News - confidence vote limit reached

[Dave2002]

Just saw a note that enough letters have now been written to force a no-confidence vote in BJ. Pity - as I and many others will not be enfranchised as I'm not a Con party member - or supporter, or live in an area with a Con MP.

As I understand it, under the rules if the vote fails to oust BJ there can't be another vote for a year or so.

I was hoping that this wouldn't happen for a little while - so as to allow even more time for this disaster to progress to give greater certainty of a significant result. As it is, there is a danger that this won't have the immediate desired [by me, at any rate] effect.

[french frank]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46547246

She still resigned. Depends how difficult things are for Johnson.

[burning dog]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46547246

She still resigned. Depends how difficult things are for Johnson.

Has to be a very large vote of confidence for him to survive without becoming a "lame duck" prime minister. Can't see him being leader at the next general election.

[Dave2002]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46547246

She still resigned. Depends how difficult things are for Johnson.

I'm hoping as difficult as possible.

He could have been good - and I write that not as a supporter of him or his party - but he has taken just about every opportunity to turn things bad, and shows every sign of continuing to do so.

[french frank]

Listening to Brady, it seems that an undisclosed number were waiting for the Jubilee celebrations to be over before putting in their letters (or post-dating them).

[burning dog]

Jeremy Hunt has taken over as the bookies favourite to succeed Johnson from Liz Truss. For the previous 2 years it was Sunak.

[french frank]

IHe could have been good - and I write that not as a supporter of him or his party - but he has taken just about every opportunity to turn things bad, and shows every sign of continuing to do so.

I was discussig this with a friend who - to my surprise - was stressing the good decisions he'd made (I'm less charitable). But in the end, it isn't about how well he did with vaccines or support for Ukraine. It's: 'Has he been a good prime minister, taking everything into consideration?'

I think Brady's [point about the Jubilee is interesting because 'word was' that people would wait until after the byelections. Feelings were seemingly too strong for that.

Hunt, eh?

[LHC]

Even if he wins a confidence vote, the mere fact that a sizeable proportion of his party have no confidence in him will make him a lame duck.

There is also an argument that it might be best for the rest of us if he does win, as it will mean the Tories will be lumbered with him until the next election, and they will continue to lose popularity and votes during that period.

Johnson continuing as the PM might therefore be the best chance for a change in government at the next election. If there was to be a change at this point, it would allow the Tories to distance themselves from the mistakes of the Johnson era in advance of the next election.

On Hunt, as he hasn't been a minister under Johnson, he can at least present himself as a 'new broom' who wasn't one of Johnson's acolytes (and hope that everyone has forgotten his stint as Minister for Health)

[Dave2002]

I was discussig this with a friend who - to my surprise - was stressing the good decisions he'd made (I'm less charitable). But in the end, it isn't about how well he did with vaccines or support for Ukraine. It's: 'Has he been a good prime minister, taking everything into consideration?'

I think Brady's [point about the Jubilee is interesting because 'word was' that people would wait until after the byelections. Feelings were seemingly too strong for that.

Hunt, eh?

I'd go with Hunt, but the BJ smear campaign will be underway.

[Petrushka]

I doubt if the shambling oaf will resign even if the vote shows 100% against him. He did once say that it would take an army of tanks to get him out of No 10.

I've been saying for a long time that it will take tear gas and stun grenades from the SAS to evict him.

[Pulcinella]

I pity whoever moves into number 10 next and has to deal with all that wallpaper.

[Petrushka]

I pity whoever moves into number 10 next and has to deal with all that wallpaper.

Carrie is steaming it off as we speak.

[oddoneout]

I doubt if the shambling oaf will resign even if the vote shows 100% against him. He did once say that it would take an army of tanks to get him out of No 10.

I've been saying for a long time that it will take tear gas and stun grenades from the SAS to evict him.

And I suspect that it wouldn't do to underestimate Carrie's influence - if she doesn't want to go then that will add to the PM's pigheadedness (aka gross irresponsible selfishness)
I find myself undecided, but completely depressed, about the whole matter. On the one hand my loathing for the person called Prime Minister and the havoc and destruction he has wreaked wants him out as quickly as possible. My more rational(cynical?) side says that even if he does go whatever replaces him will not make a positive difference, it will be business as usual - Me first, Party second, country nowhere - and the inevitable disruption will do nothing to improve the running of the country as all attention and effort will be focused on Tory Party concerns. The trend to poor and worsening quality of life for increasing numbers of people will continue unabated.
There is also an argument for him to stay so that he can continue to dig an even bigger hole for a GE to fall into. Trouble with that as far as I see it is that the combination of FPTP and voter aversion to Labour (which will be whipped up even more by the vested media interests) won't produce a change other than possibly of size of Tory majority. Certainly my home county will remain resolutely and completely blue through and through - as will the tens of thousands of us who don't vote Tory...

[Pulcinella]

Dare one hope that any subsequent/consequent leadership contest will reveal just how divided the party actually is, causing it to spilt and gradually self-destruct?
At local elections recently, some candidates declared themselves as Local Conservatives, presumably already trying to distance themselves from aspects of the nasty party they didn't want to be associated with.

[oddoneout]

Dare one hope that any subsequent/consequent leadership contest will reveal just how divided the party actually is, causing it to spilt and gradually self-destruct?
At local elections recently, some candidates declared themselves as Local Conservatives, presumably already trying to distance themselves from aspects of the nasty party they didn't want to be associated with.

I saw an article about that trend to distance from No10 but it just made me think that surely they should be Local Conservatives first and foremost anyway - ie putting their constituents first? Actions speak louder than words and can go a long way override natural inclinations to vote on political party grounds. Norman Lamb for instance was not an obvious fit for North Norfolk.