French Elections 2012

[aeolium]

The point I was trying to make was my surprise (I suppose) that in a civilized country like France some 20% have chosen to vote FN.

Yet I don't think it should be such a surprise, as FN has been quite strong in France for some time now. And recent years, especially since the financial crash and the implementation of austerity measures across Europe, have seen a significant increase in support for far-right parties throughout Europe:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/nov/06/far-right-rise-europe-report

[ferneyhoughgeliebte]

The point I was trying to make was my surprise (I suppose) that in a civilized country like France some 20% have chosen to vote FN.

That was "the point" I understood you to be making, vinty, and to which I responded.

[Vile Consort]

Wow! Snazzy ballot boxes, clear perspex and a lever to operate the slot :swoon:

Here in Brent we have black/green metal boxes with an slot inadequately wide so that you often have to fold your ballot paper up to get it through

Perhaps some extra design in our ballot boxes would result in UK turnout racing up to match that of the French - after all we live in a design-literate culture, don't we

No, no, no! That "back to the 1920's" feeling is part of the attraction of voting in person.

When you hold the stub of pencil on its piece of string wondering whether Brown or Cameron would make the less bad prime minister, you can just imagine your great grandfather holding it when it was newly-made, trying to decide between Mr Lloyd George and Mr Bonar Law.

[amateur51]

No, no, no! That "back to the 1920's" feeling is part of the attraction of voting in person.

When you hold the stub of pencil on its piece of string wondering whether Brown or Cameron would make the less bad prime minister, you can just imagine your great grandfather holding it when it was newly-made, trying to decide between Mr Lloyd George and Mr Bonar Law.

That's fine for thee & me, VC but I was talking about today's younger voters - remember the still-unresolved (as far as I know) scandal/shermozzle at the last General Election when people drifted up to the Polling Stations in rather leisurely fashion near the closing time & then got the doors closed in their faces when the clock struck 22:00 hrs

I'm dead against electronic voting and I agree with you about the cross against the box but we need to think of ways of getting the punters interested in voting & those rather glam French boxes took my fancy

[Vile Consort]

The main problem with electronic voting, it seems to me, is that the computer tells you what the result is, and nobody can say whether it is right or not.

[Lateralthinking1]

... but, cautiously, we recall that in1995 Jospin won the first round - to be defeated by Chirac in the second round. Don't compter les poulets de Bresse until the 6 May round...

True but since March the polls have indicated about a 55-45% split in Hollande's favour on second round intentions. If the FN figure is correct, it isn't a huge surprise. In 2002, leftish voters had the horrible choice to make between Chirac and Papa Le Pen. No choice really. The first round then gave them 20% and 17% respectively with just 16% for the Socialist candidate. At least Hollande will be on the second round ballot paper. Incidentally, in that year, other candidates secured an astonishing 37%.

By contrast in 2007, Sarkozy and Royal won 31% and 26% in the first round, the centrist Bayrou was third with 19% and FN fourth with 10%. Other candidates received 14%. Now, in 2012, some of Sarkozy's votes this time round have gone to FN. Good news for Marine. The Socialists have possibly built slightly on their advance in 2007 from 2002 oblivion. Even better news for Francois. It's France. That means volatile naturally.

In answer to the question about the percentage of FN voters, there is a history in France of dissent. Almost any form is deemed acceptable. It no doubt combines in the vote with some conformist views based on a Gaullist nationalism and a number who just don't like Sarkozy's background, personality and economic mismanagement. Yes, immigration is an issue, particularly in the suburbs.

I would though ask this question. If someone is to the right politically, isn't racist and is appalled both by the recent global banking practices and the EU, what does he or she do? Here we have UKIP. What staggers me the most is how people of all political colours vote in such large numbers for the system that has been responsible for devastating economic chaos.

[BBMmk2]

I heard that 1 ion 5 of the elecorate voted for the Nationmal Front yesterday?

[Mr Pee]

One thing the vote also demonstrates beyond any dispute is that extreme left-wing dreamland politicians like Jean Luc Melenchon in no way represent the true voice of 'the people' ...

Very true. But since when have politicians been bothered about that? Just condemn all those who voted for the FN as Nazis, and carry on ignoring the problems that led them to vote that way in the first place. That seems to be the standard response. Which solves nothing.

[ahinton]

Very true. But since when have politicians been bothered about that? Just condemn all those who voted for the FN as Nazis, and carry on ignoring the problems that led them to vote that way in the first place. That seems to be the standard response. Which solves nothing.

"Condemning" them may indeed "solve nothing", but it's also important to recognise - as I'm by no means sure that you do - the motivations for those who did vote FN and it would not be unreasonable to assume that the vastly increased proportion of the vote that went in that direction yesterday was more reflective of a desire to register general discontentment at the prospects for the country under either the present incumbent or M. Hollande - i.e. "protest votes" - than to a genuine opinion that the best prospects for the country would be under an FN government.

[amateur51]

One thing the vote also demonstrates beyond any dispute is that extreme left-wing dreamland politicians like Jean Luc Melenchon in no way represent the true voice of 'the people' ...

To which I'd merely add "at the moment"

[amateur51]

"Condemning" them may indeed "solve nothing", but it's also important to recognise - as I'm by no means sure that you do - the motivations for those who did vote FN and it would not be unreasonable to assume that the vastly increased proportion of the vote that went in that direction yesterday was more reflective of a desire to register general discontentment at the prospects for the country under either the present incumbent or M. Hollande - i.e. "protest votes" - than to a genuine opinion that the best prospects for the country would be under an FN government.

