The Virus and MUSIC

[MrGongGong]

https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2020/may/25/southbank-centre-warns-it-may-have-to-stay-closed-until-spring-2021?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other&fbclid=IwAR1ym60DJWpskwQ2JQIx0vS109fBblGOJsGC_2FdaGF550vi6hxDysdWOlw

[Nevilevelis]

Bleak.

This is OK:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CAXQ2Y_hyIo/?utm_source=ig_web_button_share_sheet

But this isn't...

https://www.instagram.com/p/CAXQhsohoJp/?utm_source=ig_web_button_share_sheet

It's a complex problem but...

NVV

[teamsaint]

just to repeat a quetion from the other day, if the incidence of infections is very low,say a few hundre cases in the country , the R rate very low,and we have things like good contact tracing in place, why would we need social distancing in places like concert halls ?
I appreciate that in terms of outting events on. There is a lot more complexity than just social distancing.

[Bryn]

just to repeat a quetion from the other day, if the incidence of infections is very low,say a few hundre cases in the country , the R rate very low,and we have things like good contact tracing in place, why would we need social distancing in places like concert halls ?
I appreciate that in terms of outting events on. There is a lot more complexity than just social distancing.

Interesting report from Japan on BBC News. Possible reasons for the very low impact of COVID-19 in that country suggested were the tradition of high hygene, bowing rather than hand-shaking, and the wearing of face-masks if one has the sniffles. Their society already had the essential of prevention in place before the outbreak.

[Nevilevelis]

Interesting report from Japan on BBC News. Possible reasons for the very low impact of COVID-19 in that country suggested were the tradition of high hygene, bowing rather than hand-shaking, and the wearing of face-masks if one has the sniffles. Their society already had the essential of prevention in place before the outbreak.

Yes, and an ingrained sense of social responsibility - actually embedded in the culture. The same in South Korea.

[Dave2002]

just to repeat a question from the other day, if the incidence of infections is very low, say a few hundred cases in the country, R very low, and we have things like good contact tracing in place, why would we need social distancing in places like concert halls ?
I appreciate that in terms of putting events on there is a lot more complexity than just social distancing.

Just wind back 5 or 6 months. There were assumed to be 0= NO=BIG FAT ZERO cases in the UK at that time.
Once things started to roll, the cases and deaths mounted up. What has changed since then?

Apart from the fact that some people seem to think that 100+ is the NEW ZERO.

[oddoneout]

Just wind back 5 or 6 months. There were assumed to be 0= NO=BIG FAT ZERO cases in the UK at that time.
Once things started to roll, the cases and deaths mounted up. What has changed since then?

Apart from the fact that some people seem to think that 100+ is the NEW ZERO.

If you start looking for something you increase the chances of finding it? Didn't it take a while before all the 'odd' symptoms of AIDS got put together and someone made the connection? A GP friend suggested many years ago when we were discussing the apparent high incidence of asthma in this part of the world that she thought it was more about better/different diagnoses compared with other areas at that time, based on her experience in different parts of the country. How many cases of Covid19 might have already been in the system but were written down as something else - and possibly still are being I gather in some circumstances.

[teamsaint]

Just wind back 5 or 6 months. There were assumed to be 0= NO=BIG FAT ZERO cases in the UK at that time.
Once things started to roll, the cases and deaths mounted up. What has changed since then?

Apart from the fact that some people seem to think that 100+ is the NEW ZERO.

If there are 100 cases of something dangerous and infectious in a population , and some or many of those people have been traced and are in isolation, then I’m not all that worried about it, at a personal level.
Of course we need to keep a very close eye on levels and react very quickly ,which is the whole point of the best possible contact tracing.

What has changed is that we may well have to live with low levels of this virus, and balance risk.

[Dave2002]

If you start looking for something you increase the chances of finding it? Didn't it take a while before all the 'odd' symptoms of AIDS got put together and someone made the connection? A GP friend suggested many years ago when we were discussing the apparent high incidence of asthma in this part of the world that she thought it was more about better/different diagnoses compared with other areas at that time, based on her experience in different parts of the country. How many cases of Covid19 might have already been in the system but were written down as something else - and possibly still are being I gather in some circumstances.

You are partly right. With a very mild disease which did hardly anything, and nobody died, perhaps we could just ignore it. That's what we do with colds, and even "regular" flu, even though that can be nasty, and even fatal. I don't think we are putting CV-19 in that category.

At the moment it seems best to treat it really seriously, and get the number of infections down.

If it were only a mild disease which affects some children, then it might be OK to let it run - but that approach would appear to have severe consequences in other ways.

I think your first line "If you start looking for something you increase the chances of finding it?" may have other applications too - though sometimes it leads to spurious or erroneus conclusions.

[MrGongGong]

If there are 100 cases of something dangerous and infectious in a population , and some or many of those people have been traced and are in isolation, then I’m not all that worried about it, at a personal level.
Of course we need to keep a very close eye on levels and react very quickly ,which is the whole point of the best possible contact tracing.

What has changed is that we may well have to live with low levels of this virus, and balance risk.

Is the "best possible contact tracing" the one where we give mr Cumming's mates our data and they get rich sellling it ?

If that is the case then NO WAY

[Dave2002]

If there are 100 cases of something dangerous and infectious in a population , and some or many of those people have been traced and are in isolation, then I’m not all that worried about it, at a personal level.
Of course we need to keep a very close eye on levels and react very quickly ,which is the whole point of the best possible contact tracing.

What has changed is that we may well have to live with low levels of this virus, and balance risk.

Indeed that would just about be manageable. At present there are considerably more than 100 cases in the UK. Also you appear to be assuming that testing works well enough, and that contact tracing would identify and isolate people who have the disease quickly enough. That raises other issues, which we will perhaps discover in time.

[teamsaint]

Indeed that would just about be manageable. At present there are considerably more than 100 cases in the UK. Also you appear to be assuming that testing works well enough, and that contact tracing would identify and isolate people who have the disease quickly enough. That raises other issues, which we will perhaps discover in time.

Yes, my posts were based on some assumptions.it probably is reasonable to assume that testing error rates will improve, and we could have “ world leading “ contact tracing system, but I’m not holding my breath in the latter.
But the point remains, it could be possible to reopen arts venues with workable capacities without a vaccine being available.
Quite why contact tracing hasn’t had the serious money , time and effort thrown at it as a highest priority is a mystery, when it has been clear from the beginning that it is the basis of a return to functionality for significant parts of our lives.

[jayne lee wilson]

Excellent coolly ruthless statistical analysis here.....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000j949

[Count Boso]

If there are 100 cases of something dangerous and infectious in a population , and some or many of those people have been traced and are in isolation, then I’m not all that worried about it, at a personal level.

100 cases reported. We don't know how many cases there are, particularly of those showing no symptoms at all at the present moment.

[MrGongGong]

Yes, my posts were based on some assumptions.it probably is reasonable to assume that testing error rates will improve, and we could have “ world leading “ contact tracing system, but I’m not holding my breath in the latter.
But the point remains, it could be possible to reopen arts venues with workable capacities without a vaccine being available.
Quite why contact tracing hasn’t had the serious money , time and effort thrown at it as a highest priority is a mystery, when it has been clear from the beginning that it is the basis of a return to functionality for significant parts of our lives.

Lots of things are "possible"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dd1y-DDpASk&frags=pl%2Cwn