Ukraine

[Anastasius]

We're a medium power, small in size. There are other global concerns. I think Ukraine v Russia is existential, so is Israel v whoever is not unconditionally pro-Israel, so is climate change. If we had unlimited resources we could chuck as much as was needed wherever it was needed. For better ... or worse ..., we have to look over our shoulder at the US. Things have been bad over there: let's hope they will get better soon.

You miss the point, I suggest. We are already supplying the weapons...just that we've put limitations on their use. I think that the West has pussy-footed around from the beginning. Utterly naive to think that a 'light touch' approach would be enough to help Ukraine regain their lost territory and convince Russia to back off. Two reasons...Russia has a self-appointed dictator in charge and the Russian psyche is just to glower down and open the vodka. After all, cannon fodder worked in WWII and all their preceding wars. Finesse and nuance was never a strong suit in Russia.

[french frank]

You miss the point, I suggest. We are already supplying the weapons...just that we've put limitations on their use.

Why do you think "we" are doing that?

[duncan]

Why do you think "we" are doing that?

Cynical / realpolitik explanations revolve around slowly 'attriting Russian military capacity' (a euphemism if ever I heard one). More likely seems to be concern about crossing Russian so-called red lines. In practice Ukraine taking the war further into Russia has not triggered any response beyond huffing and puffing.

[Anastasius]

Why do you think "we" are doing that?

As Duncan says, fear of escalation. Try telling that to Ukrainians who see escalation each day. My explanation is simpler. LoC by the West. Lack of Cojones.

If you look back at the very beginning, we and our allies response was very tepid and timorous. Lack of enough weaponry and/or suitably advanced weaponry, specifically. Gradually ( and begrudgingly) the shackles have been released. So why didn't they do it in the first place? Had they done so then I think Ukraine would now be in a far better place. We just failed to get off the pot. And still remain stuck

[eighthobstruction]

....I in no way disagree but when it comes to big ordnance is a good thing to have up your sleeve....but it is feet on the ground that wins wars and feet on the ground these days means a lot of training before troops are effective....see how the Russians are doing with vast amounts of poorly (if at all) trained troops....

Drones are being manufactured in Ukraine and designed for the occasion....(must be some place for dumby/dummy? drones - cheaper to make and employed to test Russian air defense/overwhelm that defense)....anyway a race is on in drone design and capabilities....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXE2Pg9CSSA&t=1125s

[vinteuil]

... it is feet on the ground that wins wars ...

... when Emperor Hirohito realized that - "the war situation has developed not necessarily to Japan's advantage" he was not responding to "feet on the ground"

edit : I am not proposing that 'we' should drop H-bombs on Moscow



.

[eighthobstruction]

....indeed, though it was the idea that Allies would loose 500, 000 ++ feet on the ground taking the Japanese mainland/home island that made Rooseveldt drop them....but you know that, I know....

[french frank]

More likely seems to be concern about crossing Russian so-called red lines. In practice Ukraine taking the war further into Russia has not triggered any response beyond huffing and puffing.

And concern also over what 'red lines' Putin himself might cross? The difference between supplying defensive weapons and offensive weapons is already a matter of debate in respect to Israel where questions are asked regarding whether the use to which weapons will be put is in compliance with international humanitarian law.

[HighlandDougie]

....indeed, though it was the idea that Allies would loose 500, 000 ++ feet on the ground taking the Japanese mainland/home island that made Rooseveldt drop them....but you know that, I know....

Forgive my pedantry but it was Harry Truman who made the decision as FDR had popped his clogs earlier in 1945. But the reasoning for doing so was as eighth states.

[eighthobstruction]

Forgive my pedantry but it was Harry Truman who made the decision as FDR had popped his clogs earlier in 1945. But the reasoning for doing so was as eighth states.

....excused....with pleasure....as a serial mistake maker I morn the loss of Amateur 51 who used to PM me so that i could change the mistake before anyone (usually Simon Says) could notice....

[eighthobstruction]

Here's people fleeing, from a town Ukrainians though was safe from Russian incursion in the East....everyday people https://www.theguardian.com/world/ar...aders-close-in

[HighlandDougie]

The latest from Sir Lawrence:

https://open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/building-on-kursk?r=w1xt&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

[richardfinegold]

....indeed, though it was the idea that Allies would loose 500, 000 ++ feet on the ground taking the Japanese mainland/home island that made Rooseveldt drop them....but you know that, I know....

Roosevelt was dead; Truman had to make that call.
I just finished reading a book about the fire bombing of Tokyo and other Japanese cities that preceded the A bomb (Black Snow).It was horrific and hundreds of thousands of Japanese died horribly but there was no serious discussion in Japan about surrender despite the napalm and the starvation of the populace due to effective American submarine warfare that choked off their imports. The book argues that the A bomb gave Hirohito a politically expedient way to surrender (the enemy has a terrible new weapon that we cannot match).
So if there is a lesson here it is that heavy ordinance doesn’t make a determined country quit fighting unless Atomic weapons are involved. That’s a cheerful thought

[french frank]

The latest from Sir Lawrence:

Thank you.

[HighlandDougie]

Just appeared in my inbox:

https://samf.substack.com/p/whos-afraid-of-vladimir-putin?utm_campaign=email-post&r=w1xt&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email