Ukraine

[eighthobstruction]

thanks

[HighlandDougie]

Not specifically about the current war in the Ukraine, but, as ever with Sir L, worth a quick read:

https://samf.substack.com/p/the-death-of-captain-waskow?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

[EnemyoftheStoat]

Not specifically about the current war in the Ukraine, but, as ever with Sir L, worth a quick read:

https://samf.substack.com/p/the-deat...m_medium=email

More than worth a quick read. Thank you for posting the link, Dougie.

[Historian]

Not specifically about the current war in the Ukraine, but, as ever with Sir L, worth a quick read:

https://samf.substack.com/p/the-deat...m_medium=email

Very much in agreement EotS (hope that is an acceptable abbreviation): thank you HD. Furthermore it does relate to the current war as it makes important points about the human factor in warfare: what soldiers undergo and how they try to get through it now and in the Second World War (and in so many others).

On a slightly-related note I was surprised to find that I had not been aware of a custom at the American cemetery near Omaha Beach, scene of terrible losses on D-Day (6th June 1944).

[Tevot]

A very interesting and sobering opinion piece in today's Observer

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/11/ecocide-russia-ukraine-war-kakhovka-dam-destroyed

[french frank]

A very interesting and sobering opinion piece in today's Observer

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-dam-destroyed

That's very thought-provoking. I wonder whether the lack of support from the west after the blowing up of the dam is uncertainty. Did the Ukrainians do it themselves, as Russia claims? All sorts of reasons to judge this unlikely but … Who blew up up the North Sea pipelines? Was it Russia (obviously) or - western intelliegence does show that the Ukrainians could have been involved.

But the thesis proposed in the article is persuasive. Crime without punishment. Punishment without crime. A historical Russian propensity towards needless/heedless destruction.

[Historian]

.. I wonder whether the lack of support from the west after the blowing up of the dam is uncertainty. Did the Ukrainians do it themselves, as Russia claims? All sorts of reasons to judge this unlikely but … Who blew up up the North Sea pipelines? Was it Russia (obviously) or - western intelliegence does show that the Ukrainians could have been involved...

You may well be right. There should be no uncertainty though, should there (I'm not accusing you of this ff by the way).

Leaving aside the Nordstream question, why would Ukraine destroy the Kakhovka dam at all, let alone at the most inconvenient time for their offensive? An attack east across the Dnipro River was not likely, however it was a possibility that the Russians had to allow for. That would seem to be out of the question now, effectively allowing Russia to shorten their lines and concentrate more forces and supplies elsewhere. Although Ukraine has carried out demolitions before these were on a small scale and designed to stop Russian advances. On past record alone one side has a reputation for looking after its people (and enemy prisoners) as far as possible, whereas the other has minimal regard for human life (even on its own side), let alone property and the environment.

For me the only difficulty would be to determine if the destruction of the dam was a deliberate act (maybe demolition by explosives) or negligence (artificially high water levels and a refusal to open the sluice gates sufficiently in time). Either way, the responsibility for this action lies with Putin's Russia as it would not have happened without the illegal invasion and occupation of much of Ukraine.

[french frank]

For me the only difficulty would be to determine if the destruction of the dam was a deliberate act (maybe demolition by explosives) or negligence (artificially high water levels and a refusal to open the sluice gates sufficiently in time). Either way, the responsibility for this action lies with Putin's Russia as it would not have happened without the illegal invasion and occupation of much of Ukraine.

The Norwegians detected evidence of explosions:

https://www.jordskjelv.no/meldinger/seismic-signals-recorded-from-an-explosion-at-the-kakhovka-dam-in-ukraine

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/09/seismic-data-adds-evidence-ukraine-kakhovka-dam-blown-up

[Dave2002]

For me the only difficulty would be to determine if the destruction of the dam was a deliberate act (maybe demolition by explosives) or negligence (artificially high water levels and a refusal to open the sluice gates sufficiently in time). Either way, the responsibility for this action lies with Putin's Russia as it would not have happened without the illegal invasion and occupation of much of Ukraine.

The dam destruction does seem to have been deliberate - with seismic evidence from other sources indicating that. There is still the "who dunnit?" question. In the short term that doesn't appear to benefit Ukraine, but in the longer term does it perhaps create water problems for Crimea? I don't know. Also there is presumably a loss of power generation from the dam, though that may have already been compromised. There were also some alleged reports of mines floating down the river - but again, who would they benefit, or threaten?

[duncan]

The excellent Anders Puck Nelson's fast take on the Nova Kakhovka dam disaster. In summary, it was mined by the Russians but don't discount the possibility the timing of the explosion was "due to some combination of incompetence" rather than grand strategy. Never underestimate the possibility of a cock-up.

[french frank]

Interesting. He lays out quite a few possibilities for what might have happened, given that it wasn't militarily 'a smart move' for Russia. He does seem to be correct in saying that the Ukrainian held side of the river is on higher ground than the Russian held side, so their own defensive structures, trenches &c are likely to have been flooded. He may right in saying that in a couple of weeks time, with the reservoir no longer existing, the water of the river will actually be returning to its normal level. The Ukrainians would at that point find an advance easier because the Russian defences will have been significantly destroyed. If it amounts to Russian incompetence, would one be suprised given the way they have pursued their military operation so far?

There's no doubt that the destruction of the dam has caused a lot of devastation, which makes me wonder whether the Russians thought no further ahead than to punish for the strikes on Moscow and the Belgorod area. The idea that it wasn't a smart move doesn't automatically rule it out the possibility.

The excellent Anders Puck Nelson's fast take on the Nova Kakhovka dam disaster. In summary, it was mined by the Russians but don't discount the possibility the timing of the explosion was "due to some combination of incompetence" rather than grand strategy. Never underestimate the possibility of a cock-up.

[JasonPalmer]

Tonights play on radio 3 is about ukraine, will try a listen again in the week as looks intersting but busy with other things this evening.

[HighlandDougie]

The excellent Anders Puck Nelson's fast take on the Nova Kakhovka dam disaster. In summary, it was mined by the Russians but don't discount the possibility the timing of the explosion was "due to some combination of incompetence" rather than grand strategy. Never underestimate the possibility of a cock-up.

There appears to be a growing body of evidence (seismic, spread of the explosion clearly indicating that it was internal within the structure and not the result of, say, shelling from the outside or a bomb dropped by an aircraft), to put it simply, someone on the Russian side, knowing that the turbine hall etc inside the dam had been mined last year, simply pressed a button without completely thinking through the consequences of doing so. Very easily done, as in, "Oops!".

[HighlandDougie]

Another new (and interesting) essay from Sir Lawrence:

https://samf.substack.com/p/does-artificial-intelligence-change?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

[zoomy]

Most likely explanations are 1. Ukraine blew up the dam in order to deprive Crimea of water supply and disrupt Russian defence preparations down river where the Russian occupied side is lower than the Ukrainian side. Or 2. it was accidental from a combination of lack of maintenance over the past 18 months and Ukrainian shelling of the dam in recent months where they hoped to degrade it just enough to allow more water to flow downstream and make it more difficult to reach Odessa in any renewed Russian offensive.