Stormy Weather II

[cloughie]

Lovely spring morning bright sunny and blue here!

[BBMmk2]

What’s it going to be like today, who knows?!?!?

Cloughie, seems like that here!

[Sir Velo]

Yep, ditto, but suspect rain is on he way this evening.

If you can see the fells it'll be raining soon, and if you can't it already is, eh?

[Sir Velo]

Wonderful Spring day here.
Gardening in shirt sleeves!

Ne'er cast a clout....

[Serial_Apologist]

Now, I'm usually one to counter the oft-made claims of bad forecasting these days, because weather forecasting is much better now than it was, say 20 years ago, and seems to be improving all the time. However... the past 24 hours' worth of official forecasts has been the worst by far for a long time. The night before last, rain was predicted to spread across the region in the evening from the NW: we had no rain whatsoever. Yesterday we were told it would remain dry across most areas, except for along parts of the east coast: as this was being stated I watched a large and very dark area of cloud approach from the north-east, to be followed by two hours of moderate rain, leaving deep puddles still around today. Then today we had the woman who regularly presents the London area midday forecast showing us a chart with rain, which btw had also not been forecast for London, departing across Kent, with just a few spits and spots for the afternoon, telling us that "there's probably more [rain] to come than that [indicating] suggests" - whereupon all the cloud immediately broke up with bright sunshine and clear skies showing that the frontal system bringing the rain had obviously moved well away. This suggests to me that the weather people are becoming far too dependent on "models" based on precedent, instead of just going up on the roof at the Met and simply doing what I and countless other amateur forecasters do, namely observe cloud amounts and types, wind direction and temperature change. Yesterday's forecast predicted temperatures reaching 13-14 C today here; I could see no chance of such values being reached. Indeed, at midday it was just 5 C here, which is lower than the minima they are predicting for tonight, and it was still only 6 C when I made my way by bike to the local shops, having to don gloves!

[DracoM]

Well.....even www.yr.no have got it wrong today!!
Predicting cloud?
Ahem...........We've had mostly sun, and tonght skies clear, big stars and 3C! Looks like frost!

[BBMmk2]

Well, wonder what will happen. Today, weather wise? Looks uninspiring this morning!

SA I didn’t feel warm yesterday!

[cloughie]

Looks like another as yesterday - happy with that!

[oddoneout]

Now, I'm usually one to counter the oft-made claims of bad forecasting these days, because weather forecasting is much better now than it was, say 20 years ago, and seems to be improving all the time. However... the past 24 hours' worth of official forecasts has been the worst by far for a long time. The night before last, rain was predicted to spread across the region in the evening from the NW: we had no rain whatsoever. Yesterday we were told it would remain dry across most areas, except for along parts of the east coast: as this was being stated I watched a large and very dark area of cloud approach from the north-east, to be followed by two hours of moderate rain, leaving deep puddles still around today. Then today we had the woman who regularly presents the London area midday forecast showing us a chart with rain, which btw had also not been forecast for London, departing across Kent, with just a few spits and spots for the afternoon, telling us that "there's probably more [rain] to come than that [indicating] suggests" - whereupon all the cloud immediately broke up with bright sunshine and clear skies showing that the frontal system bringing the rain had obviously moved well away. This suggests to me that the weather people are becoming far too dependent on "models" based on precedent, instead of just going up on the roof at the Met and simply doing what I and countless other amateur forecasters do, namely observe cloud amounts and types, wind direction and temperature change. Yesterday's forecast predicted temperatures reaching 13-14 C today here; I could see no chance of such values being reached. Indeed, at midday it was just 5 C here, which is lower than the minima they are predicting for tonight, and it was still only 6 C when I made my way by bike to the local shops, having to don gloves!

That is rather a discrepancy SA. No comfort to you but the forecast here was just about spot on yesterday, including being cold.

[Serial_Apologist]

That is rather a discrepancy SA. No comfort to you but the forecast here was just about spot on yesterday, including being cold.

Everything was being miscalculated by a distance of about 50 miles - maybe someone had omitted to deliver the seaweed to the Met Office! Oh well, it is now raining, as was predicted for today, so they've got it right once more! Light northerly - temperature 7 C.

Edit: It was announced on the lunchtime report that 17.8 C had been registered at Perth - that's Perth, Scotland, not Australia! This is a classic example of the mini-Föhn effect, named afterr the phenomenon first (?) discovered in Switzerland, in which, with a relatively warm airstream, trapped under a fair weather temperature inversion, or "cap", and compressed to squeeze out "orographic" rain as it rises to cross elevated ground, then dries out on the descending, leeward side of the high ground, causes temperatures to rise disproportionately to their previous fall with height as a consequence of the drying out of the air being carried. It may seem surprising that an occurrence associated with mountain ranges - similar happens in Canada where the drying westerlies descending from the Rockies are known as the Chinook - can even result in association with our modest mountains and hills: the north and west coasts of Wales and Lancashire west of the Pennines often experience very high temperatures in spring and early summer while east coastal areas from Scotland to Kent remain cold and cloudy, in association with the north-easterles common at that time of year. And the fact that some of the highest recorded summertime temperatures in the UK have been recorded on the Kent side of the Thames is the product of warm air of Continental origin descending the dip slope of the North Downs.

[BBMmk2]

Despite the so called improvement, the forecasts are still wrong, more times than I care to remember. Looks like a good day to be had!

[oddoneout]

Should be sunny all day, and dry, but the wind direction and speed will keep temperature down as per usual. Never mind, always good to see the sun, and have a chance for the garden to dry out a bit - and the washing.

[Serial_Apologist]

Should be sunny all day, and dry, but the wind direction and speed will keep temperature down as per usual. Never mind, always good to see the sun, and have a chance for the garden to dry out a bit - and the washing.

Fair weather cumulus in small amounts, borne on a gentle north-easterly, very clear visibility - midday temperature here 8 C: might even venture out on the bike this afternoon.

[vinteuil]

.

... very pleasant walk in mild bright sunshine down the cherry blossom lined floriferous streets of Hammersmith . for a meeting with my dentist to discuss root canal treatment next week .

[DracoM]

Still, easterly tiny breeze, grey, but not too cold. Suspect rain later? Temp c 7C