Have You Started Attending Concerts?

[Bryn]

Virtually all regions of England, and Wales, have now passed the 400 new cases per 100k population.

In my local Unitary Authority:

75 new people had a confirmed positive test result reported on 17 October 2021.

Between 11 October 2021 and 17 October 2021, 577 people had a confirmed positive test result. This shows an increase of 40.0% compared to the previous 7 days.

and there were 2 deaths from COVID-19 in the same period.

[hmvman]

The British Music Society York chamber music concert series has resumed at the Sir Jack Lyons Hall at York University. I missed the first one earlier this month but have bought a season ticket for the rest of the series of 6. I do feel it's right to go and support these fine concerts. They have made some changes to normal arrangements by limiting the audience numbers and admission is for season ticket holders only - no tickets available at the door - and the concerts will be up to 75 minutes long with no interval. A friend of mine attended the first one and said it was very well attended and that few audience members wore masks, which is interesting because the audience for these concerts is generally in the 60+ age group with many 70+.

[Barbirollians]

Virtually all regions of England, and Wales, have now passed the 400 new cases per 100k population.

Also I really do not agree with those who think vaccine hesitancy cannot be addressed by measures such as vaccine passports. I disagree France , a country which polls and history suggests was far more vaccine hesitant now has a higher rate of vaccination than the UK 1,100 cases a day compared to 45,000 .

Sadly, young people are more likely to be exposed to false information on social media leading to hesitancy. Not being able to go to a bar , restaurant or club would be likely to persuade them that the consequences of being unvaccinated do not justify their hesitancy.

As far as I am concerned this would be a secondary benefit to protect the rest of us particularly the most vulnerable in society.

[Cockney Sparrow]

Also I really do not agree with those who think vaccine hesitancy cannot be addressed by measures such as vaccine passports. I disagree France , a country which polls and history suggests was far more vaccine hesitant now has a higher rate of vaccination than the UK 1,100 cases a day compared to 45,000 .

Sadly, young people are more likely to be exposed to false information on social media leading to hesitancy. Not being able to go to a bar , restaurant or club would be likely to persuade them that the consequences of being unvaccinated do not justify their hesitancy.

As far as I am concerned this would be a secondary benefit to protect the rest of us particularly the most vulnerable in society.

My impression is that the French people are not notably accepting of restraint and requirement to conform? Happy to be corrected - my impression is not from close acquaintance or much time in the country. The social scientists say the compliance with lockdown here was higher than it might have been. If we had vaccine passports, on the basis you suggest - want to get in, need to comply - then I agree they are a reasonable balance between freedom and responsibility to others. It would be good if the legislation had sunset clauses - say 3 months initially to allow proper democratic scrutiny (which has been so lacking) and then say one year at a time.

If you're bothered by big brother - just wait until you need another box of lateral flow tests (as I found on Friday). In fact, make sure your mobile has a good signal and you have 10 minutes to spare - big brother will know exactly who you are, which box of tests you are given and no doubt in time, when they go for it, the result of each of them......... (laughably, at the moment, at the end the pharmacist writes down the bar code from the box on a paper chart - speaking as an ex civil servant its typical government software/process (its a beta, see - excuses anything, usually for months and months).

[cloughie]

Virtually all regions of England, and Wales, have now passed the 400 new cases per 100k population.

And in Cornwall over 500!

I know we are relying on vaccinations, and there are some who stubbornly spurn them, there does appear to be an invreasing number of hospitalisations of people who have been doubly jabbed. There seems slow progress with boosters - its six months this week since my 2nd jab and despite having my flu jab last week - no indication of when and where I’ll receive the booster. The mass centre which did a fantastic job was closed recently just at the time that large numbers would be due their booster. Very strange. Meanwhile I cautiously get on with life whilst many people around seem to think Covid doesn’t exist anymore.

[Cockney Sparrow]

And in Cornwall over 500!

I know we are relying on vaccinations, and there are some who stubbornly spurn them, there does appear to be an invreasing number of hospitalisations of people who have been doubly jabbed. There seems slow progress with boosters - its six months this week since my 2nd jab and despite having my flu jab last week - no indication of when and where I’ll receive the booster. The mass centre which did a fantastic job was closed recently just at the time that large numbers would be due their booster. Very strange.

