Stormy Weather II

[Serial_Apologist]

Cold, wet, foggy filth up here.
Summer 2024 - will there actually be one?
Or is this climate change in its weeds and rags from now on?

We might have to be thankful, if the only alternatives are to be being roasted or drownded.

[DracoM]

[Old Grumpy]

Sunny skies, pleasant temperature today in N Yorks. Having just gone back into "longs" in yesterday's (to coin a phrase) filth, I am seriously considering reverting to shorts

[Serial_Apologist]

Rain's arrived a tad earlier than predicted, meaning it'll be brolly time for the visit to the shoppy-woppies this afternoon. And it's started at moderate intensity instead of the usual spot or two, suggesting it's going to be a right downpour. So temperature's unlikely to exceed the 20C already reached here. It feels heavy too, with lumpy elevated cloud, suggesting thunder in the air.

[oddoneout]

Suddenly turned warm(properly, not just 'not cold'), but the sun has gone into a sulk and the grey cloud might leak - a few random spots currently. The forecast has moved its arrival to mid evening from late afternoon in the early morning version, but I'm not risking that - I'll take a waterproof when I walk to town for a meeting later.

[Serial_Apologist]

Suddenly turned warm(properly, not just 'not cold'), but the sun has gone into a sulk and the grey cloud might leak - a few random spots currently. The forecast has moved its arrival to mid evening from late afternoon in the early morning version, but I'm not risking that - I'll take a waterproof when I walk to town for a meeting later.

Very advisable. it actually stopped raining here, unexpectedly, not long after posting my previous message, and yes, it has become warmer than predicted - we are for a few hours in the warm sector of the low crossing the middle of the country, namely the air of subtropical origin wedged in between the warm front that brought the earlier rain, and the cold front to follow this evening. I would think the breaking up of the pretty solid rain band that came in from the SW this morning might have something to do with additional heat bringing additional convective potential, fragmenting the band into separate precipitation slivers and cells. When this happens some cells contain and concentrate the energy previously distributed along the frontal surface, leading to concentrated patches of heavy rainfall - sometimes thundery in nature - and other cells shrinking and dispersing. This often seems to happen when thundery warm fronts move north from the English Channel, intensifying as the parent low deepens, dragging in colder air ahead from the North Sea which then gets hoovered out at height by the overlapping jet stream, intensifying cloud upward mobility. When that happens the energy available to the system as a whole often gets sucked out of the following cold front, which can pass through as a relatively minor feature marked by drizzle or little or no rain. The only difference experienced by the observer is a change (veer) in wind direction and fall in temperature (and feel of the air) with the passage of the cold front - further precipitation only resuming as showers follow in the unstable cold air following in its wake. However I now observe that intensification appears not to be happening on the warm front - probably insufficient heat influx - and as a result thunderstorms are now breaking out in the SW and Channel; these can be expected to hit the south and then Midlands in a few hours' time.

[DracoM]

This evening, the winter-set central heating came on at 4 pm.!!!!!!!!!!!
Tells you what sort of [HA!] 'summer' we're getting up here, eh?

[Serial_Apologist]

This evening, the winter-set central heating came on at 4 pm.!!!!!!!!!!!
Tells you what sort of [HA!] 'summer' we're getting up here, eh?

We have a "short window on hope" coming tomorrow, when it starts to warm up, and could even get very warm in our part of the world on Friday. However the overall weather set-up this year does not appear to favour northward extensions of the Azores high necessary to give prolonged warmth from midsummer onwards.

It turns out I was right with my assessments of the options yesterday: the failure of the warm front to benefit from any cold air influx resulted in the cold front remaining very active, and London received over 2" of rain in a matter of three hours yesterday evening.

[Serial_Apologist]

On Radio 4 earlier I heard something to the effect that temperatures could reach 40C in the UK on Monday or Tuesday next week. Don't worry: they won't be.

[DracoM]

REAL sun, REAL warmth - was amazed................yes, actually up here in.....erm.........well,...........Cumbria!

[Serial_Apologist]

Thunderstorms (or rather, truth be told, thundery showers) now breaking out in central S England and the S Midlands, where easterly and westerly air flows collide, forcing the air upwards to form a convergence line. One or two storms ahead of the line along the E Sussex/Kent coastline. Advance warning anvil cloud ahead of the main zone has begun spreading across N London, so it looks as if the London rush hour will be hit. Bang goes my daily free Vit D fix! The complete change back to average or slightly sub-average temperatures is due to come on Saturday.

[Serial_Apologist]

Thunderstorms (or rather, truth be told, thundery showers) now breaking out in central S England and the S Midlands, where easterly and westerly air flows collide, forcing the air upwards to form a convergence line. One or two storms ahead of the line along the E Sussex/Kent coastline. Advance warning anvil cloud ahead of the main zone has begun spreading across N London, so it looks as if the London rush hour will be hit. Bang goes my daily free Vit D fix! The complete change back to average or slightly sub-average temperatures is due to come on Saturday.

Yesterday evening's thunderstorms - and they really were storms, day turned to twilight, as opposed to showers - dropped over 4 inches of rain on parts of Surrey, with flooding in Guildford. Here nothing like as much although it did rain quite hard for about half an hour. The distribution of the rain seems to have varied starkly over small distances. Today the humidity is just as high as yesterday, but with winds now coming in from the SW temperatures have dropped back a couple of degrees. That said, I couldn't help noticing how wet the back of my shirt had become, the moment I sat down, following the uphill ride home with the weekend groceries. Very pleasant sunshine for the ride, though I now observe increasing amounts of medium-level cloud overspreading cumulus that has popped up in the heat, as weak upper-level troughs advance ahead of tomorrow's cold front. Today's shopping spree was in order to avoid any rain associated with the latter.

[Old Grumpy]

Yesterday evening's thunderstorms - and they really were storms, day turned to twilight, as opposed to showers - dropped over 4 inches of rain on parts of Surrey, with flooding in Guildford. Here nothing like as much although it did rain quite hard for about half an hour. The distribution of the rain seems to have varied starkly over small distances. Today the humidity is just as high as yesterday, but with winds now coming in from the SW temperatures have dropped back a couple of degrees. That said, I couldn't help noticing how wet the back of my shirt had become, the moment I sat down, following the uphill ride home with the weekend groceries. Very pleasant sunshine for the ride, though I now observe increasing amounts of medium-level cloud overspreading cumulus that has popped up in the heat, as weak upper-level troughs advance ahead of tomorrow's cold front. Today's shopping spree was in order to avoid any rain associated with the latter.

"Biblical" flooding in Winchester!

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clwy0y7ljj8o

[Serial_Apologist]

"Biblical" flooding in Winchester!

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clwy0y7ljj8o

I love the way in which, above a photograph of a main street thigh-deep in floodwater, a caption reads, "The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites"!

[burning dog]

I love the way in which, above a photograph of a main street thigh-deep in floodwater, a caption reads, "The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites"!

In next weeks Spectator?

"Douglas Murray Blames BBC for Recent Flooding Crisis"