Ukraine

[Frances_iom]

The book can indeed be downloaded for free - over 300 pages. Presumably different points of view - so not just LF's.

how ?

[Retune]

how ?

https://muse.jhu.edu/book/122782

[Frances_iom]

It looks as though the lack of American support of anti-missile weapons will see Ukraine pushed back to 3rd world status with little or no power - I commented some months ago that this was the most successful scheme to defeat Ukraine especially as thanks to help from Iran, North Korea and China in replenishing their stock

[Bella Kemp]

Things do look rather grim. I wonder if it was a mistake when so many were urging Ukraine on to retake Crimea and the Donbas - hopeless goals, one sees now with the benefit of hindsight. All those battles did was slaughter Ukraine's soldiers and reduce its weaponry. Russia has vast resources and a practically inexhaustible supply of men and women who can be conscripted. I suppose there will need to be a compromise to end the war

[french frank]

I suppose there will need to be a compromise to end the war

I'm afraid there's no such thing as a compromise where Putin's Russia is concerned.

[Serial_Apologist]

I'm afraid there's no such thing as a compromise where Putin's Russia is concerned.

In the proverbial end that may be less the case than presently seems. Climate change means we are all having to compromise on some of our objectives or dreams. The degree to which we are willing to do so is arguably in ratio to his unwillingness. Russia has already had its share of severe flooding in the past two years, and in the medium term faces the prospect of permafrost melt in its tundra, stretching rights across its northern lands - the ramifications of which are as colossal geographically for Putin and his successors to have to deal with as for any of us.

[french frank]

Russia has already had its share of severe flooding in the past two years, and in the medium term faces the prospect of permafrost melt in its tundra, stretching right across its northern lands - the ramifications of which are as colossal geographically for Putin and his successors to have to deal with as for any of us.

Ukraine might be all the more useful then? Like China with Tibet: very useful new land.

[Historian]

Although the Senate still needs to pass the long-delayed US aid package Ukraine now has a chance to breathe again. This should take some of the pressure off Ukraine's military forces and civilian population. However, this may well only be a temporary respite as a Trump win in the autumn US Presidential elections might well make future measures impossible.

European nations have continued to make welcome contributions such as the undertaking to provide more anti-missile systems and the Czech-led initiative to buy large quantities of artillery shells. Other weapons, notably Germany's Taurus cruise missiles are still being denied by sections of Chancellor Scholz's government.

In the long-term much will depend on which way the US votes in November as well as governments in both the E.U. and U.K. living up to the promises of support they have made.

[Dave2002]

Things do look rather grim. I wonder if it was a mistake when so many were urging Ukraine on to retake Crimea and the Donbas - hopeless goals, one sees now with the benefit of hindsight. All those battles did was slaughter Ukraine's soldiers and reduce its weaponry. Russia has vast resources and a practically inexhaustible supply of men and women who can be conscripted. I suppose there will need to be a compromise to end the war

Thoroughly disagree with you I'm afraid - though I won't give details.

There will probably be some sort of compromise eventually - though when. As I recall the Korean war hasn't officially ended yet - though practically it has unless it flares up again.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Armistice_Agreement

[HighlandDougie]

From Sir Lawrence:

https://open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/escalation-red-lines-risk-and-the?r=w1xt&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

[Serial_Apologist]

Ukraine might be all the more useful then? Like China with Tibet: very useful new land.

That must surely figure in Putin's strategy.

[Historian]

From Sir Lawrence:

https://open.substack.com/pub/samf/p...m_medium=email

Thank you once again HD. Always worth reading Prof. Freedman's work (if you have the time - this is a longer post than usual as it's a printed lecture). The focus is on understanding Putin's options and actions aiming to put fears of nuclear escalation into context.

[Historian]

That must surely figure in Putin's strategy.

Probably, but I'm not convinced it's a major feature. Much of the lands illegally invaded and seized in 2014, as well as those Russia took in the more recent phase of the war, are of limited use economically. Quite apart from the damage caused by the fighting, there has been considerable depopulation as ethnic Ukrainians have fled east, while male Russian separatists have taken heavy casualties during the war. Much of the region's industry is increasingly out-dated and the damage done to the Russian economy (currently concealed to some extent by the refocusing onto a war economy) far outweigh the possible economic advantages. There are those who have looked at the considerable extra mineral resources which the Russians now control, which is an important factor arguing in favour of the 'economic' view of Putin's motives.

Putin needs an enemy (indeed multiple enemies) to help him control Russia: Ukraine and its Western supporters provide that. The prospect of a west-leaning, democratic Ukraine was not one that Putin could regard with equanimity. Furthermore, he believed his own propaganda and thought Ukraine would fold without a fight.

[Serial_Apologist]

Probably, but I'm not convinced it's a major feature. Much of the lands illegally invaded and seized in 2014, as well as those Russia took in the more recent phase of the war, are of limited use economically. Quite apart from the damage caused by the fighting, there has been considerable depopulation as ethnic Ukrainians have fled east, while male Russian separatists have taken heavy casualties during the war. Much of the region's industry is increasingly out-dated and the damage done to the Russian economy (currently concealed to some extent by the refocusing onto a war economy) far outweigh the possible economic advantages. There are those who have looked at the considerable extra mineral resources which the Russians now control, which is an important factor arguing in favour of the 'economic' view of Putin's motives.

Putin needs an enemy (indeed multiple enemies) to help him control Russia: Ukraine and its Western supporters provide that. The prospect of a west-leaning, democratic Ukraine was not one that Putin could regard with equanimity. Furthermore, he believed his own propaganda and thought Ukraine would fold without a fight.

[Ian Thumwood]

From what I have read, the Russian economy is in much better shape than envisaged and that the West will not have the patience to confront Putin. Unfortunately, I cannot see a solution to this conflict and , at the end of the day, feel that it will have more detriment to NATO. In my opinion, the behaviour of Russia is no different from how it has behaved historically. Any change will not be inflicted by NATO and come from within. I just think that NATO has retained the status quo.

i think the interesting thing will be how this effects NATO whose agrandissement prompted the invasion in the first place. Some of the more ridiculous newspapers have had editiorials commenting on Russian plans toimvade Poland which I feel would be totally stupid on Putins' part. I also have a grudging impression that it Russias did invade countries like Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland, that NATO would step back. I cannot see America deploying troops in Europe ready for combat. At some point, the lines between East and West will be redrawn. For what it is worth, I strongly believe we should quit NATO as there are bigger fish to fry than let centuries old legacies play themselves out in Eastern Europe.