Congratulations France!

[scottycelt]

it already is rough !!(pity nobody told the sales director at my workplace). It will get worse.

As JimD suggests, I think the markets/banks will triumph, as ever.

Who knows, perhaps that Gallic spirit will win through.

A French President can't change global reality any more than a UK Prime Minister, or even a US President these days.

Merkel and Hollande will now be seen to cosy-up politically because it is in the interests of both of their countries (and themselves) that they do so. Just like Blair and Bush, Obama and Cameron. Personal political philosophies are set aside once in power.

I agree that the Greek election results are much more significant and worrying, and it is hard to see how a messy exit from the Euro will now be avoided, which would completely impoverish that poor country, and make the current situation look like relative prosperity. One can even foresee a return to the colonels and dictatorship which would mean automatic expulsion from the EU as well.

I fervently hope I'm wrong and being over-pessimistic ...

[ahinton]

I suppose that there may be some who take the view that, since I deprecate the way in which the thread topic is phrase, I should desist from contributing, but I will do nonetheless in as constructive a way as I can.

It is surely far too early either to deprecate or to crow over the so-called "victory" of M. Hollande and his party in France, given that (a) the margin isn't much different to that of the London mayoral election, (b) he has barely had so much as a day in office so far and, perhaps far more importantly, (c) whatever may have been in his and his party's election manifesto and what eventually happens are as likely to differ fundamentally as has been the case in UK irrespective of which party or two has gained what's still quaintly termed "power" following a General Election. There already appears to be the risk that what scotty calles "cosying up" between Hollande and Merkel may yet risk turning into the very opposite. I do not know what Simon appears to be crowing over, since the future looks very different to anything over which one could reasonably expect to feel relief, let alone pride. Perhaps, however, others including scotty ad Simon might care to elaborate on what brings them to the conclusions that they seem to be putting forward here.

[scottycelt]

I suppose that there may be some who take the view that, since I deprecate the way in which the thread topic is phrase, I should desist from contributing, but I will do nonetheless in as constructive a way as I can.

It is surely far too early either to deprecate or to crow over the so-called "victory" of M. Hollande and his party in France, given that (a) the margin isn't much different to that of the London mayoral election, (b) he has barely had so much as a day in office so far and, perhaps far more importantly, (c) whatever may have been in his and his party's election manifesto and what eventually happens are as likely to differ fundamentally as has been the case in UK irrespective of which party or two has gained what's still quaintly termed "power" following a General Election. There already appears to be the risk that what scotty calles "cosying up" between Hollande and Merkel may yet risk turning into the very opposite. I do not know what Simon appears to be crowing over, since the future looks very different to anything over which one could reasonably expect to feel relief, let alone pride. Perhaps, however, others including scotty ad Simon might care to elaborate on what brings them to the conclusions that they seem to be putting forward here.

Elaborate on exactly what, ahinton ...?

Cynical of politicians' pre-election promises I may be, but I simply stated that I don't believe that the election of Hollande rather than Sarkozy will make a great deal of difference to France or Europe in the current situation, and take the view that the Greek elections were rather more significant in the great scheme of things.

I have come to no definite conclusions, merely expressed a genuine fear of what, in my opinion, is the worst possible scenario for Greece, ie a disorderly exit from the Euro. Who is going to lend it any money then? What good is that going to be to its people? An army dictatorship in such a dire situation might well be a possible outcome, don't you think?

Of course, I also quite naturally expressed the fervent hope that all this will never happen, and my fears prove to be quite unfounded ...

[Simon]

exit from the Euro will now be avoided, which would completely impoverish that poor country,

You may have to explain this, sc, as most economists think otherwise. Over time, NOT being in the Euro will only benefit Greece.

Many said, before the Euro was rolled out, that trying to fit diverse economies such as Germany and Greece under one umbrella was doomed to failure. We knew that any regualtion would be sidetracked, ignored, foiled... We didn't trust the national politicians and we certainly didn't trust those in the EU or at the ECB to take any difficult decisions. We knew that, if problems came, they would do anything and sacrifice anything at the altar of their fantasy, federalist dream.

And we were right.

Unfortunately for the poor people of Greece, as you say.

[teamsaint]

Elaborate on exactly what, ahinton ...?

Cynical of politicians' pre-election promises I may be, but I simply stated that I don't believe that the election of Hollande rather than Sarkozy will make a great deal of difference to France or Europe in the current situation, and take the view that the Greek elections were rather more significant in the great scheme of things.

I have come to no definite conclusions, merely expressed a genuine fear of what, in my opinion, is the worst possible scenario for Greece, ie a disorderly exit from the Euro. Who is going to lend it any money then? What good is that going to be to its people? An army dictatorship in such a dire situation might well be a possible outcome, don't you think?

