Originally posted by Lateralthinking1
View Post
For amateur51, as promised and with thanks, and everyone else who has an interest:
"Osama bin Laden is dead and General Motors is alive". Back on 6 September, I was noting that Joe Biden - of all people - had finally found a narrative for the Obama campaign. As for the rest of that get-together of the donkeys, it all seemed a trifle lacklustre. Barnstorming Bill was all very well but unlikely to appeal to the undecided. Well, the American public disagreed. While in August, the opinion polls were showing the two main candidates alternating for first position, Romney was second in all but one throughout September. Many polls were showing an Obama lead of 4-10%, one indicated that he had a 15% lead, and the one that he didn't win was a tie. Even so, supporters of the President were advised to exercise caution. The number of polls showing only a 1-3% lead wasn't insignificant. Then, in Denver, on 3 October, there was the first of the televised debates. Romney appeared to be in command while Obama was viewed as surprisingly hesitant. Actually, it was worse. The figures on who "won" the debate were abysmal for Obama. During the first week in October, Romney was ahead in the opinion polls with a lead of 1-4%. One debate had been sufficient to undo all of the positive impact of the Democratic convention and the elephants were pretty jubilant.
In the Vice Presidential debate on 11 October, Joe Biden took on the Republicans' young hopeful Paul Ryan. Biden, who is renowned for unfortunate gaffes, was perhaps a surprising choice last time round as Obama's running mate. I doubt that it was a certainty that he would be running to be Vice President again but it was he who was chosen. His performance on the night, full of interruptions and finger wagging, was described by critics as "weirdly aggressive". The worry was that this would have alienated women and swing voters. However, the opinion polls suggested that this year's biggest winner, uncertainty, was now again in the front seat. Did Romney have a 4% lead or was Obama ahead by seven percentage points? By 16 October, no one had the faintest idea, including the two main candidates as they went into the second debate in New York. Watched by tens of millions of Americans, the two squared off, only a few feet apart, talking over one another, jabbing fingers at one another and accusing each other of lying. Obama, clearly rejuvenated, emerged apparently triumphant. As The Guardian reported the next day:
'Until then it was thought the animosity between the two was confined to policy but it became apparent there is also deep personal antipathy. At one point Romney, almost contemptuous of the president, told him: "You will get your chance in a minute. I am speaking." Republicans may view this as Romney standing up to Obama and what they regard as a representative of the liberal media, but the risk is that independents view it as rudeness.'
The third main debate took place in Florida on 22 October. The polls had been wilder than ever. It would be a win in November for Romney by 7% or a win for Obama by 5%. Any swing voter hoping for clarity was to be disappointed. Yes, the third stand-off was also a "win" for Obama but by the most slender of margins. Reagan might have won the 1980 election with ten words in a Presidential debate - “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”. Many undecided voters knew the answer. Here, there was no sign of such a winning formula. According to one commentator, it was "like watching a guilt-free reality show". Those who produce opinion polls continue with their trade. I have looked at everything they have published since that third debate and am able to tell you who will win the election. It will be Romney with a 5% lead or Obama will win by 12%. Unless, that is, the outcome is dependent on something called electoral college votes. Then, I would wager, it is likely to be between these extremes.
"Osama bin Laden is dead and General Motors is alive". Back on 6 September, I was noting that Joe Biden - of all people - had finally found a narrative for the Obama campaign. As for the rest of that get-together of the donkeys, it all seemed a trifle lacklustre. Barnstorming Bill was all very well but unlikely to appeal to the undecided. Well, the American public disagreed. While in August, the opinion polls were showing the two main candidates alternating for first position, Romney was second in all but one throughout September. Many polls were showing an Obama lead of 4-10%, one indicated that he had a 15% lead, and the one that he didn't win was a tie. Even so, supporters of the President were advised to exercise caution. The number of polls showing only a 1-3% lead wasn't insignificant. Then, in Denver, on 3 October, there was the first of the televised debates. Romney appeared to be in command while Obama was viewed as surprisingly hesitant. Actually, it was worse. The figures on who "won" the debate were abysmal for Obama. During the first week in October, Romney was ahead in the opinion polls with a lead of 1-4%. One debate had been sufficient to undo all of the positive impact of the Democratic convention and the elephants were pretty jubilant.
In the Vice Presidential debate on 11 October, Joe Biden took on the Republicans' young hopeful Paul Ryan. Biden, who is renowned for unfortunate gaffes, was perhaps a surprising choice last time round as Obama's running mate. I doubt that it was a certainty that he would be running to be Vice President again but it was he who was chosen. His performance on the night, full of interruptions and finger wagging, was described by critics as "weirdly aggressive". The worry was that this would have alienated women and swing voters. However, the opinion polls suggested that this year's biggest winner, uncertainty, was now again in the front seat. Did Romney have a 4% lead or was Obama ahead by seven percentage points? By 16 October, no one had the faintest idea, including the two main candidates as they went into the second debate in New York. Watched by tens of millions of Americans, the two squared off, only a few feet apart, talking over one another, jabbing fingers at one another and accusing each other of lying. Obama, clearly rejuvenated, emerged apparently triumphant. As The Guardian reported the next day:
'Until then it was thought the animosity between the two was confined to policy but it became apparent there is also deep personal antipathy. At one point Romney, almost contemptuous of the president, told him: "You will get your chance in a minute. I am speaking." Republicans may view this as Romney standing up to Obama and what they regard as a representative of the liberal media, but the risk is that independents view it as rudeness.'
The third main debate took place in Florida on 22 October. The polls had been wilder than ever. It would be a win in November for Romney by 7% or a win for Obama by 5%. Any swing voter hoping for clarity was to be disappointed. Yes, the third stand-off was also a "win" for Obama but by the most slender of margins. Reagan might have won the 1980 election with ten words in a Presidential debate - “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”. Many undecided voters knew the answer. Here, there was no sign of such a winning formula. According to one commentator, it was "like watching a guilt-free reality show". Those who produce opinion polls continue with their trade. I have looked at everything they have published since that third debate and am able to tell you who will win the election. It will be Romney with a 5% lead or Obama will win by 12%. Unless, that is, the outcome is dependent on something called electoral college votes. Then, I would wager, it is likely to be between these extremes.
I guess the next question is abiout the Sandy factor - did storm Sandy offer the Pres an opportunity he couldn't refuse? And how will they pick up their campaigns after such a hiatus? All still to play for, by the look of it
Comment