Flu Jab, and booster - same here. It really is the case that as long as people aren't expiring on pavements outside hospital (as opposed to inside parked ambulances) - because the aim is to win the race to vaccinate and get, eventually herd immunity - at least up to and including the Delta variant. MD in Private Eye predicted this was the strategy in August. We've got to realise the question is "if not now, when do we come out of lock down" - admittedly, we just cannot continue locking down. The problem is that the ultimate decision maker, to keep part of his constituency (and future sources of ££££) happy has to be seen to only take actions like passports, lockdowns, any restriction most reluectantly - when he is absolutely forced to. Which means too little, too late, and grossly high death rates.

Meanwhile I cautiously get on with life whilst many people around seem to think Covid doesn’t exist anymore.

There was an excellent article by Matthew Paris in The Times last Friday - enumerating most (no space for all) of this government's failures - if not in averting the virus but in leadership and responsible government in the face of it. I'm holding onto the premise of the article that he feels the "believers" in the voting public are near to joining the dots together and realising what a sham collection of politicians we have voted in to power. But that's for the future. Prof Winston on Question Time set out that this virus is unusual in that it damages, or can damage, most of the principal organs of the government. The impact of long covid could be very severe and no predicing who gets that - but then, I would just join a long waiting list for treatment if I ended up with long covid..........

To pick up on your point, the one relaxation I have allowed myself is attending cool/cold, draughty rehearsals amongst Lat. flow tested choir colleagues, Co2 monitored, and then rehearsing and performing on Saturday. In retrospect, I hope I didn't go too far - great space in a cathedral but a lot of expired air as well (although we singers were distanced like a chequer board). Ah well, I'd better take a Lat flow test now.......

p.s - Government messaging seems to be that whatever is going wrong, its someone else's fault. I presume our GPs, after being told by the Health Minister he thinks they have their feet up on the desk for a lot of the time, are doing the responsible thing and backing the booster programme, when they get the vaccines, like they were largely responsible for delivering the first (anyone see a government minister volunteering in a vaccination centre? I think the discontent about the new Health Minister's approach is such that we could eventually lose GPs to other medical roles and to other countries. The GP I went to for continuity issues, I found had left the practice in May last year and is now working for BUPA. He'd told me how dissatisfied he was with the demands and strictures on his ability to deliver care (by the Clinical Commissioning Group) before the Pandemic. Seems he made his decision before, and worked his notice as it set in. One very good GP lost to the NHS.

[teamsaint]

Also I really do not agree with those who think vaccine hesitancy cannot be addressed by measures such as vaccine passports. I disagree France , a country which polls and history suggests was far more vaccine hesitant now has a higher rate of vaccination than the UK 1,100 cases a day compared to 45,000 .

Sadly, young people are more likely to be exposed to false information on social media leading to hesitancy. Not being able to go to a bar , restaurant or club would be likely to persuade them that the consequences of being unvaccinated do not justify their hesitancy.

As far as I am concerned this would be a secondary benefit to protect the rest of us particularly the most vulnerable in society.

All the surveys suggest that passports are likely to make the hesitant more resistant.
And there are good reasons for this, since there is no evidence of any public health benefit whatsoever, as two parliamentary committees reported.

The passports are a placebo, to make some people feel safer , and they won't be safer because " double jab only" passports will obviously be likely to increase spread given the level of infections among the vaccinated. . And the long term damage that VPs will do in terms of the relationship between the state and the individual is incalculable, and open ended.
I'd suggest the govt focus on public health measures that are actually proven to work, not useless and dangerous social control measures.

[french frank]

Also I really do not agree with those who think vaccine hesitancy cannot be addressed by measures such as vaccine passports. I disagree France , a country which polls and history suggests was far more vaccine hesitant now has a higher rate of vaccination than the UK 1,100 cases a day compared to 45,000 .

There is a balance required and when neither side can understand or accept (or even listen to) the arguments of the other side trouble occurs. The fears of the vaccine hesitant have to be listened to - and allayed.

