The new Brexit 50p coin

[LHC]

Basically, based on the 2016 referendum, if 7m leavers switch to remain in a referendum on EU membership, ceteris paribus, remain wins by 23m to 10m. I don't remember where the stats come from but I read it in all different places over the last 3 years. It doesn't matter where the stats come from anyway, because no-one is seriously challenging the stats, not even Brexiteers.

I suspect that’s based on some fairly extreme wishful thinking. Most polls since the referendum have shown that the result of a second referendum would be very close, with a majority of people stating they would vote the same way again. A review of polls conducted by YouGov in late 2019 suggested a result of 53:47 in favour of remain, and this is one of the few times that none of the various polls showed a majority for leave. This represented a 5% swing to remain, one of the largest swings since the referendum. To suggest that over 40% of leave voters had changed their minds since 2016 is frankly unbelievable. It may that you have misremembered a suggested 7% swing as a change of 7 million voters.

[Andy Freude]

I suspect that’s based on some fairly extreme wishful thinking.

I would definitely have agreed with that, but checking the YouGov poll of 17-18 Jan:

How happy or unhappy do you feel today about Brexit?

Very happy 3%
Fairly happy 7%
Fairly unhappy 25%
Very unhappy 37%
No difference 19%
Don't know 7%
Prefer not to say 2%

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/how-happy-or-unhappy-do-you-feel-today-about-brexit/

[LHC]

I would definitely have agreed with that, but checking the YouGov poll of 17-18 Jan:

How happy or unhappy do you feel today about Brexit?

Very happy 3%
Fairly happy 7%
Fairly unhappy 25%
Very unhappy 37%
No difference 19%
Don't know 7%
Prefer not to say 2%

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/question...-about-brexit/

That poll was from January 2019, and looking at the longer term trends on the same site, it appears there was a temporary surge for remain in Jan/Feb last year. The figures were much closer for the rest of the year.

YouGov's polling from earlier this week suggests there is widespread support for the current Government:

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 49% (+4)
LAB: 29% (-4)
LDEM: 10% (-2)
GRN: 4% (+1)
BREX: 2% (-)

via @YouGov, 24 - 26 Jan

[edited when I noticed your polling data was from last year]

[Padraig]

Let's make our temporary departure sound like a victory. We're Still Here even if only for One More Day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34L0kuDRvAE

[greenilex]

Thank you for one more splitting headache...but seriously, if I hadn’t just woken up after my midday rest I guess I would be in the mood for a pickmeup.. every minute counts.

It may go down in history as the day on which Trump threw down the gauntlet to the entire massed nation of Islam and smiled a fatheaded smile at his daughter and her idiot husband. Sorry, but that’s how it feels to me.

[MrGongGong]

And yet despite that:

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 49% (+4)
LAB: 29% (-4)
LDEM: 10% (-2)
GRN: 4% (+1)
BREX: 2% (-)

via @YouGov, 24 - 26 Jan

The political parties we have no longer reflect the divisions in opinions in people in the country.
So this is pretty meaningless
In the last election, MOST people voted for parties who either wanted to scrap brexit or have a second vote
yet here we are being lied to again about the "will of the people" and other such bullshit

And as for the coins ?
There are plenty of good schemes about to use them to do good
reminds me of this rather wonderful initiative

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/18/neo-nazis-tricked-into-raising-10000-for-charity

[Andy Freude]

[edited when I noticed your polling data was from last year]

I fooled me too.

But I don't think voting intention, especially just at this moment, reflects what the country thinks about leaving the EU. The tragedy is that the real 'enthusiasts' - Leave and Remain - were probably always a minority, even when lumped together. In terms of policies on offer the British have always been pretty apolitical and have their own reasons for voting how they do.

[Andy Freude]

By Region: Was Britain Right/Wrong to vote to leave EU (DKs removed)

Overall 46/54
London 34/66
South England 51/49
Midlands/Wales 54/46
North England 47/53
Scotland 27/73

That IS now.Also

"A few days before we leave the European Union, a large proportion of people think that we’ve made the wrong decision, a poll has found.
According to the latest YouGov Brexit tracker, 47% of people believe that Brexit is a mistake, while only 40% think it’s the right course for the country."

https://scramnews.com/days-before-brexit-poll-right-decision/

[CGR]

We're opening a bottle of bubbly tomorrow evening. I hope to have the special 50p coins to give to the grandchildren, and the younger nieces and nephews.

Its a going to be a very proud day for many of us !!!

[Pulcinella]

We're opening a bottle of bubbly tomorrow evening. I hope to have the special 50p coins to give to the grandchildren, and the younger nieces and nephews.

Its a going to be a very proud day for many of us !!!

Well, they'll be a good memento of a disastrous decision, I suppose.
Possibly the only thing in their favour.

[pastoralguy]

We're opening a bottle of bubbly tomorrow evening. I hope to have the special 50p coins to give to the grandchildren, and the younger nieces and nephews.

Its a going to be a very proud day for many of us !!!

A friend of mine runs the family business importing and exporting specialised lime putty used in the restoration of historic buildings. He's had to pay £6k to register the firm in Ireland in order to keep trading with the EU.

Maybe £6k is neither here nor there to Government but it's a lot for a small business so I suspect that my friend won't be able to afford much champagne!

[gradus]

No doubt our fisherman who will be shafted encore une fois as the 'negotiations' wear on. Perhaps a half-sunken trawler on the coin? Yippee aye ay, we've got our country back.

[Eine Alpensinfonie]

I'm still waiting to hear what the actual concrete benefits of leaving are. Even many arch-Quitters are saying it's going to be difficult for quite some time.

[vinteuil]

I'm still waiting to hear what the actual concrete benefits of leaving are. Even many arch-Quitters are saying it's going to be difficult for quite some time.

... come now, Alpie - surely economic, social, diplomatic, and political misery is worth it if we get those Blue Passports?


.

[Pulcinella]

... come now, Alpie - surely economic, social, diplomatic, and political misery is worth it if we get those Blue Passports?


.

Which of course we could have had under existing 'rules' anyway.

Deep despair here.
A very sad day indeed.
And I'm fed up of being told by the Daily Wail that I'm being unpatriotic by not rooting for Britain.