What next for Greece?

[aeolium]

A genuine question: was not Argentina indebted to the States, in the same way Greece would still be to the EU?

I think, S_A, that Argentina had multiple creditors not only in the USA and a partial repayment was made in 2005 with the IMF designated as the main creditor, and another, final, debt settlement took place in 2010 for creditors who held out against that 2005 settlement. During those 9 years from default in 2001 Argentina had been frozen out of financial credit markets. Notably Venezuela seems to have helped out a lot with extensive purchases of Argentinian bonds:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_debt_restructuring

The sad thing to me about the German position is that I greatly admire the way Germany has created a very socially liberal and progressive society with excellent policies eg on the environment yet here its government is laying down a 'one-size-fits-all' policy which is having horrendous consequences. It is not too great an exaggeration to say that nearly 70 years after a Nazi regime was driven out of Greece, a German-led policy is resulting in home-grown neo-Nazis being elected to the Greek legislature, and to the rise of extremist parties throughout Europe. The EU politicians must start to think out of the economic box and realise what is happening.

[Lateralthinking1]

It is not too great an exaggeration to say that nearly 70 years after a Nazi regime was driven out of Greece, a German-led policy is resulting in home-grown neo-Nazis being elected to the Greek legislature, and to the rise of extremist parties throughout Europe. The EU politicians must start to think out of the economic box and realise what is happening.

I am struck aeolium by one of your earlier comments. You say that if Greece remains in the Eurozone no growth is foreseen "for years if not decades". This prompts me to go back to the American loan to Britain after the war. The US moved from a position of refusing any kind of loan to giving us a loan and what turned out to be nearly six decades to pay it back. My question in 2012 is why Germany, the wider EU and the US, which is heavily in the background of this crisis, are in such a hurry. Let us say that no growth in Greece is foreseen "for years if not decades". That might suggest they could in 20 or 30 years turn it round. It seems to me that this is an arrogant harsher age. Softening might also uncomfortably shift the focus of culpability away from the Greeks.

As for neo nazis, they come and they go. This is not to say that they won't necessarily come and never leave, abandoning elections, but it hasn't happened so far in our European lives. It has been more transitory. We have seen as much with the fluctuating fortunes of Orban in Hungary, the Le Pens in France and Wilders in the Netherlands. The Dutch Liberals got into bed with the latter for two years which shows that the "impossibility" of coalition in Greece is somewhat manufactured. Bear in mind that even now Greek fascists have just 8% support. More than this, there must be concern about the neo-fascist controlling of national economies by others, particularly as that now seems permanent. I think we label things too lazily so one lot of people are fascist and another are not. We also pretend that fascism is always absolute and somehow entirely removed from everything else.

Perhaps we need some more subtlety about it. It comes in different shades, sometimes it is in packages with other labels and frequently it arises as a reaction against a particularly sloppy form of liberalism. In fact, that happens even in the mainstream which doesn't regulate enough and then regulates too much as soon as there is mayhem. The principal distinction I can see between EU economic fascism towards the Greeks and the Greeks' own Golden Dawn is on the issue of immigration. While the discrimination that underpins much of opposition to immigration is deplorable, it might just be the lesser of two fascisms. Unpalatable as this may be to us all, the alternative of a loss of national democracy and widespread poverty cannot morally be any alternative at all.

[aeolium]

Bear in mind that even now Greek fascists have just 8% support.

True, Lat1, although in the Weimar 1928 election the Nazi party gained just 2.6% and were in power five years later. Wilders increased his party's share of the vote in the last Dutch election in 2010 from 5.9% to 15%. A feature of the most recent elections is the decline of centrist parties and the rise of extreme ones (most visible in the Greek election where more votes were cast for non-centrist parties). Le Pen and Melenchon also made significant gains in the French presidential election first round.

This article tackles some of the issues to do with resolving the Greek situation (but not just the Greek one) and also picks up the example of Argentina.

