State of the parties as 2015 General Election looms.

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  • Flosshilde
    Full Member
    • Nov 2010
    • 7988

    Quite; much has been made (by the media) of UKIP 'winning' two by-elections, when they've been really won by sitting MPs. It will be time to get excited when UKIP win by-elections with new candidates, & even more when they win seats in a general election.

    Comment

    • amateur51

      Originally posted by P. G. Tipps View Post
      Now, that's not very nice, but I'm sure it would be deemed perfectly acceptable by the Metropolitan Liberal (pseudo-Marxist) Elite, so very PC indeed!
      Why not start a thread on this fantasy subject of yours scottyTipps?

      Who knows, someone made decide to subvert it, just to irritate you for a change.

      Comment

      • Beef Oven!
        Ex-member
        • Sep 2013
        • 18147

        Originally posted by Flosshilde View Post
        Quite; much has been made (by the media) of UKIP 'winning' two by-elections, when they've been really won by sitting MPs. It will be time to get excited when UKIP win by-elections with new candidates, & even more when they win seats in a general election.
        Indeed. That's part of the reason why I estimate 5 seats, as it stands.

        Comment

        • ahinton
          Full Member
          • Nov 2010
          • 16123

          Originally posted by Beef Oven! View Post
          As things stand, even if they field 650 candidates, I can't see where any more than 5 seats are coming from. Let's forget about this 12 candidates idea, they're obviously going to field a very large number of candidates, come May.
          It's not for you or me to say how many candidates UKIP might field when it comes to that election; all that we can consider is the number that it appeara so far to have said that it will field and the number out of those whom they expect to win seats and, if that changes between now and the time by which they have to commit to whatever number of candidates it decides to put forward, so be it.

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          • ahinton
            Full Member
            • Nov 2010
            • 16123

            Originally posted by amateur51 View Post
            Depends on how many Tories with large majorities defect to UKIP, I guess
            If indeed any more of them do so between now and decision time, that might increase the number from 12 but not by many, I imagine; such defection on a sufficiently significant scale seems wholly improbable.

            Comment

            • ahinton
              Full Member
              • Nov 2010
              • 16123

              Originally posted by Flosshilde View Post
              Quite; much has been made (by the media) of UKIP 'winning' two by-elections, when they've been really won by sitting MPs. It will be time to get excited when UKIP win by-elections with new candidates, & even more when they win seats in a general election.
              Well, that is indeed true, of course, but when the numbers talked about to date are from single figures up to a mere dozen (for the time being, at least), that hardly seems to matter, actually.
              Last edited by ahinton; 24-11-14, 12:02.

              Comment

              • Beef Oven!
                Ex-member
                • Sep 2013
                • 18147

                Originally posted by ahinton View Post
                It's not for you or me to say how many candidates UKIP might field when it comes to that election; all that we can consider is the number that it appeara so far to have said that it will field and the number out of those whom they expect to win seats and, if that changes between now and the time by which they have to commit to whatever number of candidates it decides to put forward, so be it.
                It's what parties do at general elections, so expect a hell of a lot more UKIP candidates.

                Comment

                • ahinton
                  Full Member
                  • Nov 2010
                  • 16123

                  Originally posted by Beef Oven! View Post
                  Indeed. That's part of the reason why I estimate 5 seats, as it stands.
                  That's what the party itself reckons to estimate and you evidently agree (and you have no obvious reason to do otherwise); if 3-5 out of 12 changes to higher numbers out of a higher number over time between now and decision time, forecasts can accordingly be revised but until and unless that happens or, as am51 suggests, there are more defections, we'll have to go for the time being with the figures with which we've so far been presented.

                  Comment

                  • visualnickmos
                    Full Member
                    • Nov 2010
                    • 3610

                    Originally posted by beef oven! View Post
                    buttocks? (my reading glasses are in the other room)
                    bollocks!

                    Comment

                    • Beef Oven!
                      Ex-member
                      • Sep 2013
                      • 18147

                      Originally posted by visualnickmos View Post
                      buttocks!
                      Steady on!

                      Comment

                      • ahinton
                        Full Member
                        • Nov 2010
                        • 16123

                        Originally posted by Beef Oven! View Post
                        It's what parties do at general elections, so expect a hell of a lot more UKIP candidates.
                        There might indeed be, although NF's not yet indicated that the party might indeed field many more; as a matter of fact, I'd be very surprised if it didn't do just that, especially as the Greens are supposedly expecting to field candidates in some 3 out of every 4 constituencies. If indeed UKIP does end up fielding considerably more candidates, it might well upset the balance so that the likelihood of any party forming a majority government becomes even less that is appears to be now. That's whaty I imagine the UKIP effect to be next May.

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                        • ahinton
                          Full Member
                          • Nov 2010
                          • 16123

                          Originally posted by Beef Oven! View Post
                          Steady on!
                          Bartók's, please.

                          Comment

                          • visualnickmos
                            Full Member
                            • Nov 2010
                            • 3610

                            Originally posted by Beef Oven! View Post
                            Steady on!
                            OK - so you are an arsehole fetishist. Whatever lights your fire......

                            Should have been obvious - you said you'd vote for them.

                            Comment

                            • P. G. Tipps
                              Full Member
                              • Jun 2014
                              • 2978

                              Originally posted by visualnickmos View Post
                              bollocks!
                              Isn't that taking a rather gender-discriminatory, exclusively-male hierarchical and misogynistic view of things?

                              Comment

                              • visualnickmos
                                Full Member
                                • Nov 2010
                                • 3610

                                Originally posted by P. G. Tipps View Post
                                Isn't that taking a rather gender-discriminatory, exclusively-male hierarchical and misogynistic view of things?

                                Yes. Freedom of speech and expression. Problem?

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