Stormy Weather

[Serial_Apologist]

It seems I got my prediction for snow in this part of the world right - about 1 cm of slushy stuff, still falling, less heavily than earlier, and at just under 2 C being honeycombed by melting from overhanging trees.

The official forecasts aren't quite so pessimistic re Monday onwards as they were a couple of days ago, but temperatures look set to remain far, far below what they would even be for January, until Friday. All this must be playing havoc with growth cycles: the crocuses are still going, daffs struggling to come to full bloom, kerria japonica just about emerging in protected spots, no sign here yet of the yellow forsythia; and any bugs that decided the 6th was the time to emerge and frolic would have been well and truly clobbered, depriving birds and other species further up the food chain from much-needed food energy for their breeding and nesting seasons later on. Farmers will dopubtless be worrying too.

[EdgeleyRob]

Just back from dog walk....because it isn't freezing....a trudge through 6" of mud porridge + 8" of snow/slush....

....on the + side went to a birthday party last night....and they were serving hot Stanforths Pork Pies for buffet....pocketed a couple on way out too....

Doggie bag 8o?

Still no snow here!

[alycidon]

Now here's a funny thing. Here am I in the far North of Scotland and we have had barely three/four inches of the white stuff since the beginning of winter. All the stores have oodles of snow-shovels and plastic toboggans which have remained since October, or thereabouts. As for me, I got my snow-shovel off the shelf in November, and have yet to use it.

I make this point, just in case those of you South of me, think that because North Scotland is always under snow, it is never worth reporting. Not so!

[JFLL]

Now here's a funny thing. Here am I in the far North of Scotland and we have had barely three/four inches of the white stuff since the beginning of winter.

The Scottish snow's evidently waiting for my visit to Glasgow at the beginning of April.....

[Nick Armstrong]

Now here's a funny thing.

It's the way you tell 'em, Al !!

[amateur51]

Just back from dog walk....because it isn't freezing....a trudge through 6" of mud porridge + 8" of snow/slush....

....on the + side went to a birthday party last night....and they were serving hot Stanforths Pork Pies for buffet....pocketed a couple on way out too....

Woo-hoo 8tho - way to go (via cardiac A&E no doubt I know, but ...)

[Eine Alpensinfonie]

It's puzzling really. They did forecast snow here, but there hasn't been even a hint of it. Yet further west, the north of England appears to be almost closed for business - schools, roads etc. closed.

[Serial_Apologist]

Now here's a funny thing. Here am I in the far North of Scotland and we have had barely three/four inches of the white stuff since the beginning of winter. All the stores have oodles of snow-shovels and plastic toboggans which have remained since October, or thereabouts. As for me, I got my snow-shovel off the shelf in November, and have yet to use it.

I make this point, just in case those of you South of me, think that because North Scotland is always under snow, it is never worth reporting. Not so!

That's because, due to the southward migration of the jet stream, the snow that you should normally be getting, (sorry!), is falling further south. Right here, right now, as happens.

[Serial_Apologist]

It's puzzling really. They did forecast snow here, but there hasn't been even a hint of it. Yet further west, the north of England appears to be almost closed for business - schools, roads etc. closed.

The frontal system bringing all this snow has aligned itself NW-SE from Lancashire across the Midlands to Kent, without moving further north. Hence you are in what is called the "shadow" - namely, the zone between the precipitation belt and the more showery airstream to the north of you, EA.

[BBMmk2]

We hada flurry of the white stuff today. Thereexpected more later next week. Just have to wait and se?

[mangerton]

Now here's a funny thing. Here am I in the far North of Scotland and we have had barely three/four inches of the white stuff since the beginning of winter. All the stores have oodles of snow-shovels and plastic toboggans which have remained since October, or thereabouts. As for me, I got my snow-shovel off the shelf in November, and have yet to use it.

I make this point, just in case those of you South of me, think that because North Scotland is always under snow, it is never worth reporting. Not so!

Indeed. There's not been much here either, but then we're both on or near the coast, which has a lot to do with it, I think. There's a lot of snow between us!

That's because, due to the southward migration of the jet stream, the snow that you should normally be getting, (sorry!), is falling further south. Right here, right now, as happens.

I note your comments on the jet stream, S_A, but is altitude not a factor too?

Weather here today is again very cold, strong winds, which make it colder, and occasional snow flurries.

[Anna]

Woke up to lying snow this morning and small flakes continuing for an hour or so. However it only amounted to 2cm so no disruption on roads, then flakes turned to drizzle and it's now disappeared except on the hills. Weather station reports 1.9 but with windchill it's -2.5. Met Office says maybe some more light snow here overnight but Monday promising to be nice sunny day (but remaining cold for rest of the week) Cooking a real Winter-warmer - a rich beef casserole, certainly not the weather for light, delicate, meals!

[Serial_Apologist]

I note your comments on the jet stream, S_A, but is altitude not a factor too?

Under most conditions, temperatures drop about 1 degree Fahrenheit for every 300 feet in height (whatever those are in metrics). Again, under "most" conditions, snow starts appearing in rain at + 4 degrees C. + 2 C would produce a 50/50 snow/rain mixture, i.e. sleet; and + 1 C large, fast falling wet snow flakes. So one can work out susceptibility to snow relative to altitude at any given time on that basis - but with the proviso that it is an oversimplified model that leaves out eg that snow falling through temperatures above freezing can melt into rain before it reaches lower down temperatures which are below freezing, thus giving rise to the terrible phenomenon of "black ice" or "glazed frost", more common in the States; or with given distance it can re-freeze into "soft hail". In addition, snow melts rapidly when passing through air of high humidity.

Yet another factor to be taken into account is the "dry area" to the leeward side of high ground, where upward-thrust air hitting the windward side of a hill or mountain mass boosts the rate of precipitation generation on that side, and then reduces it beyond.

Another interesting aspect of snow or rain depending on temperature and humidity is capacity to settle. Looking out, right now, at snow falling quite heavily, the temperature of + 1 degree celsius is insufficient for it to settle on wet road surfaces near to buildings, which are heat-emitting, and where traffic flow maintains enough warmth from car engines; but it is enough for the rate of settlement to outweigh the rate of melt at + 1 C for the snow to be settling on rooftops and grassed areas. Another half a degree lower, with the present intensity of snowfall, and we would probably be seeing a centimeter of wet snow building up on all horizontal and sloping surfaces every hour.

[Angle]

Greetings Anna, eighthobstruction and everyone. Snow not falling in Liverpool now. Pavements very wet but walkable without slipping but very uninviting nevertheless. Went to the cafe at Otterspool which, on a fine, sunny day, affords views across the river and away in the distance, the North Welsh hills - but not today because of the low and heavy clouds.

Doesn't Liverpool beckon any more, Anna ?

[Anna]

Doesn't Liverpool beckon any more, Anna ?

Angle, I only landed up in Liverpool because I was visiting family who live North of Manchester. They had a guided tour to Anfield booked (they are staunch Liverpool supporters) and a trip on the Duckie for the children so I went along (not for the booked events) and we had a visit to the underground Western Front HQ, they went on the Duckie, I explored the Docks, then an early lunch at a restaurant owned by some Liverpool player (not far from The Cavern) and then I was blissfully left on my own until around 6pm to explore. I hope, when I visit them again this year, we might go to Liverpool again. Of course when I was there it was very warm and sunny and it was looking its best ...... P.S. have you thought about joining in again on the AA thread?

S_A, thank you very much for that detailed explanation. Have you thought of doing a Brummie Simon and setting up your own weather channel or even writing a weather blog?