Ukraine

[Historian]

Apologies to Historian but I received the below earlier - as ever, well worth reading

https://samf.substack.com/p/the-storm-before-the-calm

No apologies needed HD, I don't hold a monopoly. Thank you for posting: agree with your assessment.

[Dave2002]

This looks like an interesting and well put together article: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...opolitics.html

[vinteuil]

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-64756620

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[JasonPalmer]

I have a feeling that the Russian draft will give them a big enough army to push Ukrainian forces back beyond the lands which "voted" to join Russia, it depends on if Ukraine will then seek peace.

[french frank]

I have a feeling that the Russian draft will give them a big enough army to push Ukrainian forces back beyond the lands which "voted" to join Russia, it depends on if Ukraine will then seek peace.

What would you think of that result? Good news for the world?

[JasonPalmer]

Up to the Ukrainians, how long can they actually wage a war ? Putin will eventually die of old age so perhaps a temporary peace deal would help. Those who want to be part of Ukraine can move west,

[french frank]

Those who want to be part of Ukraine can move west,

How would moving west make them part of Ukraine?

[Frances_iom]

How would moving west make them part of Ukraine?

I suspect the OP might be unaware of history - maybe a brief investigation of the Sudetenland in 1938

[JasonPalmer]

Well, what's the alternative, a never ending war because putin doesn't want to lose face ?

[vinteuil]

I have a feeling that the Russian draft will give them a big enough army to push Ukrainian forces back beyond the lands which "voted" to join Russia, it depends on if Ukraine will then seek peace.

... and your 'feeling' is based on what? Perhaps you could share any info you have with our Chief of Defence Staff, the Secretary-General of NATO, and Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy - they might find it useful.
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[JasonPalmer]

... and your 'feeling' is based on what? Perhaps you could share any info you have with our Chief of Defence Staff, the Secretary-General of NATO, and Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy - they might find it useful.
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andrew Roberts has written an interesting article promoted on the front cover of the spectator, he seems well informed....

[french frank]

andrew Roberts has written an interesting article promoted on the front cover of the spectator, he seems well informed....

What, briefly, is his argument? The problem is, he isn't here to respond to challenges to his point of view. You are the one who has put forward a point of view so shouldn't you be be prepared to defend it?

[Ein Heldenleben]

I have a feeling that the Russian draft will give them a big enough army to push Ukrainian forces back beyond the lands which "voted" to join Russia, it depends on if Ukraine will then seek peace.

One thing I’ve learnt is not to make predictions about this. Many commentators in the West assumed Russia would take Kyiv within in a month and the Ukraine government would be forced to relocate. No one realised just how poorly led the Russian Army was and how low its morale / fighting spirit proved to be. This conflict could well drag on for years , assume a new low intensity form , or perhaps rapidly escalate . It’s almost impossible to predict. One thing I would say is that there seems very little evidence that the Ukrainians are willing to seek terms and that the NATO alliance has held up much better than predicted. The Ukrainians are winning the tech battle , the PR battle - everything apart from the WW1 style slugfest. One thing we did learn from WW1 is how relatively quickly stalemate can turn to victory for one side through improved tactics and armour , new tech and collapse in morale.

[Frances_iom]

If you can read "Stalin's Folly" by Constantine Pleshakov - will certainly fill you in on the depth of the failure of the Red Army in June 1941 but thanks in most part to the sheer numbers of the Russians they fought back but it was in spite of rather than because of their leadership.

The book was published in 2005 but already then the author notes the "enlightened" nationalism of Putin, the closing down of the archives and that Russia was lapsing into a deep freeze - its easy to look back with hindsight but in too many ways the West did not react earlier just as it did with Germany in the 1930s

[oddoneout]

I have a feeling that the Russian draft will give them a big enough army to push Ukrainian forces back beyond the lands which "voted" to join Russia, it depends on if Ukraine will then seek peace.

The only "peace" that Putin would be interested in would be Ukraine ceding the country to Russia. But having achieved that why would Putin stop there? Which other countries might he then decide to invade? He is in my opinion not of sound mind, and so there would be no guarantee that "winning" Ukraine would stop his activities, in fact I think it would spur him on. It is evident that he does not care about the human cost - Russians are just cannon fodder - nor about any advice his military advisers might risk giving him that went against the empire building.