Stormy Weather II

[Serial_Apologist]

I wonder what today’s weather will bring.

I'm still waiting for the showers predicted for the late afternoon. I'm telling myself there are no signs in the cloud forms of the approaching occluded front, it wouldn't surprise me to be caught out again the way I was the other day, when I had to make a run for it in order to avoid a soaking!

The man said this morning that tomorrow will be another day of showers. This was a change from yesterday when Sunday was predicted to be dry in the south; but these weather announcers are now given so little time on radio to deliver that they just go for sweeping generalisations. As one who remembers that the weather forecast on Radio 4 before the on the hour news always started promptly at five minutes to the hour, and was conducted in a certain order, beginning with London and the home counties, ending with Scotland, and saying what wind directions, maximum and minimum temperatures would be, and the whenabouts of any rain etc expected to take place.

[Petrushka]

I'm still waiting for the showers predicted for the late afternoon..

They've been up here! Some hefty showers in the late afternoon preceded by, and interspersed with, some sunshine if still not particularly warm, though a good deal warmer than it has been recently.

[BBMmk2]

Will we get a summer?

[Serial_Apologist]

Will we get a summer?

Not much of one, by present showings. Poor old Lincolnshire - usually one of the driest parts of the country; and we could well be in for a big thunderstorm late on Tuesday, going into Wednesday, in the south east. A few years ago we had a couple of drab summers that followed amazingly wonderful springs; I'm hopng this won't be another like that. However, July and August quite frequently come up trumps, following a poor summer start.

[oddoneout]

Will we get a summer?

We had it earlier in the year didn't we? Might get another chance in September after the schools have gone back.

[Serial_Apologist]

We had it earlier in the year didn't we? Might get another chance in September after the schools have gone back.

The usual problem with "early summers" is that sea temperatures are at their coldest, the nights are still cold, and daytime temperatures always take a time to heat up.

[BBMmk2]

The usual problem with "early summers" is that sea temperatures are at their coldest, the nights are still cold, and daytime temperatures always take a time to heat up.

El Niño is active though?

[Serial_Apologist]

El Niño is active though?

TBH I don't understand about the role El Nino is supposed to exert of world weather.

Anyway, brace yourselves for another onslaught of heavy rain tomorrow - especially if you live in Lincolnshire - poor dears!

[vinteuil]

TBH I don't understand about the role El Nino is supposed to exert of world weather.

... indeed, as wiki saith :

"El Niño's effects on Europe are controversial, complex and difficult to analyse, as it is one of several factors that influence the weather over the continent and other factors can overwhelm the signal... "

[Serial_Apologist]

... indeed, as wiki saith :

"El Niño's effects on Europe are controversial, complex and difficult to analyse, as it is one of several factors that influence the weather over the continent and other factors can overwhelm the signal... "

That said, surely one must be pretty certain that the effect of the Equatorial sea currents reversing direction from the more usual east to west flow must be pretty drastic on the patterns further afield, and on the resultant weather. I would suppose that, by bringing in hotter than usual winds to the west coast of Mexico, the heating of sea waters in the area of Pacific Ocean off the north-west corner of South America associated with an El Nino would augment the factors already initiating convection, (sea surface temperatures > 28 degs Celsius), thereby intensifying tropical cyclone deepening in the Bay of Mexico, and that this would have knock-on effects in transporting already deepened low pressure systems up the eastern US seaboard, to affect the Atlantic circulation transported aboard the Gulf Stream, resulting in deeper and (with all that extra heat and moisture) rainier depressions reaching Britain and Europe. All that extra Atlantic seawater warmth also finds its way beyond the Arctic Circle, contributing to Polar melting - the knock-on effect of which in turn reduces the temperature differential along the Polar front thought to keep the jet stream more-or-less straight, leading to the zig-zag pattern, with its tendency to blocking, which has also become the norm in the past few years - though to what extent that, in turn, would in itself bring about an increased frequency in the occurrence of El Ninos, I have no idea. I was just yesterday lookng back at weather diaries I kept between 1975 and 1981, as well as others I kept less accurately in the early 1960s, and right throughout, the evidence of blocking - the hold-up of eastward movement of depressions when they become detached from the jet stream and "cut off" - is that it was mainly a rarity, restricted to those occasions where the Siberian High - a permanent winter feature - expanded westwards, giving us "beasts from the East", and summers when the Azores high moved further north to extend its influence ande give the UK hot dry summers - afterw which the jet stream would quickly re-establish its predominant west-to-east driving character.

[BBMmk2]

I see reports are saying that we will be in balmy conditions of 29C after the weekend or something like that? After having rather having torrential rains and storms.

[zola]

I see reports are saying that we will be in balmy conditions of 29C after the weekend or something like that? After having rather having torrential rains and storms.

Don't think so mate, unless it's the Daily Express reporting ?

[DracoM]

Well yesterday we had our FIRST day oop 'ere that felt like a real June.

[Stanfordian]

It's a beautiful day today on the Fylde coast. Perfect, sunny but not too hot with a very slight sea breeze.

[Serial_Apologist]

Don't think so mate, unless it's the Daily Express reporting ?

That's most probable!

Thundery rain has arrived at midday across London today, but these are just remnants of an earlier minor storm that formed over the Channel. If it really does kick off here in the SE, as the forecasters are predicting, it will probably be after rush hour this evening, though the situation is balanced on a knife edge with these elevated situations being subject to change on the tiniest of atmospheric modifications - all rather like the processes that take place in a Xenakis composition! If it does turn nasty it could well run on into tomorrow, not clearing the east until evening time.

PS: Once the weather clears on Thursday, a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in from the SW, and then move acrossw the whole country bringing fine if not especially warm conditions for next weekend, (which, to be truthful, suits me fine), followed more-or-less by a repeat of where we are now. However, someone has done some averaging and found that poor summer starts are rarely maintained for the entire season.