Ukraine

[HighlandDougie]

And, for those interested, Sir L F's latest post has just appeared in the inbox:

https://samf.substack.com/p/still-bakhmut?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

[Anastasius]

Very interesting article. A sad world in which such detailed analysis and other related activities - implementations - counter defences etc., now seem to be necessary.

Totally agree and which is why I don't read them as a Ukrainian on my mother's side.

[gurnemanz]

Google Street View adapted to show some Ukraine streets before and after.

https://theundeniablestreetview.com/

[HighlandDougie]

Another new post from Lawrence Freedman:

https://samf.substack.com/p/time-for-ukraines-offensive?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

[Petrushka]

Another new post from Lawrence Freedman:

https://samf.substack.com/p/time-for...m_medium=email

Thanks for flagging these up, HD. I only checked yesterday to see if there was a new one so could otherwise have missed this.

[eighthobstruction]

....thank you...

[Tevot]

Apologies if this has been mentioned by others in previous posts - but I'd recommend a series of lectures prompted by the invasion - on Ukraine's history by Timothy Snyder at Yale University. These are on Youtube and I found them highly informative https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJcz...oz_1Mx1MaO6sw_

There are also numerous podcasts about Ukraine and I would recommend the following; Ukrainecast ( BBC hosted by Victoria Derbyshire) In Moscow's Shadows (Mark Galeotti) Explaining Ukraine (hosted by Ukrainian academics / commentators), Next Year in Moscow; and The Power Vertical. The latter interested me as it stated that Ukraine has to reclaim and clear Crimea - because continued Russian occupation will choke Ukrainian lines of communication - i.e. restrict food and fuel to the point that Ukraine will no longer be viable. Indeed we've seen this with the Russians interfering with grain exports and the like.

Also on Youtube there is "Reporting from Ukraine" which gives a fascinating insight into the latest developments in Bakhmut using maps and satellite imagery. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfwX7CE248M

It seems clear that the Ukrainians have suffered grievous losses - but I am in awe of their fortitude and tenacity. Slava Ukraine.

[HighlandDougie]

Many thanks for the links. I know the Timothy Snyder series but had not come across the “Reporting from Ukraine”. There has been some interesting material in the New York Times but I think that it may be pay-walled: otherwise I would post links.

[Historian]

Kostiantyn Starovystskyi, a conductor at the Kyiv Opera, was killed on active service with his infantry unit in the Kramatorsk region on April 5th. He was aged 40 and left a wife and a daughter.

He is one of many Ukrainians who joined up after the Russian invasion to defend their country and did not live to see its eventual victory.

In the absence of any likelihood of Putin backing down, I hope that Ukraine's forthcoming offensive is a great success.

[french frank]

In the absence of any likelihood of Putin backing down, I hope that Ukraine's forthcoming offensive is a great success.

Hear, hear to that. Meanwhile his ruthless crushing of dissent continues at home .

[Historian]

Professor Lawrence Freedman's latest piece is on 'The Impact of Sanctions (and what's really going on with Russia's economy?)'.

[richardfinegold]

Thanks for posting that

[Historian]

Thanks for posting that

It's usually Highland Dougie who gets there first rfg!

Prof. Freedman gives mixed news: sanctions have had less effect in the short-term than initially hoped for, although opinion is divided as to how much economic damage Russia has taken. Longer term, Russia is going to have major problems as it has lost its place in the European energy market and its new customers (India and China for example) like cheap oil so Russia is losing out.

From a military point of view Russia will continue to struggle to replace the huge losses of equipment which they have suffered in Ukraine. This may prove to be decisive in that, although they can replace their losses in men, they won't be able to compete in terms of weapons and equipment.

[Dave2002]

To an extent the observation that for many Russians things just carry on as before is reflected in countries outside Russia. For many in Europe and the US the effects have not prevented them travelling, or enjoying life in other ways, though some are undoubtedly feeling financially stretched and having problems with paying bills for food, heating, accommodation etc. It is hard now, if not impossible, for anyone in countries outside Russia - and perhaps Belarus - to believe that Putin and his regime, or any similar ones which may emerge, could ever be trusted - so peace deals based on swapping land for peace would seem to be out of the question. This statement does not seemingly apply to some countries which are a long way from the conflict, such as some African countries, India etc.

What will eventually happen is still rather an unkown, and waiting for natural mortality to take effect would give a long period of difficulty, though in some countries that eventually turned out to be the only way that significant changes occurred.

[Historian]

It may seem as if the war is currently in a phase of stalemate. This implies that both sides are exerting their utmost efforts and that neither side is able to force a win. However, it would be more accurate to say that the war is about to enter a new phase in which a major Ukraine victory is a distinct possibility.

The large advances made by Ukraine in the autumn of 2022 were followed by a long period of consolidation on the part of Ukraine. Then came the long-heralded offensive by Russia using the troops and resources built up during the mobilisation of 2022.

This offensive has been almost entirely unsuccessful. With the likely exception of Bakhmut, the smouldering remains of which are likely to be overrun soon, Russia has made no major advances on any of the numerous sections of the front line which it has been attacking. In the north Ukraine has been pushed back in the direction of Kupyansk, but Ukraine has successfully defended that important communications hub. Mud, winter weather and strong Russian reinforcements stopped the Ukrainians from taking Kreminna, but they still hold positions close enough to threaten that town in the coming weeks. Bakhmut continues to resist, ensuring Russia concentrates its efforts there with corresponding fewer men and resources for other sectors. Further south, Russia has been attacking hard around Avdiivka but with relatively little success. Moving West, Russia has experienced heavy losses, especially around Vuhledar. Despite the high hopes Putin and his, at best, semi-competent military leadership must have held, the Russian offensive has been hugely costly in terms of men and equipment and is essentially over, with the exception of Bakhmut.

Soon, the timing being very much dependent on the weather and ground conditions, as well as assessments of where Russia is weakest, Ukraine will begin its next major offensive. This will benefit from kinder weather and lack of mud, as well as better organised logistics to supply the troops. These forces will have had prolonged periods of rest and training, as well as substantial accessions of western weaponry. Hopefully a substantial part of Ukraine's army will now be able to conduct effective combined arms attacks in a way that Russia has proven unable to do since the beginning of the war.

Where will the main attack take place? Obviously I have no information, however I can briefly sketch some of the possibilities. An attack in the north which took first Svatove and then Starobilsk would clear the north-east corner of Ukraine and add to the supply problems of the remaining Russian units in the east by cutting supply links from Belgorod. If things went well enough this offensive could even be developed into an attack south-east to start clearing the Luhansk sector. Some commentators suggest a strong counter-offensive against the exhausted Russian forces around Bakhmut could cause that front to collapse leading to Russia losing its gains in that direction. Personally I feel that is less likely because of the logistics challenges posed by the shattered transport links through Bakhmut. Another option in the south-east would be to target Russian forces in and around the city of Donetsk, while avoiding street-fighting in the city itself. It is possible that the Russian defences in this sector are less well developed and this would drive a wedge into their positions in Ukraine. The final realistic option (discounting a major attack across the Dnipro river at Kherson) would be a drive south towards communications hubs such as Polohy and Tokmak, then moving on Melitopol or Mariupol. This would aim to destroy the Russian land-bridge to the Crimea.

Ukraine needs to make the most of the training and preparation time they have had, as well as showing western donors what they can do with their new equipment, which includes a reasonable number of western main battle tanks, as well as other equipment. The Ukrainians are generally good at taking the unexpected option. Hopefully we will start to see important advances and military success in May (and beyond).