actually gaining currency at the moment. Numbers of bestselling books are using them as a point of reference, Thomas Piketty's Capital in the 21st Century being the most prominent example. I was reading somewhere that sales of Marx's books have increased enormously since the 2008 financial meltdown, perhaps because the ideas in them are in fact the most precise and potentially fruitful way to analyse such events.

[french frank]

It's from a YouGov email, sent to me today, referring to the position following the Conservative party conference.

I got it too, but as they gave a link to the Telegraph article I looked it up to see when the poll was carried out. Party conferences tend to give parties a boost, so I would take it to mean:

The Conservatives are not as unpopular as people might think, considering they have been in government for four and a half years.

Ed Miliband is not doing well, and does appear to be holding Labour back.

The Lib Dems have suffered appallingly (justly or disproportionately, depending on your bias) from having been in coalition with the Conservatives - who themselves are doing relatively well

UKIP is, as we know from the press, popular on account of it anti-EU, anti-immigrant stance which gets plenty of publicity from sections of the press.

The Greens are the wild card.

[Beef Oven!]

BO, "By the 21 century, we have come to understand" - is this a royal "we" or are you thinking of some larger constituency? However that might be I believe you're celebrating the demise of Marx's ideas rather prematurely. What I see is that they are actually gaining currency at the moment. Numbers of bestselling books are using them as a point of reference, Thomas Piketty's Capital in the 21st Century being the most prominent example. I was reading somewhere that sales of Marx's books have increased enormously since the 2008 financial meltdown, perhaps because the ideas in them are in fact the most precise and potentially fruitful way to analyse such events.

So long as they are just reading books and not storming winter palaces, or collectivising peasants etc, I'm not troubled.

Btw, I'm not celebrating the demise of Marxism, I'm noting it.

[Beef Oven!]

I got it too, but as they gave a link to the Telegraph article I looked it up to see when the poll was carried out. Party conferences tend to give parties a boost, so I would take it to mean:

The Conservatives are not as unpopular as people might think, considering they have been in government for four and a half years.

Ed Miliband is not doing well, and does appear to be holding Labour back.

The Lib Dems have suffered appallingly (justly or disproportionately, depending on your bias) from having been in coalition with the Conservatives - who themselves are doing relatively well

UKIP is, as we know from the press, popular on account of it anti-EU, anti-immigrant stance which gets plenty of publicity from sections of the press.

The Greens are the wild card.

I'd go along with all of that, and I think that your point about the Conservatives being not as unpopular as we might expect is worth further attention.

Is it a sort of zero-sum game? By that I mean that post-war British politics is pretty much a two-horse race. If Labour 'mess-up' when it's their turn to win, then it's the Conservatives who will benefit most, pretty much.

As I've said before, I don't see the UKIP getting more than up to 5 seats, unless they get votes from both the Conservatives and Labour. That would be a major change to British electoral politics in my view (SDP having around 14 MPS even before they launched, and therefore not grass-root as per the UKIP).

[Risorgimento]

I think the Greens are a lost cause. I'll put money on a coalition between UKIP and the Conservatives. While Flobadob Moribund remains in charge of Labour then they are not going to fare very well and it's too late for Labour to get rid of him. Even if they did, the available choice of contenders is pretty limited verging on zero. Ed Balls as Prime Minister ? Yvette Cooper ? Ye Gods.

[Beef Oven!]

I think the Greens are a lost cause. I'll put money on a coalition between UKIP and the Conservatives. While Flobadob Moribund remains in charge of Labour then they are not going to fare very well and it's too late for Labour to get rid of him. Even if they did, the available choice of contenders is pretty limited verging on zero. Ed Balls as Prime Minister ? Yvette Cooper ? Ye Gods.

Hey Garibaldi, how about a bit of analysis? ;-)

[french frank]

If Labour 'mess-up' when it's their turn to win, then it's the Conservatives who will benefit most, pretty much.

Indeed - and vice versa. Back and forth, and every so often 13 years of Tory/Labour misrule.