Ukraine

[french frank]

Did I read something about the parts of independent/unoccupied Ukraine being allowed to join - just to begin with? I'm not sure that that seems like an idea free from likely problems on all sides.

Possibly my mistake. It has been suggested that Ukraine might join NATO (not the EU) without the Russian-held areas:

"Oleksiy Arestovich — formerly an advisor to the president [Zelensky], brilliant and eccentric, who had an almost magic sway on the crowds in the first months of war — has just launched his presidential campaign with a hitherto taboo suggestion that Ukraine can forgo occupied territories in exchange for joining NATO."

[JasonPalmer]

I did not know that ukraine was progressing eu membership, found a bbc news article about it, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67354323

[TarandeepKang]

Good evening everyone,

I apologise for having been rather quiet for the last few months, but my PhD keeps me busy! In fact, the reason I post here, is because I have just returned from fieldwork in Ukraine. I am a psychologist interested in dramatic stress (and so have been recently the Ukraine to do some work on folks with disabilities in the context). As a wheelchair user myself, that was something of a challenge to put it mildly. Anyway, now back home and of course listening to the evening concert!

[eighthobstruction]

....please enjoy it....I remember your brief stint well....you must have had a challenging time recently....we look forward to hearing about what you can tell us, when you are ready i.e not straight away...

[oddoneout]

Good evening everyone,

I apologise for having been rather quiet for the last few months, but my PhD keeps me busy! In fact, the reason I post here, is because I have just returned from fieldwork in Ukraine. I am a psychologist interested in dramatic stress (and so have been recently the Ukraine to do some work on folks with disabilities in the context). As a wheelchair user myself, that was something of a challenge to put it mildly. Anyway, now back home and of course listening to the evening concert!

It's good to hear from you again. I hadn't seen any posts recently and was hoping you were OK - I was just thinking of posting on the Absent Friends thread in case you been on threads I don't look at.
As 8thO says, when you are able it would be good to hear your experiences and thoughts.

[TarandeepKang]

It's good to hear from you again. I hadn't seen any posts recently and was hoping you were OK - I was just thinking of posting on the Absent Friends thread in case you been on threads I don't look at.
As 8thO says, when you are able it would be good to hear your experiences and thoughts.

Must say it's very sweet of you say that you been thinking of me. I've been thinking of you, all, too. Although I will say it still seems odd to only know you by your screen names!

So what can I tell you...

I've recently published a paper looking at the mental health impact of the war on Ukrainians with disabilities. There is surprisingly little in the literature, and so I literally wrote one of the first studies on people with disabilities exposed to war. The other stuff is very old and very badly designed.

Also working with others look at (numerically again) similar kind of disability/PTSD/anxiety associations in people who have been forcibly displaced or made refugees across Europe.

We will also be beginning a set of interviews with disabled refugees from Ukraine in this country. The idea being to put some descriptive meat top of my statistics and data analysis..

So we generally have the idea that disabled folks expert to disasters should be more vulnerable than everyone else about extent they/we are. But, that doesn't mean that resilience isn't possible. So I was really aiming to collect quantitative and qualitative information about the extent of the resilience among disabled Ukrainians who are still in the country. Although I could have done that from here, I really felt I needed to go myself to build a bond of trust with my participants et cetera.

I've seen people who are just falling apart, but most actually seem to be retaining a good amount of hope and optimism for the future. I saw people who were disabled before the war and who had obviously been struggling much more than previously. But they were getting on with life. They smiled as well as crying. They welcomed me to their home, and shared food.

Several people seem surprised to see a foreigner psychologist with a wheelchair volunteer to come the Ukraine, but I honestly feel there's only so much good I can do from sitting here behind my desk at Warwick. I wanted to see things first hand. And of course there were drone and rocket attacks, but the place I was staying in the wheelchair accessible basement.

My parents tell me that until the 1980s or so (some) disabled people in Britain were kept in institutional settings. Sadly, that is very much still the case in Ukraine. I visited one of these institutions and it reminded me very much of orphanages in Romania. Together with a colleague at a health-related think tank in Kyiv we will be trying to help the Ukrainian government closed down such facilities. In their own words the war has hastened process, and they are very keen to do it. But they need 1st to develop an alternative more community focused solution.

It was a very mixed trip, I saw people who were being extremely resilient, others who were struggling and yet others who had had awful things done to them, before and during this war.

Those are my impressions, if any of you have specific questions, and the answers are suitable to share, I will be glad to try to do so.

[french frank]

A very interesting topic for research TK. Thanks for the résumé. When you talk about the mental health of people with 'disabilities' would that be people who had been disabled or had mental health problems before the conflict started, or had been recently disabled by war injuries, or both?

[HighlandDougie]

The latest thoughts from Sir Lawrence F:

https://samf.substack.com/p/why-not-losing-is-not-tantamount?utm_campaign=email-post&r=w1xt&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

[french frank]

The latest thoughts from Sir Lawrence F:

https://samf.substack.com/p/why-not-...m_medium=email

I wonder who carried out the polling which: "‘for the first time found more Russians in favour of peace talks (48 per cent) than continuing the war (39 per cent) — and only 21 per cent thinking the economy will improve, while 43 per cent assume it will worsen.’

[HighlandDougie]

An interesting new post from Sir Lawrence:

https://samf.substack.com/p/what-should-ukraine-do-next?utm_campaign=email-post&r=w1xt&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

[Frances_iom]

Sir Lawrence admits that the previous Russian attack on infrastructure was almost successful - it looks as though the same strategy seems to have been adopted for this this winter - destruction of significant parts of the electrical infrastructure is unlikely to have repaired as some items such as large transformers require months to replace thus I suspect Ukraine is entering a critical winter - there are still key installations, needed for any future rebuilding, such as the huge nuclear power plant, whose destruction is quite likely if Russia thinks it would be to their advantage.

[Serial_Apologist]

Sir Lawrence admits that the previous Russian attack on infrastructure was almost successful - it looks as though the same strategy seems to have been adopted for this this winter - destruction of significant parts of the electrical infrastructure is unlikely to have repaired as some items such as large transformers require months to replace thus I suspect Ukraine is entering a critical winter - there are still key installations, needed for any future rebuilding, such as the huge nuclear power plant, whose destruction is quite likely if Russia thinks it would be to their advantage.

The Russians would have to calculate likely prevailing wind directions before embarking on such a critical move though.

[HighlandDougie]

Bit of a stock-take from Sir Lawrence F:

https://samf.substack.com/p/self-assessment-setting-expectations?utm_campaign=email-post&r=w1xt&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

[Dave2002]

Indeed, though the very recent sinking of a ship apparently about to unload weapons and ammunition in Crimea is interesting for several reasons.

[Frances_iom]

Well it looks as tho Russia has worked out how to get thru the air defence - soften up with large numbers of relatively low cost drones then throw the big stuff at the targets - given the Putin supporters in the EU and in the Republican party it would appear that Ukrainian air defences will soon run out - may be more unwelcome Orthodox Xmas presents will arrive in next few days before the West can get its act in order.