Arts in the UK post-Brexit

[ahinton]

yes, events clearly affect rates, but it is very significant that the pound is close to where it has been against the euro for much of the last 10 years, and that the decline against the dollar is similar to that experienced by the euro.

Running our economy with too much regard to short term exchange rate fluctuations , annoying though they can be, would be pretty unwise.

If we want to pick out economic indicators in isolation, you might just as well look at exports, since they are doing well .

UK Exports are bound to do better when the pound is low against the currencies of those countries to which such exports are made. Yes, short-termism's of precious little use but I don't see the current UK currency problem as a short-term issue unless Brexit is scuppered, which it might yet be at one stage or another.

[teamsaint]

UK Exports are bound to do better when the pound is low against the currencies of those countries to which such exports are made. Yes, short-termism's of precious little use but I don't see the current UK currency problem as a short-term issue unless Brexit is scuppered, which it might yet be at one stage or another.

But the currency is more or less at a "normal" level against the euro, the problem, if there is one, is against a rather anomalous high which had been around for a year or two, and which could be seen to have now corrected.

The long term "problem" against the dollar is one reflected in the Euro/dollar rate, and over a period when we have been in the EU. So that is really a whole other discussion, reflecting the long term success of the US economy and the stagnation of Europe, and in particular the eurozone.

looking for good news rather than issues?

If Brexit happens we will be free to make deals on better terms with the parts of the world where our exports are growing, rather than tied to terms set by and in export markets where we are exporting less and less.

[Beef Oven!]

UK Exports are bound to do better when the pound is low against the currencies of those countries to which such exports are made. Yes, short-termism's of precious little use but I don't see the current UK currency problem as a short-term issue unless Brexit is scuppered, which it might yet be at one stage or another.

Reveals the remainer mindset, nicely.

[MrGongGong]

"Arts in the UK post-Brexit"

[french frank]

n fact the pound has been below 1.2 euros for quite substantial periods of time over the last 10 years. Actually from late 2007 to mid 2014 it was never over 1.30, and for the vast majority of that time was below 1.2 […] or maybe this is all " post truth."

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?fr...o=USD&view=10Y

But 2008 saw the crash which ushered in unusual fluctuations. On 23 June it stood at €1.31 and today it's €1.18. I make that a drop of 11% (even after a rise over recent days).

http://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-EUR-exchange-rate-history-full.html

[Barbirollians]

The world is going to hell in a handcart - the parallels with the 1930s are horrifying and now in Trump we have a leader of a major country who is almost undoubtedly the most emotionally unstable and right wing since Hitler , Franco and Mussolini .

10 years ago Farage , Katie Hopkins , Paul ( I am in favour of torture) Nuttall and the like would have been fringe figures largely held in contempt . Now they are mainstream.

[jayne lee wilson]

Watching Theresa May's speech, telling us that "The British People" had voted for Brexit "with quiet resolve" and announcing to the Republican convention that they had scored a "stunning victory", which had "united the American People".... then the earnest TV discussions of Trump's "promises" as if they can now be relied upon....

The rhetoric and the lies, the attacks upon "the media", the "alternative facts" layer up upon themselves day by day, making Art and Music, Literature, Film, Poetry and Journalism of Integrity more vital than ever. Join what you can, campaign in whichever way you can. Never stop believing in the balanced mind, the liberal-humanist intellectual tradition of clear thinking and respect for language. Make friends with those who can still see. "When you're going through Hell, Keep Going"....

[teamsaint]

But 2008 saw the crash which ushered in unusual fluctuations. On 23 June it stood at €1.31 and today it's €1.18. I make that a drop of 11% (even after a rise over recent days).

http://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-...tory-full.html

you really can't sensibly look at exchange rates on two given days and draw a worthwhile conclusion about economic fundamentals.

look back over 10 years, and you will find that the pound has regularly traded around 1.20 against the euro.

Then one needs to look at the pattern, ( not a snapshot) of both the pound and the euro against the dollar.

Not sure what your point about 2008 is. It presumably did bring unusual fluctuations, but such things were nothing new.

[ahinton]

Reveals the remainer mindset, nicely.

Yes - although I suspect that most of us here knew what the word meant already.

