Originally posted by french frank
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Ukraine
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Ukraine needs to keep hold of its rightful moral high ground. Making tens of thousands of ordinary people homeless and no doubt killing many can't be the way to win this war. All such actions will do is fire up the patriotism of the Russians so that they really side with Putin - rather than simple support him out of fear, as has been the case until now.
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Several ideas on this, trying to see the situation from Ukraine's point of view:
1. The publicity which this has received within in Russia sends a message to Russians that Putin is not winning his 'quick' war
2. The Ukrainian successes will divert Russian troops from elsewhere (no indication that mighty Russia has unlimited supplies of men and weapons)
3. Putin's public comments suggest the territorial gains will be used as bargaining chips: you give up control of our land and we'll give up control of yours.
4. Also, a story in this morning's Guardian - and even the Guardian could engage in 'western propaganda'! - is that the Ukrainian military success is welcomed by the inhabitants there - though their names sound more Ukrainian than Russian to me. Must reread it.
It isn't given us to know those rare moments when people are wide open and the lightest touch can wither or heal. A moment too late and we can never reach them any more in this world.
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Originally posted by french frank View PostSeveral ideas on this, trying to see the situation from Ukraine's point of view:
1. The publicity which this has received within in Russia sends a message to Russians that Putin is not winning his 'quick' war
2. The Ukrainian successes will divert Russian troops from elsewhere (no indication that mighty Russia has unlimited supplies of men and weapons)
3. Putin's public comments suggest the territorial gains will be used as bargaining chips: you give up control of our land and we'll give up control of yours.
4. Also, a story in this morning's Guardian - and even the Guardian could engage in 'western propaganda'! - is that the Ukrainian military success is welcomed by the inhabitants there - though their names sound more Ukrainian than Russian to me. Must reread it.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...d&utm_campaign
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Originally posted by oddoneout View PostWhere borders are, or have been historically, fluid then there will be blurring of the demarcation through names, language etc?It isn't given us to know those rare moments when people are wide open and the lightest touch can wither or heal. A moment too late and we can never reach them any more in this world.
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Originally posted by french frank View PostHave we heard yet what thoughts there are on Ukraine's incursion into Russia? I'm not sure that I understand why so much effort is being put into that - is it simply that the Russian defences inside Ukraine are proving just too hard to break down?
Ukraine may be planning a large offensive this year but this attack toward Kursk is not it. They can't afford another failure like last year when, as you mention, Russian defences proved too strong.
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Originally posted by Serial_Apologist View Post
What I understood from what I heard the Ukrainian military is supposed to have said about this, the occupation would be expected to draw scarce Russian personnel back across the border to deal with it, thereby taking some pressure off the Donbas. I have to say it does appear to be a bad mistake to think this way - the Russians will deal with the invaders, probably very harshly, and then it will be back to square one.
Russia is currently making heavy weather in tackling the Ukraine advance which has not attempted to go beyond the limits of Ukrainian artillery support. I imagine that Ukraine will have made very careful calculations about the benefits from attacking the Kursk region and will do their best to avoid the losses you fear.
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Originally posted by Bella Kemp View PostUkraine needs to keep hold of its rightful moral high ground. Making tens of thousands of ordinary people homeless and no doubt killing many can't be the way to win this war. All such actions will do is fire up the patriotism of the Russians so that they really side with Putin - rather than simple support him out of fear, as has been the case until now.
One side destroys cities, towns and villages by ruthlessly bombarding them into desolation, without regard to civilian casualties. Furthermore, this side has a long and hideous track record of using missiles and aerial bombing to attack non-military civilian targets (in this and other conflicts), including schools, hospitals and supermarkets which lie well beyond the immediate battle zone: this is Russia.
The other side avoids inflicting casualties on Russian civilians as much as possible, sends its long-range drones and missiles against military targets and does not routinely commit war crimes: this is Ukraine.
All the evidence I have seen so far from the attack on the Kursk region has shown Ukraine focusing on attacking Russian military forces and positions. Therefore there is no reason for Ukraine to run any risk of losing the "rightful moral high ground" which you rightly observe it currently holds.
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Originally posted by Historian View Post
Currently Ukraine's land forces are on the defensive, with this one recent exception. Last summer's major offensive was a failure, indeed Russia has recaptured much of the limited gains made then. Since then, Ukraine has concentrated on wearing down Russian forces with considerable success e.g. the heavy losses of Russian artillery pieces. Russia has still been able to advance in one or two areas but only relatively slowly and at considerable cost. The renewed incursion towards Kharkiv did not get very far and the Russians are slowly being expelled.
Ukraine may be planning a large offensive this year but this attack toward Kursk is not it. They can't afford another failure like last year when, as you mention, Russian defences proved too strong.It isn't given us to know those rare moments when people are wide open and the lightest touch can wither or heal. A moment too late and we can never reach them any more in this world.
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Originally posted by french frank View Post
Thank you for your comments. Good to have a knowledgeable take on the situation.
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Originally posted by Historian View Post
You appear to be confusing the two sides.
One side destroys cities, towns and villages by ruthlessly bombarding them into desolation, without regard to civilian casualties. Furthermore, this side has a long and hideous track record of using missiles and aerial bombing to attack non-military civilian targets (in this and other conflicts), including schools, hospitals and supermarkets which lie well beyond the immediate battle zone: this is Russia.
The other side avoids inflicting casualties on Russian civilians as much as possible, sends its long-range drones and missiles against military targets and does not routinely commit war crimes: this is Ukraine.
All the evidence I have seen so far from the attack on the Kursk region has shown Ukraine focusing on attacking Russian military forces and positions. Therefore there is no reason for Ukraine to run any risk of losing the "rightful moral high ground" which you rightly observe it currently holds."The sound is the handwriting of the conductor" - Bernard Haitink
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Originally posted by Petrushka View Post
Surprised to note that we've had nothing yet from Sir Lawrence Freedman on his Substack blog.It isn't given us to know those rare moments when people are wide open and the lightest touch can wither or heal. A moment too late and we can never reach them any more in this world.
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Originally posted by Historian View Post
You appear to be confusing the two sides.
One side destroys cities, towns and villages by ruthlessly bombarding them into desolation, without regard to civilian casualties. Furthermore, this side has a long and hideous track record of using missiles and aerial bombing to attack non-military civilian targets (in this and other conflicts), including schools, hospitals and supermarkets which lie well beyond the immediate battle zone: this is Russia.
The other side avoids inflicting casualties on Russian civilians as much as possible, sends its long-range drones and missiles against military targets and does not routinely commit war crimes: this is Ukraine.
All the evidence I have seen so far from the attack on the Kursk region has shown Ukraine focusing on attacking Russian military forces and positions. Therefore there is no reason for Ukraine to run any risk of losing the "rightful moral high ground" which you rightly observe it currently holds.
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Originally posted by Historian View Post
So do I. You are quite right that Ukraine does not want to do anything which will let observers question its status as the victim rather than the perpetrator.
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