Of course, I also quite naturally expressed the fervent hope that all this will never happen, and my fears prove to be quite unfounded ...

Your opinion that a disorderly exit form the Euro would be the worst outcome for the Greeks is interesting.
The Euro, and the much vaunted financial disciplines of the Euro don't seem to have helped them much. (there are also some unusual tax regimes in Greece which look very friendly to the wealthy, but I am no expert).
it seems to me that the fear of leaving the Euro, or more to the point, the fear of the big Eurozone economies that Greece and others might leave, may be worse than the reality.

FWIW, it always seemed to me that the controls that the Euro put in place, on inflation etc,(and of course the lack of exchange rate flexibility) meant that unemployment, one big thing that the eurozone couldn't regulate for, was always going to be price for membership.

[ahinton]

Over time, NOT being in the Euro will only benefit Greece.

But will it really do that? And how? Its exit form the Eurozone, "orderly" or "disorderly", will make no differences to the level of Greek debt or to its economy at the time of such exit, nor will it give any kind of realistic green light for its economic improvement as far as I can see so, if you can see farther than this on that particular front, might you care to explain how you think that being forced out of the Eurozone could work out to Greece's ultimate advantage?

Many said, before the Euro was rolled out, that trying to fit diverse economies such as Germany and Greece under one umbrella was doomed to failure.

Yes, they did - and they were wrong - or, more properly, they were barely half right; it was not "doomed to failure" but "woefully premature". There would have been no guarantee of such failure, as you appear to believe, had the economies of all Eurozone countries and future Eurozone applicants been evened out far more than was the case in practice before any country could have been permitted to join such a mechanism.

sacrifice anything at the altar of their fantasy, federalist dream.

Not everyone in EU, including the powers that be and were, have or had the same ideas one this; indeed, the vast majority did not and still do not see the Eurozone mechanism as leading to any such European federalism, as that fact ot there still being 10 EU nations outside the Eurozone appears to demonstrate. A fully united federalist Europe - as in that once oft-cited but now rather worn-our cliché "The Untied States of Europe" - has been the dream of few and it is clearly now more than a pipe-dream even to them.

I suspect that you are not merely against the Eurozone as an entity but also against EU as an entity. One of your reasons for the former and perhaps also to a lesser extent the latter may well be the econoic inequalities of the nations of Europe. That said, however, many European nations remain for the time being outside EU altogether (a more realistic and credible European Union would, to my mind, need at the very least to include Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, Albania, Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus and Turkey and if Morocco were granted membership then it may well follow that Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Palestine (when it's properly founded), Israel and Lebanon eventually get to become members - and so on). I am not for one moment suggesting that a European union of some 60 or more states is likely to, or indeed should, become a reality much before the middle of the present century but, since your preference is presumably for the very opposite to happen - i.e. the break-up of the current EU - what prospects for its 27 current member states do you envisage? and how do you imagine that the demolition of such an organisation which, after all, grew out of the ashes of WWI could guarantee the avoidance of similar international military conflagration (which you surely would not advocate under any circumstances)?

If, on the other hand, you seek to advocate only the destruction of the single currency but not the EU itself, what do you suppose that the total cost of bringing into play 17 new national currencies to replace the Euro might be and from what sources might you assume that the countries obliged to do this will be able to borrow the requisite funds to achieve it?

[John Skelton]

And we were right.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZvkrPW3jiU&feature=relmfu

[scottycelt]

You may have to explain this, sc, as most economists think otherwise. Over time, NOT being in the Euro will only benefit Greece.

Many said, before the Euro was rolled out, that trying to fit diverse economies such as Germany and Greece under one umbrella was doomed to failure. We knew that any regualtion would be sidetracked, ignored, foiled... We didn't trust the national politicians and we certainly didn't trust those in the EU or at the ECB to take any difficult decisions. We knew that, if problems came, they would do anything and sacrifice anything at the altar of their fantasy, federalist dream.

And we were right.

Unfortunately for the poor people of Greece, as you say.

Well, I haven't heard a single economist say a disorderly exit from the Euro would be 'a good thing' for Greece.

UK Eurosceptics have rarely been right about anything to do with Europe since 1951, Simon ...

Mistakes were certainly made allowing Greece, in particular, joining the Euro, that now goes without saying. As I indicated before if the UK was (is) not fit to join, Greece certainly wasn't. Portugal and Spain probably not as well. In hindsight, Ireland might have been better staying out with the UK, but until the financial crisis such a suggestion would have been laughed at. All water under the bridge now, and teething troubles with such a huge enterprise were always a distinct possibility.