[Serial_Apologist]

I think, S_A, that Argentina had multiple creditors not only in the USA and a partial repayment was made in 2005 with the IMF designated as the main creditor, and another, final, debt settlement took place in 2010 for creditors who held out against that 2005 settlement. During those 9 years from default in 2001 Argentina had been frozen out of financial credit markets. Notably Venezuela seems to have helped out a lot with extensive purchases of Argentinian bonds:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_debt_restructuring

The sad thing to me about the German position is that I greatly admire the way Germany has created a very socially liberal and progressive society with excellent policies eg on the environment yet here its government is laying down a 'one-size-fits-all' policy which is having horrendous consequences. It is not too great an exaggeration to say that nearly 70 years after a Nazi regime was driven out of Greece, a German-led policy is resulting in home-grown neo-Nazis being elected to the Greek legislature, and to the rise of extremist parties throughout Europe. The EU politicians must start to think out of the economic box and realise what is happening.

Thanks for that info, aeolium. I agree totally with you on Germany's intransigence.

[Serial_Apologist]

I am struck aeolium by one of your earlier comments. You say that if Greece remains in the Eurozone no growth is foreseen "for years if not decades". This prompts me to go back to the American loan to Britain after the war. The US moved from a position of refusing any kind of loan to giving us a loan and what turned out to be nearly six decades to pay it back.

Yes but post WW2, notwithstanding internal pressures, the American government felt itself under some moral obligation to offer longterm assistance. Remember, too, that America wanted to help in European reconstruction, a) as a bulwark against "Soviet expansionism"; and b) to help create a trading zone America could do business with. Germany is acting as if she has nothing to lose, and nothing to gain.

[Lateralthinking1]

True, Lat1, although in the Weimar 1928 election the Nazi party gained just 2.6% and were in power five years later. Wilders increased his party's share of the vote in the last Dutch election in 2010 from 5.9% to 15%. A feature of the most recent elections is the decline of centrist parties and the rise of extreme ones (most visible in the Greek election where more votes were cast for non-centrist parties). Le Pen and Melenchon also made significant gains in the French presidential election first round.

This article tackles some of the issues to do with resolving the Greek situation (but not just the Greek one) and also picks up the example of Argentina.

No one knows what will happen but he sounds about right. I like his observation on the inaccuracies of politicians and economists. The greatest revolution of all would be for the overpaid idiots who got everyone into this mess to be swept out and never allowed to see the light of day. Those in the mainstream professional classes born between 1950 and 1970 are an absolute disgrace. This Generation Zed Minus is still crawling all over the spheres of influence and really needs to step aside or be pushed unceremoniously.

I think the Greeks are only wedded to the EU and the Euro because of all the propaganda over decades. This will easily fall away with information such as that on Argentina in the article. I still think a Syriza led coalition is possible as previously outlined and wouldn't fear it at all, if I were Greek or otherwise. Golden Dawn stand no chance of being a part of any coalition unless they wish to be the minor party beside the left. Even if they did, what remains of stable Europe should be able to weather that kind of thing.

We talk about confidence in the markets but the current intransigence in the EU doesn't look strong. It seems immature, panicky and hysterical behind a veneer of certainty. Put that down to there being more political egos than there were in the 1940s and the 1950s. Perhaps they would all have more balance having done national service. The mainstream parties in Greece could not possibly commit in the long term to this model if Greece withdrew from it. They will be back in time but with new policies and no old guard.

I sound very much against the EU. Funnily enough, I'm not but the sooner we go back to it being something like the early 1970s version the better. Very few countries; limited power; room for national flexibility. My main reason for originally supporting it was to prevent a WW3 happening in Europe. Currently it is doing its best to make that impossible. And Serial_Apologist, perhaps, perhaps, perhaps, but the US turned down Maynard Keynes so I'm not sure it was overly moral or bothered. Similar to now in some respects.

[Lateralthinking1]

......This mornings's news is that 3rd place PASOK (Socialists) has found some sort of agreement with 7th place Democratic Left and will attempt to lead a Government with the agreement of 1st place New Democracy (Conservatives).

What kind of democracy is this?

It is as if the Liberal Democrats had said no to Cameron in 2010, then said no to Brown, then formed an agreement with Plaid Cymru and gone back to Cameron and said "we'll lead with you on board".

The only reason why this ludicrous situation is seen as possible is that it is now believed that anti EU parties would sweep the board in a second election. If New Democracy do agree, they will not only be consenting to a complete reversal of democratic choice as already expressed but working completely against the known will of the electorate in a second election.

