Stormy Weather

[eighthobstruction]

Hope they don't disturb the eels....

[DracoM]

Fantastic mid-winter / early spring day in Ultima Thule. DRY!!!!!

[BBMmk2]

Thank you DracoM for that post. So the farmers, themselves are totally responsible for the current disastrous situation we have at present. Now of course, the flooding is affecting by the Rivers Thames Severn and wasn't there another one?

[eighthobstruction]

Yep a glorious day in South Craven....but everybody I met on walks says - make the most of it....

[Anna]

So the farmers, themselves are totally responsible for the current disastrous situation we have at present. Now of course, the flooding is affecting by the Rivers Thames Severn and wasn't there another one?

No BBM, it's not that simple to blame the farmers for all the flooding we have. The Levels, being a reclaimed coastal plain and wetlands, are completely different case from the flooding of land now being experienced elsewhere. Of course the 'wrong' kind of farming (arable instead of grassland) has an effect whereever it's carried out, more so on The Levels but I think it's still the case that 70% is still grassland (for rearing beef). As to the flooding in general, there are many reasons, building on flood plains, over-development generally, deforestation, straightening rivers and streams, bad land management, failure to maintain culverts and ditches, etc., etc., far too many to discuss on this thread leaving aside the vexed question of climate change!

But the main course is the exceptional rainfall the UK has experienced/is going to experience still. (And I can't see what is gained by the current name-calling and blame game going on between the various Agencies and politicians)

Ontopic: A nice, mainly sunny day, dry.

[Richard Tarleton]

So the farmers, themselves are totally responsible for the current disastrous situation we have at present. Now of course, the flooding is affecting by the Rivers Thames Severn and wasn't there another one?

I did say "in part", BBM! It's a whole set of problems, which have come together under the current conditions. But yes, land use has a lot to do with it. I worked with an analagous set of issues for the last 20 years of my career. And I worked with flooding experts in the Welsh EA (now called something else) for whose expertise I have the highest respect.

Yet another relevant issue is planning, where houses are allowed to be built, and the building regs that are applied. The key for the future, given that we can expect more of this, is resilience. Adapt and survive. Easy to say, and tragic for those currently being affected.

Money is another. There will never be enough to protect everybody. Chris Smith explained the "Treasury Rules" under which the EA operates very well on "Today" this morning.

[jayne lee wilson]

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/09/leader-climate-change-weather-olympian-extremes

[aka Calum Da Jazbo]

we are not, as far as i know, affected by flooding in the middle kingdom [Rutland] .... so one is less inclined to be angered by the decisions or delivery of the Environment Agency which appears to this observer to be a coldly rational allocation of decreasing resources to a growing and complex set of problems ... watching the Energy & Climate Change Cttee this morning questioning the remarkable Dr. Emily Shuckburgh of the Royal Meteorological Society & Cambridge University it was clear that Peter Lilley MP is sceptic on the evidence and critical ... he and his chums are in favour of a smaller state and a richer financial sector ... there is a very serious political impact coming from our present extremely inclement climate and it will not simply be of the Pickles name calling kind ...

i trust any members at risk from the flooding are as safe and secure as circumstances permit ...

[Richard Tarleton]

Wales forumites may like to look at "Week In Week Out" at 10.35 tonight - anyone with Sky can find BBC 1 Wales somewhere in the 960s. I talked about Shoreline Management Plans a few months ago on this thread (can't find the post) - local authorities coming up with plans for the coast over the next 100 years, with advance/hold/retreat/no action for every section of coast. These plans have been carefully worked through with the nation's leading experts, all stakeholders inc. NGOs have been closely involved, there has been a public consultation process, it's got to the stage where it needs to be signed off by the Welsh government. The Wales Environment Minister (or Natural Resources, I think he's called), says "managed retreat" is not Welsh govt. policy and that there is a difference of opinion between it and the local authorities.

Here you have it in a nutshell - carefully worked policies, backed by the science, for the next 100 years, against politicians unable to think further than the next election (5 years or less). This is why no proper decisions will ever be taken.

[Anna]

Money is another. There will never be enough to protect everybody. Chris Smith explained the "Treasury Rules" under which the EA operates very well on "Today" this morning.

There was a very clear explanation on the order of priority re flood defences on the BBC site but I cannot find it now. As to the EA, their hands are tied by the above and the overriding deciding factor laid down by The Treasury is that each £1 spent should prevent £8 in damage. Hence farmland is bottom of the list when it comes to protection. (I recalled this morning the dreadful floods in Hull, 2007, the 'forgotten city' as it was called when their plight was totally ignored until - from memory - an Archbishop went there and got some Government action?) But that's going way off topic.

Here, our Leisure Centre is closing due to rising flood waters, it's likely the comprehensive next door may close tomorrow. I'm told that the primary access road to here is now blocked by floods, and they are pumping water from a sluice onto watermeadows, the park is underwater and is home to some happy ducks. Levels peaked at 5 metres but defended areas have no warnings at the moment, undefended are on alert (Luckily I live on a hill) However, we are pretty used to floods, so no-one panics about it except, I think it was 2003, when we had the BBC, Sky, etc., with their vans anticipating a major disaster - they caused an awful lot of nuisance and taking up the few dry parking areas and went away disappointed!

This morning the furthest Black Mountains/beginning of The Beacons had white tops, we are promised snow possibly here at lower levels. It was such a perfect day yesterday, not the slightest hint of dusk until 5.40pm and it's been perfectly bright, sunny and dry today. Unfortunately the torrential rain overnight, plus when it comes down from the hills, has caused today's problems

Edit: Oops, sorry Richard, crossposted with you, I had heard a trail for that programme. Will watch.

[BBMmk2]

Soounds good that programme, But there is still the suffering by the affected people. I fear this is going to be rather long and drawn out. (to say the least!)

[Petrushka]

There's nothing like a crisis on London's doorstep to get the meejah interested!

[Petrushka]

As to the flooding in general, there are many reasons, building on flood plains, over-development generally, deforestation, straightening rivers and streams, bad land management, failure to maintain culverts and ditches, etc., etc., far too many to discuss on this thread leaving aside the vexed question of climate change!

Anna has nailed it here I think. So many of the skills of land management have been sacrificed to greed and meddling over many years. As a climate change agnostic I feel it's a red herring in this particular case. Certainly we've had exceptional rainfall but, as the Met Office said in the link put up by Anna upthread, not unprecedented. We need to look much closer to home for the root causes of this disaster and to have a complete change of attitude from all sides of the political spectrum.

[MrGongGong]

As a climate change agnostic I feel it's a red herring in this particular case.

But as you said before

Yes it is. I find it meaningless waffle basically saying that they haven't got a clue.

and suggested that because YOU don't understand something it's obvious "meaningless" ?

Doesn't really inspire much confidence in your judgement IMV

[Petrushka]

But as you said before



and suggested that because YOU don't understand something it's obvious "meaningless" ?

Doesn't really inspire much confidence in your judgement IMV

Your ability to misread messages doesn't inspire much confidence either. The 'meaningless waffle' comment was in respect of this:

"The attribution of these changes to anthropogenic [caused by humans] global warming requires climate models of sufficient resolution to capture storms and their associated rainfall".

It took David-G several paragraphs to come anywhere near explaining what this meant. It seemed, and still seems, typical bureaucratic gobbledygook.

As far as climate change is concerned I am an agnostic: I simply don't know.

Confrontational messages don't help anyone's cause.