Stormy Weather II

[Joseph K]

It was actually 4 degrees warmer here at midday (21 C) today than yesterday, but with the breeze getting up I think it might well have peaked not far above that.

We have one more day of this, then I'm afraid it's all downhill, with heavy thunderstorms being predicted from Wednesday, especially for S Wales, the Midlands, E Anglia and then northwards, followed by much cooler unsettled and windy weather. We might well get the thunder down here, but not the worst of it. So, to make the most of it - while giving my legs a bit of respite following yesterday's 14 mile cycle marathon - I shall this afternoon be taking a walk around the neighbourhood parks and woodlands, which are at their most beautiful right now.

Thanks for the head's up on the weather.

[DracoM]

W'end next [27/28th April] forecast looks fraught, and decidedly chilly. Well, for oop 'ere, it is.

[BBMmk2]

W'end next [27/28th April] forecast looks fraught, and decidedly chilly. Well, for oop 'ere, it is.

Supposed to down hereabouts as well! Brr!

[Serial_Apologist]

DracoM, but more particularly those posting here from slightly to his south in an area covering Merseaside, Manchester and the Peaks, shold be on watch for some potentially violent thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, running into the evening. Looks like we'll miss all this further south, as the actual storms, starting from the SW and Wales in the morning, will only trigger further east when the frontal system has already crossed here from the south.

As BBM says the weekend looks pretty atrocious everywhere, winds gusting to gale force on the Saturday. It'll be back to hot cooked food for me again!

[oddoneout]

Very chilly yesterday morning until the sun broke through. Warmer this morning with the sun out, and little wind movement. The rain forecast is constantly changing - today seems to have been ruled out and Thursday is the favourite for now, although earlier in the day than forecast last night - which would suit me walking to evening choir rehearsal!

[Pulcinella]

DracoM, but more particularly those posting here from slightly to his south in an area covering Merseaside, Manchester and the Peaks, shold be on watch for some potentially violent thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, running into the evening. Looks like we'll miss all this further south, as the actual storms, starting from the SW and Wales in the morning, will only trigger further east when the frontal system has already crossed here from the south.

As BBM says the weekend looks pretty atrocious everywhere, winds gusting to gale force on the Saturday. It'll be back to hot cooked food for me again!

Growing up in Crosby, where Gormley's Another Place now adorns the view from the Esplanade (), I'm not sure that we thought of us as being beside the sea!

Over 6mm of welcome rain forecast for us here today according the the yr weather site, starting at about 14:00.

[DracoM]

At the mo - 9.29 a.m. - the wind is dry as, strong and rowdy, clouds sort of greyish, whiteish, blueish.
And, boy, do we need rain or what! 5 weeks of zero rain in critical growing season so far. Parched fields, farmers pretty desperate for decent pasturing?
Erm......
Mentioned on national forecasts? You must be joking. Just imagine if this had been in the South! Phew!. Headlines, OBs, 'Project Drought' etc etc.

[cloughie]

Back to average for the time of year here with rain accompaniment!

[BBMmk2]

Back to average for the time of year here with rain accompaniment!

We had some rain earlier on. Seems the sun is trying to come out now.

[Serial_Apologist]

When I came on here a few minutes ago, I was thinking, maybe the thunder event is not going to happen? Since when, I've been watching storms breaking out in a slightly curved line from just south of Dublin to Mnnich, by way of Brum and Ipswich. A line like that indicates that (to me) amusing term "organised showers", i.e. an airflow convergence line such as an upper level trough or frontal system. The rash of lightning "pop-ups" to the south of that line is more of a randomised phenomenon - clouds building up from surface heating into showers and thunderstorms, which are more difficult to predict as to where and when. And such "single cell" storms last for usually no more than 45 minutes and then decay; so it all depends on surface heating and strength of wind and direction as to whether that big cumulus will grow into a cumulonimbus and give me a heavy shower with possibly one or two lightning strikes by the time it reaches here, or uses up its energy before arriving, or only becomes a storm after it's passed. There have just been a couple of 'spherics (lightning flashes caught on radar) just within the M25 on the Essex/Kent side - too far from here, with a hill in the way, to see with me own eyes. And a couple of 'spherics down near Portsmouth. By the time that storm reaches Reading, on the prevailing southerly wind, it will have died out; but meanwhile another cumulus now growing between those two points may have developed sufficiently to arrive at a thundery stage by the time it does reach Reading. What determines this is all down to microscoping interfactorings at different levels and directions that can be triggered by the slightest thing - in that analogy of a butterfly flapping its wings on one side of the globe precipitating a hurricane on the other!

[DracoM]

First rumbles here a few moments ago - unless it was an empty farmer's truck rapping past?

[Serial_Apologist]

First rumbles here a few moments ago - unless it was an empty farmer's truck rapping past?

The furthest north so far are Liverpool and Leicester; but hang on, because it's really taken off between Crewe to Nottingham, and is only a matter of time: Birmingham seems to have escaped the worst, which had only just reached the thunder stage at that point, as it moved north across the conurbation.

[Serial_Apologist]

That same curved line has really kicked off over the continent now, with lightning flashing all the time in a line stretching south from Luxembourg to where the Swiss, German and French borders meet - following the Rhine roughly and probably exacerbated by orographi factors, the air being forced up by the mountainous terrain. Blitzortung shows 'spherics as tomato seed like blots, which go plain yellow after a couple of minutes and then brown for about an hour before fading - and those "tomato seeds" are amazingly clustered into a straight line about 15 miles in width, with a few to each side - they must be having one hell of a storm down there - a locus for frequent flooding, too!

[DracoM]

BUT cricket is still playing at Old Trafford.............?

[Serial_Apologist]

BUT cricket is still playing at Old Trafford.............?

The first flash has just happened for Manchester! I would imagine that play will be off pretty quick, with that danger around. Most of the stormy stuff is still to the south of there.

Here's the link to that Blitzortung site, which is fascinating to watch!

https://www.lightningmaps.org/