Ukraine

[Historian]

Well this was unexpected: Moscow has agreed to supply Prigozhin's fighters with more ammunition. Allegedly.

Meanwhile, we'll have to wait and see what actually happens - also on May 9th, Victory Day, when Moscow is said to be somewhat on edge.

Well, quite. I don't spend too much time analysing Prigozhin, merely note the latest outburst and move on for the reasons we discussed earlier i.e. upthread (that is the right direction?) ff.

Yet another deadline for the much-heralded capture of Bakhmut on May 9th. I imagine that Putin may well claim victory, irrespective of what is happening on the ground.

Much speculation as to the reasons why many of the Victory Day parades have been cancelled. The stated reason - security fears for the population - is unlikely as Ukraine does not constantly and openly target civilians and the Russia government has very limited interest in the welfare of most of its citizens anyway. Last year's Moscow parade was a bit of a damp squib and I would imagine it would be quite hard to scrape up much of a show this time. This is a country which is now sending T55 tanks (first produced in 1958) into battle because of losses in battle.

[richardfinegold]

Well, quite. I don't spend too much time analysing Prigozhin, merely note the latest outburst and move on for the reasons we discussed earlier i.e. upthread (that is the right direction?) ff.

Yet another deadline for the much-heralded capture of Bakhmut on May 9th. I imagine that Putin may well claim victory, irrespective of what is happening on the ground.

Much speculation as to the reasons why many of the Victory Day parades have been cancelled. The stated reason - security fears for the population - is unlikely as Ukraine does not constantly and openly target civilians and the Russia government has very limited interest in the welfare of most of its citizens anyway. Last year's Moscow parade was a bit of a damp squib and I would imagine it would be quite hard to scrape up much of a show this time. This is a country which is now sending T55 tanks (first produced in 1958) into battle because of losses in battle.

Prighozin appears to have been throwing a tantrum to get more ammo. He manages to make Heinrich Himmler look dignified by comparison

[oddoneout]

Following Prigozhin's outburst I saw a suggestion that this kind of action is not the first to get what he wants. I can't find that comment now but did come across this which also suggests similar

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-7-2023

[Historian]

Yes, this was discussed upthread a little (apologies for self-(re) quotation):

As you said, I wouldn't put too much military weight on what Prigozhin says ff. His pronouncements often flatly contradict one another and are designed mainly for a domestic audience - albeit one with a 'restricted view'. However, Prigozhin is one of those who currently have Putin's favour (war criminal Igor Girkin being another) and therefore can say more or less what he likes (subject to Kremlin veto).

You are correct that in some ways Prigozhin's main enemy is seemingly not the Ukrainians but the Russian Ministry of Defence and its commanders. Much of this is 'political' and goes both ways. For a long time Prigozhin's line was that only Wagner (which is a 'Private Military Company' theoretically not permitted in Russia with long history of cruelty and war crimes) was doing a good job in Ukraine. This was followed by protests when the previous overly-generous allowance of artillery shells and other essentials was cut back to the same level as the rest of the armed forces. Now (or at least yesterday) this may have changed to 'If we don't change things something even worse is going to happen, mark my words' (I paraphrase). This may be a response to the coming Ukrainian offensive which is daily expected by the Russians.

Prigozhin is looking to the future both short-term - how can he avoid sudden removal via a window - and also, treading very carefully, to a post-Putin Russia looking for another strong man to sort everything out.

[french frank]

Yes, this was discussed upthread a little (apologies for self-(re) quotation):

Heavy use of the word 'likely' in the USW report but whatever the truth, Russia's military reliance on one very wealthy civilian ex-convict says quite a bit. Similarly with Kadyrov, even though he has more battle experience. He's just a thug.

[Historian]

Heavy use of the word 'likely' in the USW report but whatever the truth, Russia's military reliance on one very wealthy civilian ex-convict says quite a bit. Similarly with Kadyrov, even though he has more battle experience. He's just a thug.

Agreed that it doesn't say much for what Russia used to proclaim as 'the second army in the world'. One might argue that they are not even the second army in Ukraine now. That's not to say the regular forces haven't been fighting in the recent offensive, but with conspicuous lack of success.

Russia's problems with ammunition (and other supplies) have limited their ability to pursue their usual tactic of heavy shelling, followed by infantry attacks (without much in the way of armoured support), which are repeated in the event of failure until the desired result is secured. Elsewhere Russian forces, including their theoretically 'elite' units such as airborne troops and naval infantry (both operating in a ground role), have suffered very heavy losses in badly-planned and executed attacks over open ground, the fighting around Vuhledar being the best example.

There is much discussion as to the usefulness of the Kadyrovite forces in battle, as distinct from looting rear areas, operating as blocking troops to stop other units of mobilised troops from retreating [Having checked I can't find any evidence as distinct from rumours that they have been used for this. However, 'blocking troops' have been used to stop other units from running and have fired on them sometimes.], or repressing their own people back home in Chechnya.

[The 'Institute for the Study of War' tends to caveat all its reports quite heavily as you mention. On the whole I find them reliable but somewhat behind the times and occasionally too trusting of claimed Russian advances.]

[french frank]

I'd guess this latest round today of shelling is pre-Victory Day tomorrow. Local officials have admitted that 1,700 people have been evacuated from Zaporizhzhia, though I'm not sure that the shelling there has stopped.

[HighlandDougie]

Just appeared in my inbox:

https://samf.substack.com/p/a-victory-parade-without-victories-a91?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

[french frank]

Just appeared in my inbox:

https://samf.substack.com/p/a-victor...m_medium=email

Thaks, hd. One really does get the feeling of being inside what is really going on, pace the fact that Freedman is not a neutral observer.

[eighthobstruction]

....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUkpR9BoJnA.... an 'up to date' assessment of Ukraines capabilities....

[Serial_Apologist]

....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUkpR9BoJnA.... an 'up to date' assessment of Ukraines capabilities....

I sometimes worry that programmes such as this can prompt Russia to up its game. BTW he looks remarkably like the late Prof Jim Lovelock, doesn't he!

[Pulcinella]

Maybe more suited to the general Politics thread?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-way-this-government-is-treating-ukrainian-musicians-is-inhumane-q5sdm5w87?shareToken=96d2ab3808757a3b4f389366980a9d28

[HighlandDougie]

For followers of Sir Lawrence's thoughts, this has just appeared in my inbox:

https://samf.substack.com/p/can-ukraines-air-defence-systems?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

P.S. I had to resort to a VPN link to the UK to post it from Hong Kong. I hope something technical with this hotel's wi-fi network rather than a portent of something more sinister

[Historian]

For followers of Sir Lawrence's thoughts, this has just appeared in my inbox:

https://samf.substack.com/p/can-ukraines-air-defence-systems?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

P.S. I had to resort to a VPN link to the UK to post it from Hong Kong. I hope something technical with this hotel's wi-fi network rather than a portent of something more sinister

Thank you HD: seems to be fine to access this in the United Kingdom, so maybe just a technical issue. However, bearing in mind who runs Hong Kong one can't be sure.

In this 'issue' Prof. Freedman focuses on the question of why Ukraine wants F-16 military aircraft and how that might affect the war.

[Historian]

It seems that Russia might, after something like 224 days, have taken the last Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut. It's little enough to show for months of fighting and has cost them dearly. In military terms, Bakhmut has limited significance. Prigozhin will no doubt portray this as a victory for his Wagner fighters, over both Ukraine and the Russian MoD. It seems unlikely that Russia will attempt to advance beyond Bakhmut, even if they were able.

From now on I expect the offensives to be moving from west to east as Ukraine steps up their long-awaited counter-offensive.