[P. G. Tipps]

A devalued currency inevitably means holders of that currency are rendered poorer in real (world) terms.

The claim that it gives an immediate boost to a country's exports is also true, but then inflation creeps into the system (because of increased costs due to that very devaluation) and prices then rise again so we are straight back to 'square one'.

Worse, when inflation starts rising interest rates eventually go up to stem the tide and protect the currency which will almost certainly fall further so the holders of the currency become even poorer still.

As the Yanks might put it, a complete Double Whammy ... or, rather more accurately , a Fool's Paradise for those among us who somehow think that continually making us all poorer will somehow make us all richer in the end?

[french frank]

you really can't sensibly look at exchange rates on two given days and draw a worthwhile conclusion about economic fundamentals

look back over 10 years, and you will find that the pound has regularly traded around 1.20 against the euro

… Not sure what your point about 2008 is.

Averaging those daily figures - 2739 days - since 2009 (with all the fluctuations between the pound and the euro) which includes the period when recession was heaviest in the UK and the pound almost fell to parity, and heaviest in the eurozone when the pound reached €1.44, today's price of €1.18 is 3% down against that average of €1.22 (and 6% down on the difference between maximum and minimum - for what that's worth).

The significance of 2008 is that that was the start of the Great Recession (as it is known).

[teamsaint]

Averaging those daily figures - 2739 days - since 2009 (with all the fluctuations between the pound and the euro) which includes the period when recession was heaviest in the UK and the pound almost fell to parity, and heaviest in the eurozone when the pound reached €1.44, today's price of €1.18 is 3% down against that average of €1.22 (and 6% down on the difference between maximum and minimum - for what that's worth).

The significance of 2008 is that that was the start of the Great Recession (as it is known).

so the pound is now trading at a more or less normal level against the euro, as I have been saying.That's pretty encouraging,IMO, taken on its own, given the enormity of the decision.

And the long term decline of both the Euro and the pound against the dollar is probably just as important in any case.

( and re your point about the pound's value when the recession was heaviest, the period we are discussing includes that when the recession was at its worst in the Eurozone.)

Exchange rates are not a fundamental, they reflect fundamentals. As well looking at the challenges facing the UK, it is really important to also focus on the long term economic issues affecting EU countries and especially Eurozone, and Britain's economic relationships with those areas.

[Karafan]

All the more reason to pick on him, then!


I personally don't think so, I know so - and I am far from alone in that. The referendum was called by Cameron and his party and no one else, although this foolish decision to do so was undoubtedly fuelled at least in part by an irrational and ultimately unfounded fear of defections from his party to UKIP, which was hardly a justifiable basis for the most fundamental legislative change in living memory; if the subject of UK's possible severance from EU membership was to be included in any party manifesto at all (and it was included in only one such without obvious genuine reason), it should never have been so in the form of a referendum but instead subjected to the very kind of Parliamentary debate that the High and Supreme Courts have now insisted upon for the triggering of A50 should it occur.

Hear, hear ahinton! And what still infuriates me is that this whole damned mess is predicated on weak and shifting sand legally - the UK does not have provisions which would require the result of a referendum (and a legally advisory one, at that) implementing!

The fact that Cameron said in a leaflet that they would enact the result whatever the decision was is meaningless. A leaflet is not the law and that strategy was not approved by parliament before the referndum was held.

[Beef Oven!]

Hear, hear ahinton! And what still infuriates me is that this whole damned mess is predicated on weak and shifting sand legally - the UK does not have provisions which would require the result of a referendum (and a legally advisory one, at that) implementing!

The fact that Cameron said in a leaflet that they would enact the result whatever the decision was is meaningless. A leaflet is not the law and that strategy was not approved by parliament before the referndum was held.

Article 50 was approved in both houses, it's pretty sound legally.

[Bryn]

Article 50 was approved in both houses, it's pretty sound legally.

The Article 50 approvals were post-referendum. It's the referendum result itself which was legally non-binding. Regardless of politicians' waffle, any U.K. referendum is purely advisory. Until recently, referendums in the U.K. were considered unconstitutional. The decision to approve Article 50 was entirely the responsibility of the MPs and Lords. The U.K. electorate had no enforceable say in the matter.