However, unlike you, Simon, I do not consider that the UK being unfit to join the Euro is a matter for national pride, quite the reverse. The Euro will not only survive the current crisis it will eventually get stronger and, yes, one day the UK will join out of necessity, just as we had to join the EU which the Eurosceptics also said would fail ... just look at it now with countries still queuing to join and not one government wanting its country to leave. Teamsaint, I would also like to point out that, according to all opinion polls, a healthy majority of Greeks don't want their country to leave the Euro ... however, voting for extreme parties and politicians won't aid that cause!

That's the situation in the real world, and one doesn't have to be a European federalist (which I happen to be) to acknowledge some of these simple facts.

[Lateralthinking1]

One of the good things about the result - Mr Hollande can teach Mr Cameron how to tax millionaires at 75% and actually get that money paid to Government rather than, as here, seeing less money coming in with any higher tax for various peculiar reasons.

[Simon]

the EU which the Eurosceptics also said would fail ... just look at it now with countries still queuing to join and not one government wanting its country to leave.

Scotty, the whole enterprise has been one big, grotesque failure. For most of the PEOPLE of Europe, anyway. Almost every policy has been mired in sleaze, fraud, incompetence and stupidity. The CAP and the CFP in particular.

That most politicians and some civil servants and lawyers have had their noses so far into the corrupt trough of OUR money is a given, which is naturally why the POLITICIANS and their hangers-on don't want out. And the ones wanting to come in are so doing specifically because they have been promised MONEY. It's a bribe.

THAT is the true situation, which people could perhaps see better if they took off their rose-tinted spectacles...

[teamsaint]

Scotty, the whole enterprise has been one big, grotesque failure. For most of the PEOPLE of Europe, anyway. Almost every policy has been mired in sleaze, fraud, incompetence and stupidity. The CAP and the CFP in particular.

That most politicians and some civil servants and lawyers have had their noses so far into the corrupt trough of OUR money is a given, which is naturally why the POLITICIANS and their hangers-on don't want out. And the ones wanting to come in are so doing specifically because they have been promised MONEY. It's a bribe.



THAT is the true situation, which people could perhaps see better if they took off their rose-tinted spectacles...

big money and banking is also at the heart of it.
The tail wagging the dog. Look at what the ECB actually does..........

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16282206

Europe. Run by banks , for banks.
I wish the EU worked well for its people, but I really cannot see that it does.

[Simon]

big money and banking is also at the heart of it.
The tail wagging the dog. Look at what the ECB actually does..........

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16282206

Europe. Run by banks , for banks.
I wish the EU worked well for its people, but I really cannot see that it does.

Indeed, TS. Good to be able to agree with you on this. Not solely for and by banks of course, but also for and by big business especially in chemicals, drugs and agribusiness. And of course by predatory sharks, i.e. lawyers...

[teamsaint]

Indeed, TS. Good to be able to agree with you on this. Not solely for and by banks of course, but also for and by big business especially in chemicals, drugs and agribusiness. And of course by predatory sharks, i.e. lawyers...

yes. not just big money.(the drugs thing has been especially interesting with the regulation of natural remedies......)

and I know, the ECB is independent of the EU.........legally.
Doesn't seem to make any difference to the way it acts , though.

[Simon]

Three men were marooned on a boat - an accountant, a lawyer and a vicar.

Eventually they saw land, but when they came to about 50 metres away from it the sea became becalmed and they could not reach the beckoning beach and shady palm trees. Swimming was out of the question, as the waters around them swarmed with large, triangular fins...

For days they waited, and eventually became desperate. They decided that one of them would have to take a rope and swim, pulling the boat as far as he could.

They drew lots. The lawyer lost. Tying the rope about him, he jumped in. Lo and behold, the sharks parted before him, and he slowly drew the boat ashore.

"A miracle! A miracle" said the priest.

"Not at all" said the accountant".

"It was just professional courtesy".

[ahinton]

Scotty, the whole enterprise has been one big, grotesque failure. For most of the PEOPLE of Europe, anyway. Almost every policy has been mired in sleaze, fraud, incompetence and stupidity. The CAP and the CFP in particular.

That most politicians and some civil servants and lawyers have had their noses so far into the corrupt trough of OUR money is a given, which is naturally why the POLITICIANS and their hangers-on don't want out. And the ones wanting to come in are so doing specifically because they have been promised MONEY. It's a bribe.

And what makes you imply (if indeed you do so, which I assume you to do) that those things to which you point your accusing finger would really have been any different or any better had this NOT happened? People in poisitons of power will surely almost always do what interests them and regardless of anyone else's interests - you really don't have to have an EU-style framework in order to enable this!