An "A pox on all your houses" response which seems entirely reasonable to me within a two round electoral system - a shot across the bows.

[ahinton]

"The true voice of the people"? Does anyone in professional politics ever really represent such a thing? - and is it in any case possible to do it even with the best will in the world, given that, whilst there IS such a thing as society, the people within it do not all think in the same way or have all the same ideas and aspirations?

[Lateralthinking1]

An "A pox on all your houses" response which seems entirely reasonable to me within a two round electoral system - a shot across the bows.

Yes indeed but it is very disappointing that the two main candidates - the "Conservative" and the "Labour" one - achieved a much higher total percentage than in 2002 prior to the banking crisis. Extraordinary really. The Greens also had a bad night.

That said, an election in which 45% of voters did not vote for one of the main two candidates is still noteworthy. This in itself was achieved with a centrist candidate - the "Liberal" - getting less than 10%.

It was a pity that Melenchon's percentage was lower than anticipated. However, there was a time - early Mitterand - when the Socialists believed that they had consigned the Communist etc Left to history. They have bounced back. Certainly we know that 17% were prepared in mid-April to vote for them. At that time the FN were on about 16%.

I think the 2002 election explains partially why the Melenchon vote tailed off. Bear in mind that when Chirac and Jean-Marie Le Pen were the candidates to reach the run-off, they each received less than 20% in Round One. Some Melenchon voters might have feared that there would be a surge for the FN this time around and voted for Hollande to be sure that he was in the last two. None of the polls suggested that he wouldn't be but then Le Pen coming second in 2002 wasn't indicated either.

By contrast, I doubt whether many FN voters were overly bothered whether Sarkozy was in the frame or not. It would have been assumed as it is unprecedented for a President not to be. Some might also have sensed that the Left was split and seen it as a chance to repeat 2002.

[amateur51]

Yes indeed but it is very disappointing that the two main candidates - the "Conservative" and the "Labour" one - achieved a much higher total percentage than in 2002 prior to the banking crisis. Extraordinary really. The Greens also had a bad night.

That said, an election in which 45% of voters did not vote for one of the main two candidates is still noteworthy. This in itself was achieved with a centrist candidate - the "Liberal" - getting less than 10%.

It was a pity that Melenchon's percentage was lower than anticipated. However, there was a time - early Mitterand - when the Socialists believed that they had consigned the Communist etc Left to history. They have bounced back. Certainly we know that 17% were prepared in mid-April to vote for them. At that time the FN were on about 16%.

I think the 2002 election explains partially why the Melenchon vote tailed off. Bear in mind that when Chirac and Jean-Marie Le Pen were the candidates to reach the run-off, they each received less than 20% in Round One. Some Melenchon voters might have feared that there would be a surge for the FN this time around and voted for Hollande to be sure that he was in the last two. None of the polls suggested that he wouldn't be but then Le Pen coming second in 2002 wasn't indicated either.

By contrast, I doubt whether many FN voters were overly bothered whether Sarkozy was in the frame or not. It would have been assumed as it is unprecedented for a President not to be. Some might also have sensed that the Left was split and seen it as a chance to repeat 2002.

An intriguing analysis, Lat - many thanks

[Lateralthinking1]

Policy - The extraordinary range of opinions expressed, some crackers, really shows how narrow the debate is in Britain. That is not to say that people are silenced here but the French are extremely open-minded about what to take seriously.

Hollande is advocating a reduction in the retirement age from 62 to 60. That he thinks that he can do it, and has the will, places our politicians in a very bad light. He would raise taxes for big corporations, banks and the wealthy, create subsidised jobs in areas of high unemployment for the young, promote more industry in France by creating a public investment bank, grant marriage and adoption rights to same-sex couples and pull French troops out of Afghanistan this year. He is not Ed Miliband.

Melenchon - what a pity he is 60 rather than 30 - called for a "citizens' revolution", the reduction of Presidential power, nationalization of the banks, democratization through new rights for employees allowing them to develop cooperatives, the nationalization of large corporations, environmental planning, an exit from NATO and an end to the war in Afghanistan. Describing himself as "the sound and the fury", Hollande as "a pedal boat captain" and the money of the rich as "stinking", he also said:

"Get rid of the lot of them"

"We're not the shovel brigade of the Socialist Party but the locomotive of the entire left"

"When there is no more liberty, civil insurrection becomes a sacred duty of the Republic"

"Once again, you will have to be the crater from which the new flame of revolution erupts, lighting the fire of contagion that will become the common cause of the peoples of Europe"

I don't share the incomprehension of some about the popularity of the FN. I don't like the tone of Le Pen but there is an issue everywhere about the sustainability of immigration. We just ignore it here and choose to see housing shortages, water bans and cramped transport as unrelated. It makes no sense to permit those with a racist outlook to carry forward the discussion while offering little in its place. I note that Le Pen favours a moratorium on legal immigration and would forcibly repatriate illegal immigrants. That looks to me like a sledgehammer, although I am not aware that she favours incentives to legal immigrants to leave. Still, condemnation is hardly the answer. I feel there needs to be more reality all round, along with subtlety, to the debate.