The US Election

[Lateralthinking1]

Scares the **** out of me to think that Romney might win. Janet Daley thinks he will. I just hope she's wrong.

Dave2002 and amateur51, Janet's lived in Britain longer than most people here have been alive so she should know.

In case anyone has missed the blanket coverage everywhere, Americans have been voting today. Actually, many had already voted. The result in Florida was decided before the polling stations opened. It is just that no one knows what it is yet.

Recommended viewing - the excellent C-Span - http://www.c-span.org/. The mere mentioning of Fox News is likely to send many temperatures rising but for a more user friendly service (presenters- people who look like film stars, guests - wizened hacks), it is there if anyone wants it - http://www.foxnews.com/. What I saw of it earlier this year wasn't as biased as some might imagine.

As predicted, the polls are showing a very tight race but still with Obama having the edge (50% to 47% although these figures are likely to change through the night) - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-20216038.

I am able to bring you the news that if it is a draw in terms of electoral college votes, the winner will be chosen by the House of Representatives. That winner will be Mitt Romney. Now to return to that very well-written detective novel I have been reading.

[Tony Halstead]

re message #224

Scares the **** out of me to think that Romney might win

Dave, is that because - perhaps - you have an aversion to Mormons?
Or ( more probably) an aversion to Romney's policies, politics and overall agenda?

[Dave2002]

Agenda, mostly! I've not met many Mormons, and those I've met have been, for the most part, reasonable. I have an aversion to religion in general - of whatever flavour.

I'm scared that someone might win who says that the first thing he'll do, if elected, is rip up several of the major good developments of the last few years. Maybe he wouldn't, but who knows?

[Flosshilde]

I'm scared that someone might win who says that the first thing he'll do, if elected, is rip up several of the major good developments of the last few years. Maybe he wouldn't, but who knows?

That'll be Mitt Romney, then.

[Budapest]

I have no time whatsoever for organised religion (and I have to stress, organised religion). The American Republican party has now become some kind of quasi religious cult; ie, these people are completely bonkers, on any level. They worship Ronald Reagan, but Ronald Reagan would be turning in his grave if he could see what the Republican Party has become.

American Republican voters don't seem to realise the madness/extremism that's going on with the Tea Party, et al. In the UK, rags like the Daily Mail continue to endorse it with no understanding whatsoever, because they think it's 'Conservative' (duh). Even the Daily Telegraph has not endorsed Mitt Romney.

God forbid, but a swivel-eyed loon might be President tomorrow. During his four years, Obama signed-into law dictorial powers for the US President. These unprecedented powers will be passed on to the next President (it's now written in law).

Whoever wins the charade that is the Presidential election (it's a charade because a large part of it is funded by Wall Street), people should be aware that it is in no way 'democracy'.

[Lateralthinking1]

I have no time whatsoever for organised religion (and I have to stress, organised religion). The American Republican party has now become some kind of quasi religious cult; ie, these people are completely bonkers, on any level. They worship Ronald Reagan, but Ronald Reagan would be turning in his grave if he could see what the Republican Party has become.

American Republican voters don't seem to realise the madness/extremism that's going on with the Tea Party, et al. In the UK, rags like the Daily Mail continue to endorse it with no understanding whatsoever, because they think it's 'Conservative' (duh). Even the Daily Telegraph has not endorsed Mitt Romney.

God forbid, but a swivel-eyed loon might be President tomorrow. During his four years, Obama signed-into law dictorial powers for the US President. These unprecedented powers will be passed on to the next President (it's now written in law).

Whoever wins the charade that is the Presidential election (it's a charade because a large part of it is funded by Wall Street), people should be aware that it is in no way 'democracy'.

Perhaps, Budapest, but Latin Americans are turning out in larger numbers than ever before. I guess it all depends on the starting point of any comparison. This exercise, democracy or not, appears likely to be very close. Possibly the closest contest of all time.

I have seen figures of Romney 53% and Obama 46% which made me leap out of my seat. I don't know what they are and they are probably misleading. What is clear is that the exit polls are showing Virginia as a virtual tie and North Carolina as too close to call.

These are two of five states - Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina - which Demetrius advised could not all go to Romney with the likelihood of an Obama win. Obama needs at least one of them unless the Florida result is a surprise. He picked Nevada as the most possible. I agreed and we both felt that North Carolina was possibly the least likely of the five.

So if North Carolina is currently too close to call, it might appear that the Obama vote has held up well there, even if Romney wins that state. That could bode well for Obama more broadly but, as I say, it's close. Blimey......it is close!

[Demetrius]

And Virginia seems to be tipping the other way .... I don't think this will be resolved early

[Lateralthinking1]

And Virginia seems to be tipping the other way .... I don't think this will be resolved early

Yes, at 2.45 British time, the EC votes are: Obama - 153 - Romney - 153.

As you know, Ohio was always going to be significant too. A large number of EC votes there. Yesterday it was thought to be just about for Obama. Tonight it is apparently still too close to call. V-P candidate Paul Ryan's Wisconsin, though, has gone to Obama.

