Ukraine

[french frank]

How about....3) Putin signs ceasefire - Putin breaks ceasefire....

He seems to have said that he's only interested in an 'enduring' peace. An end to the war (on his 'agreed' terms). Will Trump realise that it means he's making no concessions? Will he care? Putin still says there needs to be an agreement on 'land' but the only just solution is that the Russians leave Ukraine - and pay restitution for damage caused. What does Trump do then?

[Historian]

Although Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman's Ukraine survey of 2024 is now somewhat outdated, I think it's worth posting it as much of what he writes is still relevant.

I haven't been contributing much to this thread recently because of a return to full-time work (more or less). However, I feel it's time to re-animate the discussion (if people want to).

[Historian]

Prof. Freedman also surveyed the options for a multi-national force in the event of a ceasefire in 'How can Ukraine's security be guaranteed?'. The article dates from the end of January but is still relevant. It is free-to-read as is the article in the previous post.

[Petrushka]

The Orange One in the White House seems to have lost interest in Ukraine and all momentum towards a ceasefire seems to have stalled. Putin clearly wants to keep the war going, probably because its ending will highlight his failure and lead to his removal.

The rest of Europe, meanwhile, is hopefully, getting on with serious rearmament and defence capability while at the same time dealing with Trump's trade war.

It's all a bit of a mess!

[french frank]

Prof. Freedman also surveyed the options for a multi-national force in the event of a ceasefire in 'How can Ukraine's security be guaranteed?'. The article dates from the end of January but is still relevant. It is free-to-read as is the article in the previous post.

Last I read Putin seemed to think he had a veto on whether such a multi-national peace force would be allowed. Perhaps if Russian troops were invited to join it ... ?

Meanwhile the Orange One seems to have toned down his hair colour: presumably names like the Orange Man Baby are getting to him ...

[Historian]

The Orange One in the White House seems to have lost interest in Ukraine and all momentum towards a ceasefire seems to have stalled. Putin clearly wants to keep the war going, probably because its ending will highlight his failure and lead to his removal.

He's having fun with tariffs at the moment. No doubt he and his friends will return to the charge soon, continuing to put pressure on Ukraine, while soft-pedalling on Russia's continued atrocities. I agree that Putin wants to keep the war going as a clear failure would be a problem for him. Presumably he's hoping to get the best possible deal and justify the huge costs of the invasion.

[Historian]

Last I read Putin seemed to think he had a veto on whether such a multi-national peace force would be allowed.

As you perhaps implied, Russia should not get a veto on this. Putin's aim is to dominate and control Ukraine for many years after this conflict has ended. This would be much more difficult if Ukraine's security was properly defended. Ukraine has been given security 'guarantees' before (Budapest Memorandum) and wants something more concrete i.e. enough boots on the ground,