Stormy Weather II

[Petrushka]

All of the 'yellow rain' weather warnings in this area for the weekend have mysteriously vanished from the BBC forecast. It's felt a much cooler day here today with lots of cloud and a fresh breeze. Missing that heat already. Still 27 degrees inside though.

[Serial_Apologist]

The "advance guard" of the main storm line, halfway across The Channel, has just reached Hampshire, making very slow progress northwards. These storms are elevated, ie not dependent on surface-upwards heating, so the big temperature drop that has taken place will not be a factor. I expect Londoners will be woken up some time between 1 and 3 am. The BBC has the main thundery activity crossing us between 7 and 11.30 am, with another lot kicking off around 4 pm then lasting on and off until 11.30 pm.

[Joseph K]

From yesterday into today: it's really quite blustery.

[kernelbogey]

The "advance guard" of the main storm line, halfway across The Channel, has just reached Hampshire, making very slow progress northwards.

Enormous crash, right above the house, at 0250!

[BBMmk2]

Was feeling rather unwell yesterday, but seem to better today. I think normal services will resume!

Last night, what a storm we had! A real storm! Rather cloudy today, with some rain. Around 23C.

[oddoneout]

The "advance guard" of the main storm line, halfway across The Channel, has just reached Hampshire, making very slow progress northwards. These storms are elevated, ie not dependent on surface-upwards heating, so the big temperature drop that has taken place will not be a factor. I expect Londoners will be woken up some time between 1 and 3 am. The BBC has the main thundery activity crossing us between 7 and 11.30 am, with another lot kicking off around 4 pm then lasting on and off until 11.30 pm.

Progress must be slow indeed. There is a mass shown on the local/regional map, but both the Met and the Beeb don't have any rain shown until this time tomorrow(Met) or sometime during the night(Beeb) for my location, and even then not high probability. There is mention of the odd heavy possibly thundery shower later on today, but again doesn't seem very definite.

[Cockney Sparrow]

On the Met Office App and website, its changed 3 times - 7am, 8am, 9am. I understand, its a dynamic situation. And I also revert to the 3 hour rain radar forecast on meteoradar.co.uk if its important (desktop PC). (I watched the TV programme with Spieglehalter on probability / chance in full last night and in the latter part of the programme it revisited Michael Fish and the Great Storm and more current approaches to forecasting).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p00yh2rc/tails-you-win-the-science-of-chance

Mrs CS has less and less patience with any of that. She's happy with a BBC website graphic forecast for the day, no awareness of the time of its issue; but much more importantly, what her instincts tell her..... (stick finger in the air approach). I'm not entirely sure which approach has the better outcome, but my approach does absorb more of my time.......

[gurnemanz]

On the Met Office App and website, its changed 3 times - 7am, 8am, 9am. I understand, its a dynamic situation. And I also revert to the 3 hour rain radar forecast on meteoradar.co.uk if its important (desktop PC). (I watched the TV programme with Spieglehalter on probability / chance in full last night and in the latter part of the programme it revisited Michael Fish and the Great Storm and more current approaches to forecasting).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p00yh2rc/tails-you-win-the-science-of-chance

Mrs CS has less and less patience with any of that. She's happy with a BBC website graphic forecast for the day, no awareness of the time of its issue; but much more importantly, what her instincts tell her..... (stick finger in the air approach). I'm not entirely sure which approach has the better outcome, but my approach does absorb more of my time.......

All forecasters I consulted yesterday were predicting heavy rain for this area overnight and this morning. What materialised wasn't more than a sprinkling. Pity - the garden could have used a drenching.

[Cockney Sparrow]

Looking on the rain radar there is a lot of rain, probably heavy over Belgium/Netherlands and it appears (might be wrong ) that's what's heading our way so it's a matter of timing?
I hope I only have to be interested if I'm going to be out in it or travelling through it. So timing isn't vital and our plants aren't wilting at present.

[Serial_Apologist]

Must admit I got it badly wrong for last night and this morning - but so did "they". It seems the main storm core trundled east along the S coast, not far north, and was depleted of most of its precipitation by the time it reached Dungeness (Not Dungeoness, as I had thought!), although there was still much electrical activity contained within it. The main danger comes this afternoon, with development of a broad covergence zone centreing on the M4 corridor, dependent to a great degree on the sun breaking through the low residual clag to trigger surface convection. It's not often I live in hope that the sun will not come out, as this will lessen the conditions for this to happen, but I am genuinely worried about this one and think the Met Ossiff should have issued an amber warming for areas south of Brum for this afternoon and evening. I would envisage a large MCS-type area of thundery rain covering much of England south of the Mersea and Wales tomorrow, and widespread flooding, as all the converging elements within this slow-moving depression merge into one big blob. Pessimistic? Moi??

[Serial_Apologist]

Some beautiful photo shots of lightning coinciding with rainbows from Tuesday's storms:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-57921718

Quote: "Dan Holley said lightning and a rainbow does not happen particularly often in any one location, primarily because thunderstorms don't happen that often"

[Old Grumpy]

Must admit I got it badly wrong for last night and this morning - but so did "they". It seems the main storm core trundled east along the S coast, not far north, and was depleted of most of its precipitation by the time it reached Dungeness (Not Dungeoness, as I had thought!), although there was still much electrical activity contained within it. The main danger comes this afternoon, with development of a broad covergence zone centreing on the M4 corridor, dependent to a great degree on the sun breaking through the low residual clag to trigger surface convection. It's not often I live in hope that the sun will not come out, as this will lessen the conditions for this to happen, but I am genuinely worried about this one and think the Met Ossiff should have issued an amber warming for areas south of Brum for this afternoon and evening. I would envisage a large MCS-type area of thundery rain covering much of England south of the Mersea and Wales tomorrow, and widespread flooding, as all the converging elements within this slow-moving depression merge into one big blob. Pessimistic? Moi??

Dungeoness suggests something completely different!

[Old Grumpy]

I see the first blue raindrop is now scheduled at 2000h on Tuesday up here on the Met Office app. I was expecting a drenching tomorrow.

OG

[oddoneout]

The blue mass is now out in the North Sea, yellow rain warnings have been removed as has any suggestion of rain before tomorrow morning. The breeze has got blustery and cool (it was probably pretty fresh on the coast today given the direction), not offset by the sun which has been shy this afternoon.

[Serial_Apologist]

Two thunderstorms in the last hour here - loud thunder within a mile and some heavy rain but nothing to enter in the record books... as yet. I think I'll be staying indoors today.