Originally posted by Serial_Apologist
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Figure of speech. Jus' tryin' to empathise
It isn't given us to know those rare moments when people are wide open and the lightest touch can wither or heal. A moment too late and we can never reach them any more in this world. -
Two of a kind, after all. I didn't see that he had/may have had it handed back. No doubt they have come to an understanding.Originally posted by Pianorak View PostIt isn't given us to know those rare moments when people are wide open and the lightest touch can wither or heal. A moment too late and we can never reach them any more in this world.Comment
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So let's get this straight:
Act 1: Prigozhin foments an armed rebellion against Putin. A deal is supposedly struck via Lukashenko and the dastardly Priggers suddenly turns back and high tails it off to Belarus. Meanwhile, arch-villain Putin makes dire threats of punishment for those involved which doesn't seem to square with Priggers being allowed to freely leave the country. The only culprit to face any action appears to be General Surovikin who may, or may not, have been in the know regarding Priggers half-hearted rebellion. No word from the Chief of the General Staff, General Gerasimov and no-one seems to have any idea where he is.
Act 2: The Belarus leader, Lukashenko, first says that Priggers is in Belarus but then changes his story to reveal that he's actually in St Petersburg and on his way to Moscow. Meanwhile, Priggers' store has yielded a treasure trove of loads of cash, gold bullion and ... wigs!
Act 3: Tune in next week...
If this all sounds like the bizarre plot of some ridiculous comic operetta it could be but it's been rejected as being too implausible. Perhaps, it's a rejected sketch from a 'Round the Horne' script?
Seriously, has anyone got any idea what is going on?"The sound is the handwriting of the conductor" - Bernard HaitinkComment
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It has all the feel of medieval barons going through a show of strength. Usually leads to full on conflict sadly.Originally posted by Petrushka View PostComment
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And the latest thoughts of Sir Lawrence, just arrived in the inbox:
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As usual with LF, the following is a thoughtful piece, well worth 10 minutes of one's time:
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I'm not sure if there is anyone among post-transition forumistas who is still interested in what's going on in the Ukraine, but two pieces worth reading:
and - the latest from Sir Lawrence
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A rather bleak assessment of the current Ukrainian offensive from the BBC's Frank Gardener:
I don't think anyone expected Ukraine to make the sort of gains that they made in their earlier offensives as the Russians have had a lot of time to prepare defensive lines in what they now consider to be their territory. I suspect the allies may now be looking at this situation and thinking - what else can we do? Given that the territorial situation looks like it isn't going to change significantly, Is this the point where the allies are going to start pushing Ukraine on a compromise settlement? One good thing is that Ukraine does still have control of a large part of it's Black Sea border.
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That would be an undisputed win for Putin, wouldn't it? He's now extending the target group for conscription - again. Does that mean he's lost so many troops he's forced to put more boots on the ground just in order to continue with a credible 'operation'? Or that he feels now is the moment to increase the pressure to deliver something he can declare a victory?Originally posted by FRJames View PostIt isn't given us to know those rare moments when people are wide open and the lightest touch can wither or heal. A moment too late and we can never reach them any more in this world.Comment
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....first hand soldier experience of "not being able to move forward"....due Russian well dug in and wide killing zones, make it a forlorn task I'm afraid - given Ukrainians being stretched thin (which was always likely)....bong chingComment
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Both sides have set impossible goals. Russia cannot conquer Ukraine, and Ukraine cannot regain all of its territories. The most realistic solution is a Korean Style cease fire, and then hope for regime change in RussiaOriginally posted by FRJames View PostA rather bleak assessment of the current Ukrainian offensive from the BBC's Frank Gardener:
I don't think anyone expected Ukraine to make the sort of gains that they made in their earlier offensives as the Russians have had a lot of time to prepare defensive lines in what they now consider to be their territory. I suspect the allies may now be looking at this situation and thinking - what else can we do? Given that the territorial situation looks like it isn't going to change significantly, Is this the point where the allies are going to start pushing Ukraine on a compromise settlement? One good thing is that Ukraine does still have control of a large part of it's Black Sea border.Comment
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Yes, a political agreement based on current territorial boundaries would be a win for Putin - or at least the best win he can probably get. Originally, of course, he expected to take control of the whole country in a matter of days.Originally posted by french frank View Post
I suspect Putin's strategy is simply to defend the territory which has already been gained - something they seem to be doing quite effectively. I don't think they have the capability to undertake a major offensive, but they can defend. He is increasing military pressure on Ukraine and the west by simply defending what he has gained.
As the BBC article mentions, the American presidential election is just over a year away. Putin knows that a Republican 'America First' victory is likely and all he has to do is hang on for that and the US will drop Ukraine very quickly. Then we will see what Europe is made of - not much I suspect.
Whatever happens, Putin will effectively manufacture a victory from this conflict for home consumption. Imagine the scenes when the returning Russian troops take their victory march through red square.Comment
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"Putin knows that a Republican 'America First' victory is likely"
Not from what I read of the surveys of the USA's electorate as a whole.Comment
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As elections approach people get more pragmatic. The prospect of another 4 years of Biden and Kamala Harris, and possibly Harris as president if Biden's health deteriorates significantly, will sharpen people's minds.Originally posted by Bryn View PostComment
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As will the prospect of another day of Trump as President in office, for those with minds to sharpen.Originally posted by FRJames View PostComment
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