If the EU supports this, it is a disgrace. Good news for Clegg though. He can do the same in 2015.

[Lateralthinking1]

Doom laden piece from Vasiliki Pryce nee Courmouzis, ex Mrs Huhne, ex KPMG, ex Exxon, ex Director General, Economics, BIS, ex Joint Head of the Government Economic Service, and in 2010 made Master of the Worshipful Company of Management Consultants.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/may/13/greece-must-stay-eurozone?INTCMP=ILCNETTXT3487

"Vicky" is a senior managing director in FTI Consulting, a global business advisory firm. In 2006 it took over Financial Dynamics, a financial and corporate PR and lobbying firm with offices in Europe, the US, Asia, the Middle East and South Africa. A fellow senior managing director is Andrew Walton, previously at Morgan Stanley where he was Vice-President of corporate communications for global investment banking business. Former Foreign Office minister Lord Mark Malloch Brown is its Chairman for Global Affairs.

Malloch Brown, never elected, was made a peer by Gordon Brown before becoming a junior Foreign Office Minister. He resigned two years later citing personal and family reasons. In 2010 he became an adviser on geopolitical issues for Vitol, a Swiss oil company previously fined for paying kickbacks to Saddam Hussein. Allegedly close to Paul Wolfowitz and up to a dozen neo-con think tanks, he has advised American leaning politicians in Columbia, Peru and Bolivia including one who was so hated by his people for "his neoliberal zeal and subservience to Washington that he had......to flee the presidential palace by helicopter and make for Miami".

One observer notes that there is a number of these so-called centre-leftists at FTI and that their employees have recently been spotted in Greece providing advice. Either they saw what was coming and kept quiet or didn't and yet think they have something useful to offer. Many of them might well be chomping at the bit to advise Prime Minister Miliband, particularly should he have as his deputy Nick Clegg. You could almost argue that there is a privatised version of the Civil Service Economics Unit in the waiting to take us all off to the right of Rumsfeld. And it is in this light that Pryce's article about Greece should perhaps be read.

While Greek herself, Vasiliki is used to being a millionairess. How could she know the practicalities of the daily grind for those now living on the breadline? What she arguably doesn't seem to get is that many would welcome the collapse of the system, come what may. Meanwhile, her court case is scheduled for October along with that of her ex hubby. We will find out then if she really believes there's no point in breaking rules. Best that she gets in articles for The Observer now, in case things go pear shaped.

[teamsaint]

wow. Good knowledge Lat.

The banking insiders are everywhere.

I am sure people the world over are yearning for a world not run by banks, consultants who work for banks, or people who have had their snouts in the city trough ever since their rich parents finished paying for their MBA.

[Lateralthinking1]

wow. Good knowledge Lat.

The banking insiders are everywhere.

I am sure people the world over are yearning for a world not run by banks, consultants who work for banks, or people who have had their snouts in the city trough ever since their rich parents finished paying for their MBA.

Thanks. It was Google for some of the facts but the comments are underpinned by some, not entirely joyous, insider knowledge. I've been following what is going on. All lawful I trust but the public need to be aware of what is potentially influential. It would be good to think that the two Eds wouldn't willingly walk into neocon advice, wherever it emerged and however it was presented.

[gurnemanz]

Having started Western Civilisation, it is quite appropriate that they should also end it.

[ahinton]

Having started Western Civilisation, it is quite appropriate that they should also end it.

An interesting thought and one that may well prove to be rather more than merely interesting; as someone recently observed to me, it might be as well to cut the old cliché "beware Greeks bearing gifts" down to "beware Greeks borrowing gifts" or indeed even simply "beware Greeks".

[Lateralthinking1]

I tend to think that this is a fairly accurate reading of how we got here -

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/mar/19/greece-heading-for-hell-eu-crisis

And I think the EU overlooks the ultimate card in the hands of Greece. It can threaten in private to turn its army - the biggest in Europe - on Turkey. There would then also be alternatives for the EU to consider. It wouldn't choose that one. Problem solved.

[Serial_Apologist]

Having started Western Civilisation, it is quite appropriate that they should also end it.

A shame though that the rest of us never considered pursuing Ghandi's suggestion in the interim...

[MrGongGong]

A shame though that the rest of us never considered pursuing Ghandi's suggestion in the interim...