My impression is that the French people are not notably accepting of restraint and requirement to conform? Happy to be corrected

Here's the full story: It's interesting that from this story (if accurate) the downside of the imposition of passports in France is that it will cause mass protests. The reasoning of the protesters is that their freedoms are being infringed (“We are not necessarily against vaccinations, but against the obligation to get jabbed”). The French have identity cards anyway so may be less sensitive to the idea of Big Brtother knowing all about us. My view would be that the government knows pretty much all it wants to know about us already.

The overriding message of this story is that if people, especially the young, want to regain their freedoms, they will get vaccinated. With vaccination now available, free in the UK, to anyone over 16 it really is a matter of choice: you aren't forced to be vaccinated.

I would be very surprised, given the way the infection is spreading, if restrictions of some sort weren't in troduced pretty soon - at least on public transport, for goodness sake.

[french frank]

All the surveys suggest that passports are likely to make the hesitant more resistant.

But not in France!

[Barbirollians]

All the surveys suggest that passports are likely to make the hesitant more resistant.
And there are good reasons for this, since there is no evidence of any public health benefit whatsoever, as two parliamentary committees reported.

The passports are a placebo, to make some people feel safer , and they won't be safer because " double jab only" passports will obviously be likely to increase spread given the level of infections among the vaccinated. . And the long term damage that VPs will do in terms of the relationship between the state and the individual is incalculable, and open ended.
I'd suggest the govt focus on public health measures that are actually proven to work, not useless and dangerous social control measures.

Can you explain the far lower covid rates in France ? Where the two differences are vaccine passports in indoor areas such as bars and restaurants and continued mask wearing ? If not due to those measures ?

[teamsaint]

But not in France!

Not sure about France but it might be a fair supposition that the " soft hesitant" were persuaded by passports , but the hardcore will not be. And that hardcore might equate with the UK , where take up in older groups has been very high, but where a sizeable hardcore of hesitant people remains, and not just in very young groups.

I think it is very unwise ( not suggesting you are ) to look at two variables and draw a conclusion where there are so many variables and unknowns.

On top of that, covid infections are not the only important matter at hand.

[teamsaint]

Can you explain the far lower covid rates in France ? Where the two differences are vaccine passports in indoor areas such as bars and restaurants and continued mask wearing ? If not due to those measures ?

There are a large number of variables. Numbers of tests taken just for one, and how deaths in hospital are classified. We have enormous numbers among school pupils, which may well not turn into serious secondary attack numbers in older groups post vaccination.
I really don't think you can take two elements in a highly complex situation and show a definite or even probable causality. There is no evidence at all that vaccine passports will work, and " double vax only" as in Scotland, will actually tend to make things worse, as there is no check on infection status.

[Cockney Sparrow]

I think the virologists acknowledge there is a whole series of contributory factors nudging the R number above or below 1 - and they can't be definite but are not advising drop all precautions. But they also say its a political decision to just loosen all restrictions in the hope that the R rate will subside below 1 - hence they have said (I think - given up on the detail lately, I admit) to the government what they think and its up to Politicians to decide.

Assuming my impression is correct - Ministers, and the Prime M among them, shouldn't be able to wrap the "following science" shield around themselves, although I can predict they will find others to blame, which is the mode that have been in, in all respects and directions, for months now.

[french frank]

Can you explain the far lower covid rates in France ? Where the two differences are vaccine passports in indoor areas such as bars and restaurants and continued mask wearing ? If not due to those measures ?

Team is correct in saying you can't take the two variables as directly explaining the lower covid rates. You can - I would suggest - say that vaccine passports explained the subsequent large increase in vaccination uptake; and from there you might posit that the increase in vaccination rates contributed to decreased rates of infection.

[teamsaint]

Team is correct in saying you can't take the two variables as directly explaining the lower covid rates. You can - I would suggest - say that vaccine passports explained the subsequent large increase in vaccination uptake; and from there you might posit that the increase in vaccination rates contributed to decreased rates of infection.

The problem is that the ONS figures show starkly that vaccination really doesn't reduce the numbers getting infected much if at all, compared to the unvaccinated group.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1025358/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-41.pdf

See table 2 , last two columns.


Our very high numbers of infections currently are enormously skewed towards students in years 7-11. See figure 4.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/15october2021

How that plays out is anybody's guess. Or a modeller's guess. One would hope that with high levels of vaccination in the vulnerable groups, this won't turn into a major increase in serious disease. The current stats would certainly tend to suggest that.