The US Election

[Boilk]

His latest campaign promise is that "in his second term" he will have an American colony on the moon. An astro-newt, as Channel 4 News captioned it !

And he will fire them (and the necessary building materials) into space using as-yet-undisclosed Newt-onian principles.

Seriously though, whoever gets in really makes very little difference in the bigger scheme. Recent administrations have been passing ever more legislation to erode personal freedoms in preparation for martial law - because they know the game is almost up. And the American empire is - apparently - on the verge of collapse. If so, there will surely be a domino effect?

[Mahlerei]

The Florida debate has exposed these candidates for what they are - shallow, grasping and clueless. Molto depressing.

[Lateralthinking1]

Is the space race over?

The September 2011 straw poll in Florida -

1. Herman Cain, 37.1%
2. Rick Perry, 15.4%
3. Mitt Romney, 14.0%
4. Rick Santorum, 10.9%
5. Ron Paul, 10.4%
6. Newt Gingrich, 8.4%
7. Jon Huntsman, 2.3%
8. Michele Bachmann, 1.5%

Tonight after 98% of precincts counted -

1. Mitt Romney, 46%
2. Newt Gingrich, 32%
3. Rick Santorum, 13%
4. Ron Paul, 7%

Observations on Florida and the future -

- Ed Rollins, Campaign Director for Reagan-Bush '84 - "This was the nastiest campaign I've ever seen"
- Why Romney? - Huge money, got votes in early, won both of the debates, Newt's space pitch backfired
- Significance - Big : Gingrich character harmed, women strongly for Romney, Florida has 50 delegates
- Biggest plus for Romney - Convincing win in a state where 66% of Republicans identify with the Tea Party
- The minus - His negative, personalised, campaigning : Neutral voters are flooding to Obama because of it
- Gingrich says - 46 states to go : One conservative, him, versus a moderate, people power versus money
- Santorum - Already in Nevada for the next one. Paul - Expected to campaign for his message indefinitely
- The End? - No. Long way from Super Tuesday, Obama is 8% ahead of Romney in Florida presidential poll

[scottycelt]

His latest campaign promise is that "in his second term" he will have an American colony on the moon. An astro-newt, as Channel 4 News captioned it !

Some of us are old enough to remember (and you don't have to be that old) when it was fashionable for American politicians to sneer at former colonial powers, especially the UK. How times change!

I honestly thought it must be some sort of 'joke' when I heard this latest election 'pledge' from Noot ... maybe an increasingly-desperate Ed should promise to re-colonise Rockall for the British Empire?

[Lateralthinking1]

One lesson to be learnt from the melee. If Labour is to have a civil war over leadership, it had better not wait until the election. The verdict from Florida was that it was a good night for Romney and a great night for Obama.

Two things specifically American. First, often in the past, we have effectively had a winner by now. However, many states are for the first time operating a proportionate system rather than "winner takes all". Each candidate knows that he will amass further delegates whatever his position after any future state vote. Each therefore carries on. Expect the Presidential election ultimately to be between President Obama and Mr Cream Crackered. This Republican race is harder work than running a country.

Secondly, who is to be the Republican Vice Presidential candidate? An obvious question and generally it is answered by "wait and see". Sure, in 1976, Reagan announced that his would be Schweiker. He hoped to win over floating voters. This was a rarity and it didn't work. 2012 could be different. With the vote divided equally between Romney on the one hand and Gingrich plus Santorum on the other, Mitt might need an early announcement to push this on a bit. Mike Huckabee is very popular but it is better to be in a swing state. Like, erm, Florida. Whatever this article says, this guy might be in the news soon as Romney's best new pal.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/26/us-usa-campaign-florida-rubio-idUSTRE80P09620120126

[Lateralthinking1]

........Mitt Romney is popular with women voters.

Hence the BIG rumour currently in Washington that the Democrats' Joe Biden may be ditched in 2012 for this Vice Presidential candidate who has an interest in foreign affairs -

[Simon]

Good to see some fair and rational comment.

What appalls many of us this side of the Atlantic is the generally poor quality of what's on offer. US politics has always been corrupt in one sense, but nonetheless there has been an understanding that at the very top the man was truly there for the people. Up to Bush Sr. I think that was true. Some of us haven't been so sure of late.

But back to the present: the bets are that Obama gets in again. I think that will be a good thing. But if we have to have a Republican, anybody but Newt has to be the maxim: that would be a disaster.

As regards a collapse, it will probably come sooner rather than later, but won't necessarily have too harmful an effect on the UK. That's partly because, not being part of the ECB/Euro system, we still have the ability to micro-manage our economy as best suits us, rather than having to fit in with the "single size" fits all idea, which, as most of us with brains foretold years ago, would cause the problems that we are currently seeing across the channel.

[Lateralthinking1]

Thank you for these comments, some of which I wouldn't have necessarily predicted. The idea of a President being "for the people" is an interesting one but difficult to assess scientifically. To be neutral about it, I think that Reagan and Carter in their individual ways would be fairly easily placed in that category. The shifty Johnson too domestically but not in terms of Vietnam. Nixon, no, no, no and no again. Ford blighted his own record by effectively excusing him. As for JFK, I feel less sure the more I hear of him.

As an aside, there was an interesting programme on Radio 4 recently about the EU and monetary policy. By all accounts Mrs Thatcher was a little hysterical about German reunification. It took Hurd some considerable time to convince her that it was the proverbial good thing. She, though, was not alone and much of the impetus for fast tracking the Euro was to rein in the new big beast as many Europeans perceived it. They didn't want a dominant Deutschmark and yet that currency was fundamental to the Germans who saw it as symbolic of having ditched Adolf. It had of course also been a story of economic success.