I am actually going through the night combining occasional viewing of the coverage with a good read. The book is winning easily but old habits die hard. I have been following these things for more decades than I care to admit and this is an incredible one.

(Oh, and enjoy your cups of coffee, Demetrius. Extraordinary to think that California, Alaska and Hawaii are still voting!!!).

[Demetrius]

but Obama seems to just grab Florida, which just about ends all speculation - Obama would at least get 10 Votes more than he needs even if he looses every other tight state

seems like it will be near impossible in the Future for Republicans to win if they don't get a better share of Latino votes in states like Florida, Nevada, Colorado, New mexico etc.

(and yes, Caffein helps a lot ... )

[Lateralthinking1]

but Obama seems to just grab Florida, which just about ends all speculation - Obama would at least get 10 Votes more than he needs even if he looses every other tight state

seems like it will be near impossible in the Future for Republicans to win if they don't get a better share of Latino votes in states like Florida, Nevada, Colorado, New mexico etc.

(and yes, Caffein helps a lot ... )

Nearly 4.15 am. You may well be right about Florida but I am still seeing it being referred to as "undecided". Current EC votes - Obama 244 and Romney 203 with 270 being the threshold. I cautiously agree, though, that it is looking good for the President.

One big story emerging tonight is just how much the US population has changed in a few years. Especially now that Latinos are voting, this does bode well for the Democrats in the future. At the same time, Romney has not appealed to that section of the population at all by using "words" like "self-deport". It could have been his undoing. Interestingly, McCain's vote from Latinos was more substantial in 2008 but then he did not have to look "immigration tough" against Rick Perry etc in the Primaries.

This is all a far cry from the image of the US during the campaign when it often seemed that it was about to be taken over by the Tea Party. It is even quite some way from how it appeared in the 1980s when Reagan represented a significant shift in attitudes on the right. But as always with the US, it is a mixed picture. It looks as though the Republicans will make several gains in the US Congress tonight. In certain places, the religious right appears to have abstained too. That may also have affected any outcome.

Keep with it - I reckon we could still have a result in time for a late breakfast. Very best regards - Lat.

[Lateralthinking1]

I wrote too soon. Breaking news - Fox has now - very suddenly - projected 275 EC votes for one of the candidates. Obama has won Iowa and Oregon and is also the projected winner in Ohio. It shouldn't be long before we hear speeches from the candidates.



The President for 2013-2016

[Pabmusic]

The BBC website has Obama as the victor. Phew!

[Lateralthinking1]

The BBC website has Obama as the victor. Phew!

I think I can permit myself to get off the fence for a few moments and say that I am delighted. Stevie Wonder's "Boogie on Reggae Woman" and the Whispers' "And The Beat Goes On" is currently entertaining the crowds at the Democrats HQ. Good on them.

Whatever the limited delivery in the past four years, and the inevitable ongoing role of big business, this really cements the step change achieved in 2008 in terms of race and power in the US. It wouldn't have seemed possible in the 1980s, let alone the 1960s.

While the country is socially divided, and economically fragile, it is from a historical perspective a little more comfortable socially with itself. Almost irrespective of policy issues, that is pretty vital if some of the immense problems are ever to be overcome.

[Demetrius]

I think the divide between the right and the moderate wing of the Republican Party is growing; overcoming this divide while staying electable nationwide seems to get more and more difficult. Its remarkable that Obama grabs an electoral Victory that resembles his landslide 4 years ago (loosing only Indiana and North Carolina, as it seems) even though his image suffered the economy went downhill. The Republicans couldn't take on a weakend President. I'm courious how the Republicans will restructure over the next few years, as demographics will continue to push key states out of the range of a right conservative candidate

btw, I love the 4th option for the Nevada senate race: after the Democratic, Republican and Independent Candidates: none of these got some votes, too


edit: these not those, getting a tad late

[Lateralthinking1]

I think the divide between the right and the moderate wing of the Republican Party is growing; overcoming this divide while staying electable nationwide seems to get more and more difficult. Its remarkable that Obama grabs an electoral Victory that resembles his landslide 4 years ago (loosing only Indiana and North Carolina, as it seems) even though his image suffered the economy went downhill. The Republicans couldn't take on a weakend President. I'm courious how the Republicans will restructure over the next few years, as demographics will continue to push key states out of the range of a right conservative candidate

btw, I love the 4th option for the Nevada senate race: after the Democratic, Republican and Independent Candidates: none of these got some votes, too


edit: these not those, getting a tad late

Yes indeed. The difference in EC votes will be more marked than anticipated. The vote is about 50/50.

I would find it difficult to say where Romney is on the Republican scale. He has shifted a lot. It therefore isn't easy to see how the Republicans can regroup. However, a combination of a candidate with a convincing personality and more targeting of Latin voters would probably do it, particularly if the economy, god forbid, was dire in four years time.

Where Romney isn't shifting is towards a concession speech. He is leaving it extremely late. I am going to sign out here but I have enjoyed our discussion. Many thanks to you, to Pabmusic and also to anyone else who has dropped by.