Ukraine

[Dave2002]

This is interesting - and I assume reliable enough:

https://youtu.be/lOZNrjfk310

[french frank]

A very interesting development, not least for the confirmation of what Ukraine and its allies have contended:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65493008

'In his new announcement, standing in front of his men, [Prigozhin] said on 10 May they would be "obliged to transfer positions in the settlement of Bakhmut to units of the defence ministry and withdraw the remains of Wagner to logistics camps to lick our wounds".'

[french frank]

Reuters analysis here. It's probably right not to trust the announcement of a Wagner withdrawal, but pictures of mayhem and his fury at the Russian defence chiefs may not be read as bluff at home in Russia - if the general public actually sees it.

A very interesting development, not least for the confirmation of what Ukraine and its allies have contended:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65493008

'In his new announcement, standing in front of his men, [Prigozhin] said on 10 May they would be "obliged to transfer positions in the settlement of Bakhmut to units of the defence ministry and withdraw the remains of Wagner to logistics camps to lick our wounds".'

[Historian]

As you said, I wouldn't put too much military weight on what Prigozhin says ff. His pronouncements often flatly contradict one another and are designed mainly for a domestic audience - albeit one with a 'restricted view'. However, Prigozhin is one of those who currently have Putin's favour (war criminal Igor Girkin being another) and therefore can say more or less what he likes (subject to Kremlin veto).

You are correct that in some ways Prigozhin's main enemy is seemingly not the Ukrainians but the Russian Ministry of Defence and its commanders. Much of this is 'political' and goes both ways. For a long time Prigozhin's line was that only Wagner (which is a 'Private Military Company' theoretically not permitted in Russia with long history of cruelty and war crimes) was doing a good job in Ukraine. This was followed by protests when the previous overly-generous allowance of artillery shells and other essentials was cut back to the same level as the rest of the armed forces. Now (or at least yesterday) this may have changed to 'If we don't change things something even worse is going to happen, mark my words' (I paraphrase). This may be a response to the coming Ukrainian offensive which is daily expected by the Russians.

Prigozhin is looking to the future both short-term - how can he avoid sudden removal via a window - and also, treading very carefully, to a post-Putin Russia looking for another strong man to sort everything out.

[french frank]

13 mins ago:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65506993

Russia accused of using phosphorus bombs in Bakhmut

"Despite Prigozhin's claims, senior Ukrainian officials said Wagner was actually redeploying mercenaries towards Bakhmut in a bid to capture the city before Tuesday's Victory Day celebrations in Russia."

[richardfinegold]

Prighozin states that he is pulling Wagner out of Bakhmut

[french frank]

Prighozin states that he is pulling Wagner out of Bakhmut

So we can assume he isn't? Ukraine says they're digging in as a response to the expected Ukraine offensive.

[richardfinegold]

So we can assume he isn't? Ukraine says they're digging in as a response to the expected Ukraine offensive.

This is reminiscent of the tensions between the Military Arm of the SS and the regular Wehrmacht which became particularly acute towards the end of that war, although Himmler and Jodl didn’t duke it out in the media

[Historian]

This is reminiscent of the tensions between the Military Arm of the SS and the regular Wehrmacht which became particularly acute towards the end of that war, although Himmler and Jodl didn’t duke it out in the media

Yes, definite similarities with Hitler's model of competing figures ensuring that no-one became too powerful (as well as theoretically conforming to Nazi racial ideology). Putin seems happy to accept the corollary that his senior military leadership is, at best, semi-competent but above all loyal.

We'll see what happens in the next few days about Wagner and Bakhmut, but Prigozhin is nothing if not inconsistent.

[Historian]

13 mins ago:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65506993

Russia accused of using phosphorus bombs in Bakhmut.

They have been doing that for months ff, as well as in Kherson city: not quite sure why the BBC seems to have been unaware of this before. These weapons are indiscriminate and mostly directed against non-military targets. The same is true of most Russian missile strikes. This is a striking contrast with Ukraine which has refrained from shelling residential areas of, for example, Donetsk city, which is well within range of their artillery.

[french frank]

They have been doing that for months ff, as well as in Kherson city: not quite sure why the BBC seems to have been unaware of this before.

Probably covered as Ukraine's new accusation, and in the context of Prigozhin's announcement of withdrawal. Previous accusations are also mentioned with Russia declaring that they have 'never violated international conventions'. The story also points out that the chemical has been used frequently in recent times, including by the US in the Middle East.

[Historian]

Probably covered as Ukraine's new accusation, and in the context of Prigozhin's announcement of withdrawal. Previous accusations are also mentioned with Russia declaring that they have 'never violated international conventions'. The story also points out that the chemical has been used frequently in recent times, including by the US in the Middle East.

That would make sense I suppose. White Phosphorus (which I find I cannot remember how to spell) is on the border-line of breaking chemical warfare conventions, so they may be an element of truth in Russia's denial of this point. However, there is established evidence of numerous Russian breaches of war crimes law both in Ukraine and elsewhere e.g. Syria. Targeting civilian populations is not allowed for example and Russia has been doing that in Ukraine since the beginning of the war.

Thank you for your continued thoughtful contributions to this thread (and also to rfg and everyone else who reads and comments).

[Serial_Apologist]

That would make sense I suppose. White Phosphorus (which I find I cannot remember how to spell) is on the border-line of breaking chemical warfare conventions, so they may be an element of truth in Russia's denial of this point. However, there is established evidence of numerous Russian breaches of war crimes law both in Ukraine and elsewhere e.g. Syria. Targeting civilian populations is not allowed for example and Russia has been doing that in Ukraine since the beginning of the war.

Thank you for your continued thoughtful contributions to this thread (and also to rfg and everyone else who reads and comments).

I think the thanks are owed to your good self!

[french frank]

I think the thanks are owed to your good self!

[french frank]

Well this was unexpected: Moscow has agreed to supply Prigozhin's fighters with more ammunition. Allegedly.

Meanwhile, we'll have to wait and see what actually happens - also on May 9th, Victory Day, when Moscow is said to be somewhat on edge.