Ukraine

[Petrushka]

And even assuming Prigozhin prudently decides to settle in Belarus, what happens to Wagner - incorporated into the Russian army, as Putin wanted in the first place?

Comment I've seen so far seems to suggest that major instability in Russia is the likely outcome.

[Petrushka]

What has Progozhin achieved by his mutiny? The aim was supposedly to remove Defence Minister Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov from their posts due to their alleged incompetence yet they are still there. Prigozhin is in Belarus where his mercenaries might follow him to launch a possible attack on Ukraine from there. However, Lukashenko has so far shied away from getting involved in Putin's war so with Putin weakened and struggling to make headway in Ukraine it makes little sense for him to do so now.

As for Prigozhin, he is a marked man, now or in the future, despite the guarantees given for him and his men's safety as part of the agreement. Mexico City wasn't far enough away for Trotsky to escape the wrath of Stalin in 1940.

There are more questions than answers about yesterday's events.

[DracoM]

[LHC]

What has Progozhin achieved by his mutiny? The aim was supposedly to remove Defence Minister Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov from their posts due to their alleged incompetence yet they are still there. Prigozhin is in Belarus where his mercenaries might follow him to launch a possible attack on Ukraine from there. However, Lukashenko has so far shied away from getting involved in Putin's war so with Putin weakened and struggling to make headway in Ukraine it makes little sense for him to do so now.

As for Prigozhin, he is a marked man, now or in the future, despite the guarantees given for him and his men's safety as part of the agreement. Mexico City wasn't far enough away for Trotsky to escape the wrath of Stalin in 1940.

There are more questions than answers about yesterday's events.

Alexander Litvinenko and Sergei Skripal provide more direct examples of Putin's willingness to carry out assassination attempts on his opponents abroad. If I was Prigozhin, I'd be very wary about accepting any invitations to tea from current and former GRU or FSB agents.

[RichardB]

Prigozhin is in Belarus where his mercenaries might follow him to launch a possible attack on Ukraine from there.

But is there any reason why Prigozhin would want to attack Ukraine at all, except under orders from Putin which he seems not to be much concerned with any more? He seems to be positioning himself to take over from Putin at some point, and promising the rest of the Russian ruling elite that he was going to call off the invasion might tip the scales in his favour. Not that it would necessarily be good for the rest of the world to have a thug like that in charge, but there's a thug in charge now as well.

[french frank]

But is there any reason why Prigozhin would want to attack Ukraine at all, except under orders from Putin which he seems not to be much concerned with any more? He seems to be positioning himself to take over from Putin at some point, and promising the rest of the Russian ruling elite that he was going to call off the invasion might tip the scales in his favour. Not that it would necessarily be good for the rest of the world to have a thug like that in charge, but there's a thug in charge now as well.

The view seemed to be that he was as pro-war as any of them. Since then the signs have been puzzlingly contradictory - now questioning the whole basis of the war (not necessarily the war itself but the stated basis for it), now questioning the Russian military leadership. But what was the 'mutiny' supposed to achieve, given he gave up on it so quickly? And what does one make of reports that Wagner's arrival in Rostov was greeted with enthusiasm? Anti-Putinist or ultra nationalist?

[eighthobstruction]

The view seemed to be that he was as pro-war as any of them. Since then the signs have been puzzlingly contradictory - now questioning the whole basis of the war (not necessarily the war itself but the stated basis for it), now questioning the Russian military leadership. But what was the 'mutiny' supposed to achieve, given he gave up on it so quickly? And what does one make of reports that Wagner's arrival in Rostov was greeted with enthusiasm? Anti-Putinist or ultra nationalist?

....well the W group were victorious and heroic, winners,,,,How about it was just planned ruse between them all Putin/Prog'/ Lukashenko to find reasons to end war....I think that column yesterday made me think of the Road to Bassra....layers upon layers....

[HighlandDougie]

The post-mortem:

https://samf.substack.com/p/that-was-the-coup-that-was?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

[richardfinegold]

The “mutiny” started after Prog claimed that Wagner was under attack and had been bombed by the Russian Air Force. If that really happened then Wagner’s mutiny was an aggressive counterattack. Prog probably called it off after achieving his aim of scaring the Government and obtaining what he may have perceived being the best deal he could for he and his men.
Whether or not Wagner truly was deliberately attacked was another issue. It could have been a fog of war misstep, where Wagner was mistaken for Ukrainians. Wagner could have interpreted such an incident as a deliberate blow, which they had previously anticipated as a distinct possibility, and their coordinated response took the conventional military by surprise .
I don’t know that this weakened Putin. Wagner would have been the only group with enough firepower to over throw him. They now seem to be sidelined. This reminds me more of Hitler going after Ernst Rohm and the SA than Stalin v Trotsky

[JasonPalmer]

Yea, reminded me of ernst and the sa as well.

[Nick Armstrong]

I found this article enlightening for background - not least (at last!) an explanation of the use of the name ‘Wagner’:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-wagner-group-is-a-crisis-of-putins-own-making

(It was one of a small allocation of ‘free read’ articles in advance of subscription)

[vinteuil]

I found this article enlightening for background - not least (at last!) an explanation of the use of the name ‘Wagner’

... there are quite good wiki pages on the Wagner Group -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group

and the unspeakable Utkin

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Utkin

.

[Petrushka]

I don’t know that this weakened Putin

How has it not? A visibly shaken Putin appeared on TV on Saturday morning uttering all kinds of threats to Prigozhin and his armed mutineers. Hours later he meekly negotiates a deal, the mutineers having got halfway to Moscow virtually unopposed, lets Prigozhin leave the country and pardons the rest of his merry men. Moreover, Putin himself has apparently fled the capital to who knows where. There has been no word from him since.

Can you imagine Stalin or Hitler doing this? It is, though, not unlike Stalin's breakdown in 1941 following the German invasion and his disappearance from view. Even Hitler managed a radio broadcast after the bomb plot on July 20 1944 ('A very small group of ambitious, unscrupulous, and at the same time unreasonable, criminal-stupid officers has plotted a conspiracy to eliminate me') with ruthless results.

Putin has been severely damaged and looks weak in the eyes of the world and the Russian people.

[french frank]

Putin has been severely damaged and looks weak in the eyes of the world and the Russian people.

I think this is a bit problematic. I watched Steve Rosenberg's analysis of how the Russian media are treating the story. Au contraire, mon frere: the competent Putin was responsible for dealing with what was looking like a nasty insurrection. But even that's problematic because we can't know what proportion of the population swallows the Kremlin line and what proportion is beginning to join the dots, especially on Ukraine - and how are they likely to react. Lukashenko emerges as the 'strong man'. For heavens sake! Belarus sorts out Russia's problem? So it's all about perception: from the west it looks as if Putin is weakened, but it may not be the west's perception that matters.

[Bryn]

I found this article enlightening for background - not least (at last!) an explanation of the use of the name ‘Wagner’:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-wagner-group-is-a-crisis-of-putins-own-making

(It was one of a small allocation of ‘free read’ articles in advance of subscription)

A very small point but was not Bruckner Hitler's favourite composer, rather than Wagner? Thank goodness Prigozhin's mercenaries were not named after AB.