Ultimately, Germany was won over to the Euro only once others had agreed to its insistence that there be a condition of economic union. Ironically then it got rid of the currency that it wanted. At the same time, the very reason why others wanted it to do so - to prevent German domination - led to a situation where they got themselves into such an economic pickle that Germany had to take control anyway. We also heard that just ahead of the 1997 election Brown and Balls had danced over to Brussels on the quiet informally to discuss getting rid of the pound as quickly as possible. Somehow, this came as no surprise to me.

[Simon]

"there was an interesting programme on Radio 4 recently about the EU and monetary policy. "

There was indeed Lat. An interesting commentary - though of course one takes some of the politicians' memories with a little salt! I heard it in the car. As I understood, there was to be a second, or maybe several, on the same subject, though I may have half heard. Did you catch it more accurately, please?

[Lateralthinking1]

Simon - It took me a while to locate the programme. I have though found it. It is called "Europe's Choice" and the one that was broadcast this week appears to have been the first of three -

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01b8xvy

Going back to the US Election, Romney has a 15-20% lead over Gingrich in Nevada. However, the opinion polls are a bit iffy. There are very few of them and many who will have commented won't turn out. Active involvement in the caucuses is low. I don't question the figures hugely. It is a state with a big Mormon presence and that vote is exceedingly loyal. But the low percentages for Santorum and Paul in the polls don't fully reveal the barnstorming nature of the former's campaign in the state or the strength the latter has had there in the past. Whatever the outcome, it should be a small stepping stone ahead of Super Tuesday.

[Lateralthinking1]

......Well, if ever there was a lesson in how not to count votes, it comes from Nevada. At this rate we will know who is President before this caucus has been concluded. In fact, the management of the entire caucus was poor:

"Nevada Republican Party officials may be rethinking how they conduct caucuses after Saturday night's main event provided much lower-than-expected turnout and a bitter confrontation ensued at a special evening caucus after people were turned away for not proving they were delayed from earlier voting because of the Jewish Sabbath...Chuck Muth, a Gingrich supporter...blasted his state's GOP leadership for making the caucuses "a complete, total, national laughingstock.....This is beyond humiliating. GOP leaders here ought to be forced to wear brown bags over their heads from now until the convention.""

Still, 89% of precincts have now declared and there is no doubt that Romney has trounced the opposition:

Romney - 50%
Gingrich - 21%
Paul - 19%
Santorum - 10%

Mitt did very well in Nevada in 2008. In some respects, this in 2012 is not a better performance. Meanwhile, the rather impressive vote for Ron Paul this time has raised eyebrows. The Maine vote is now underway but it's a protracted affair and they will not declare until next weekend. Minnesota and Colorado hold contests on Tuesday, the same day as a non-binding primary in Missouri.

[amateur51]

Good to see some fair and rational comment.

What appalls many of us this side of the Atlantic is the generally poor quality of what's on offer. US politics has always been corrupt in one sense, but nonetheless there has been an understanding that at the very top the man was truly there for the people. Up to Bush Sr. I think that was true. Some of us haven't been so sure of late.

But back to the present: the bets are that Obama gets in again. I think that will be a good thing. But if we have to have a Republican, anybody but Newt has to be the maxim: that would be a disaster.

As regards a collapse, it will probably come sooner rather than later, but won't necessarily have too harmful an effect on the UK. That's partly because, not being part of the ECB/Euro system, we still have the ability to micro-manage our economy as best suits us, rather than having to fit in with the "single size" fits all idea, which, as most of us with brains foretold years ago, would cause the problems that we are currently seeing across the channel.

Who is this 'us' you keep mentioning, Simon?

You and the bloke in the pub who brings in the Daily Mail for you to read?

Oh and Mr & Mrs Khan of course

[Mahlerei]

Yes, a surprising boost for Ron Pau, who beat that ghastly, sanctimonious Santorum. As for Obama, if GDP continues to rise and unemployment continues to fall, he might just make it to a second term. Iran is the wild card, though, especially if Israel does decide to strike.

[Simon]

Simon - It took me a while to locate the programme. I have though found it. It is called "Europe's Choice" and the one that was broadcast this week appears to have been the first of three -

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01b8xvy

I'm very grateful, old chap. Many thanks.

[Lateralthinking1]

....Astonishingly, Santorum wins a hat trick of states -

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-16938713

Rick said - "Tonight was a victory for the voices of our Party - conservatives and Tea Party people"

On Twitter, Rupert Murdoch said of Rick - "the only candidate with genuine big vision for country".



Percentages

Minnesota - Santorum 45, Paul 27, Romney 17, Gingrich 11
Colorado - Santorum 40, Romney 35, Gingrich 13, Paul 12

Missouri - Santorum 55, Romney 25, Paul 12, Others 3, Gingrich 0
(Making 95 - weird "math" and it's official!!)

........But Newt had hardly campaigned in the first two and wasn't even on the ballot in the third.

Assessment - The night has clearly rocked Romney who was polling well in Colorado and had won there last time round. Gingrich wants to hold ground until Super Tuesday when he hopes to do well in several states on the same day. However, there is more than a hint that Santorum could now be seen as Romney's main opponent from the right. It has been obvious from day one that significant sections of the Republican vote could only cope with a very right wing candidate. The Tea Party had been forlorn until this point. Now with these results they are jubilant. Santorum is already speaking about ignoring his Republican opponents and taking the fight all the way to Obama. Meanwhile Ron Paul continues on doing well here and badly there, happyish in that role.

The Bigger Picture - Overall, Romney has 107 delegates, Santorum has 45, Gingrich has 32 and Ron Paul has 9. It will take 1,144 delegates to win the GOP nomination.

Coming Next - Maine, Arizona, Michigan