HoLords reform hits the skids

[french frank]

Labour constituencies more likely to be in areas where there is a higher incidence of economic deprivation and the economically deprived are less likely to vote - concluding (reasonably enough) that they will remain deprived whoever is in government.

It's one (strong) reason for voter apathy, but there is also a question of local 'tradition' in that when pre-election messages stress a likely turnout rate (e.g. '60% of those questioned say they are likely to vote') people say they are more likely to vote. If the abstention rate is stressed (e.g. 40%), they say they are less likely to vote. People are influenced by what they see as the norm which is also affected by talking to friends and neighbours.

And whereas you can say that the economically deprived are less likely to vote, the reverse might be that they would think that - given a choice between Tory and Labour - they would prefer Labour.

And what about the LibDems, of fond memory?

LibDem policy has been to identify the constituencies where they have a chance of doing well, since they have neither the human nor the financial resources that Lab and Tory have to contest every constituency strongly. Consequently, where they fight, the turnout will be on the higher side as pre-election political activity raises awareness and thus tends to raise turnout.


Another point: in strongly Labour areas people seem to see it as less urgent to turn out and vote: their candidate will win anyway. Tories see it as a civic duty ...

[amateur51]

It's one (strong) reason for voter apathy, but there is also a question of local 'tradition' in that when pre-election messages stress a likely turnout rate (e.g. '60% of those questioned say they are likely to vote') people say they are more likely to vote. If the abstention rate is stressed (e.g. 40%), they say they are less likely to vote. People are influenced by what they see as the norm which is also affected by talking to friends and neighbours.

And whereas you can say that the economically deprived are less likely to vote, the reverse might be that they would think that - given a choice between Tory and Labour - they would prefer Labour.

Interesting stuff, french frank.

I'd like us to try a general election with no public opinion polls/public references to voting intentions at all. When I hear analysts saying 'well it's down to 30 key Tory marginals and Labour is 10 points ahead in the latest opinion polls' it makes me weep with impotent rage.

[aeolium]

And whereas you can say that the economically deprived are less likely to vote, the reverse might be that they would think that - given a choice between Tory and Labour - they would prefer Labour.

And, since Labour are more likely to win in economically deprived areas, some of them presumably do vote like that. But quite a lot seem to feel that there is no real difference between the main parties, and as far as economic policy is concerned I don't think they are far wrong (particularly re policies to reduce child poverty or make a significant dent in inequality, which might have a measurable impact on those people's lives).

[french frank]

But quite a lot seem to feel that there is no real difference between the main parties, and as far as economic policy is concerned I don't think they are far wrong (particularly re policies to reduce child poverty or make a significant dent in inequality, which might have a measurable impact on those people's lives).

So, the really Big Question in my mind is: after three Labour terms in office, most of it with a huge Commons majority, why didn't they - or why couldn't they - make a difference in those people's lives?

[amateur51]

So, the really Big Question in my mind is: after three Labour terms in office, most of it with a huge Commons majority, why didn't they - or why couldn't they - make a difference in those people's lives?

It took Labour 7 years to remove section 28 from the statute book, french frank but they did do it in the end

[JohnSkelton]

Another point: in strongly Labour areas people seem to see it as less urgent to turn out and vote: their candidate will win anyway. Tories see it as a civic duty ...

That's the proles for you - so irresponsible. Shudder. Do you have any evidence to back up that analysis? Or is it self-evident?

[Serial_Apologist]

That's the proles for you - so irresponsible. Shudder. Do you have any evidence to back up that analysis? Or is it self-evident?

One thing the well-to-do will always realise is that the Tories will always stand for their interests; the same cannot and has not been possible to claim for Labour governments on behalf of the economically deprived, with the honourable exception of the Attlee government. This experience of Labour governments who let down is now long deeply etched into working class consciousness. Even leaving aside its ingrained disadvantages - class society isn't just about two equally competing classes - Labour is hamstrung by its belief in political change by electoral means alone

[Flosshilde]

Turnout tends to be higher in Tory-held seats and lower in Labour ones. I wonder what that means ...

So, to make sure that the number of people voting is the same for every constituency (& that's the only measure of 'fairness'), safe Tory seats should be bigger (in terms of number of potential, rather than actual, voters) than safe Labour seats

[amateur51]

So, to make sure that the number of people voting is the same for every constituency (& that's the only measure of 'fairness'), safe Tory seats should be bigger (in terms of number of potential, rather than actual, voters) than safe Labour seats

But making the constituencies the same size only makes it fairer potentially- it's got bugger all to do with reality and experience and fairness unless you include those who vote 'None of the Above'

It's a mirage.

[LHC]

So, the really Big Question in my mind is: after three Labour terms in office, most of it with a huge Commons majority, why didn't they - or why couldn't they - make a difference in those people's lives?

They did; they made them far more dependent on state benefits than ever before.

Regrettably, this did nothing to reduce the disparity in wealth and income in society (indeed, under Labour the gap between the best and worst off continued to increase), but it did mean that there was a big increase in the proportion of the electorate dependent on state handouts and therefore more likely to vote for the party that offered them 'free' money. So, job done for New Labour, if not for the poorer sections of society.

[amateur51]

They did; they made them far more dependent on state benefits than ever before.

Regrettably, this did nothing to reduce the disparity in wealth and income in society (indeed, under Labour the gap between the best and worst off continued to increase), but it did mean that there was a big increase in the proportion of the electorate dependent on state handouts and therefore more likely to vote for the party that offered them 'free' money. So, job done for New Labour, if not for the poorer sections of society.

Was the increasing disparity entirely due to the failure of Labour's policies or because of a huge separate engine driving wealth at the top end, tax avoidance schemes, etc etc?

[JohnSkelton]

them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them themthem them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them themthem them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them themthem them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them themthem them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them themthem them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them themthem them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them themthem them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them themthem them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them themthem them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them themthem them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them themthem them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them them

Them.

[JohnSkelton]

One thing the well-to-do will always realise is that the Tories will always stand for their interests; the same cannot and has not been possible to claim for Labour governments on behalf of the economically deprived, with the honourable exception of the Attlee government. This experience of Labour governments who let down is now long deeply etched into working class consciousness. Even leaving aside its ingrained disadvantages - class society isn't just about two equally competing classes - Labour is hamstrung by its belief in political change by electoral means alone

Quite. Rational and empirically substantiated cynicism; it's a rather more complex story than "they" just sit at home watching the benefits funded TV feeding the - payed for by benefits or looted - microwave, though that would appear to be a more popular explanation round these parts.

[Resurrection Man]

Was the increasing disparity entirely due to the failure of Labour's policies or because of a huge separate engine driving wealth at the top end, tax avoidance schemes, etc etc?

I would argue 'both'.

[french frank]

That's the proles for you - so irresponsible. Shudder. Do you have any evidence to back up that analysis? Or is it self-evident?

The fact that in strongly Tory areas the turnout is still high. In strong Labour areas it tends to be low. The rest is my speculative explanation