Ukraine

[french frank]

Was just about to post here!

We cannot know whether Putin genuinely believes in a military threat which is manifestly absurd. However, it is certainly very convenient for him to be able to pretend that Russia is under a range of existential threats in order to justify his illiberal and increasingly dictatorial regime. I agree that it is very hard to understand how far he believes what is being said across the Russian state-sponsored media as well as in his own pronouncements.

And in response to rfg's comment about VP fearing a 'cultural threat' from the West - yes, that might include the spread of a demand for democracy! Will sending actors, opera singers and circus performers to the frontline be enough to boost the (apparently) flagging morale of the Russian troops, I wonder.

Add: And from Freedman's article, this quote from Paul Berman on the 'threat' to Putin-style Russia:

‘ ... a fear that warm principles of liberal philosophy and republican practices from the West, drifting eastward, will collide with the icy clouds of the Russian winter, and violent storms will break out, and nothing will survive. It is, in short, a belief that dangers to the Russian state are external and ideological, instead of internal and structural.’

[Bella Kemp]

One reads often that Russia is running out of weapons to bomb Ukrainian power plants, but this never seems to be backed up by evidence - frequently after reading such a report, news comes in that Russia has launched several dozen of these missiles at such and such a power plant. Are there numbers to be had? Why can't Russia keep up such bombing for years? Sending a bomb over is far less politically damaging than losing on the battlefield. Such actions are, of course, more likely to be counter-productive: the hatred that Ukrainians feel for the aggressors will only fuel their determination to defeat Putin and his gangsters.

[Frances_iom]

The reports were something like 4 or 5 of about 20 such drones got thru and caused significant damage - it's difficult to hide a power station or switch yard - my own guess is that the damage done will cost significantly more to repair than the cost of 4 or 5 drones needed for one to reach a target. Ukraine can be bombed back not quite to the stone age but almost certainly to the pre industrial age in all major cities. I think it was the Estonian delegate to NATO who supported Ukraine being given weapons that could hit Russia as at the moment causing this damage costs nothing to the agressor- in fact the higher oil price has probably boosted Russia's earnings and there will be enough states who will turn a blind eye to evasion of Western sanctions.

[Historian]

One reads often that Russia is running out of weapons to bomb Ukrainian power plants, but this never seems to be backed up by evidence - frequently after reading such a report, news comes in that Russia has launched several dozen of these missiles at such and such a power plant. Are there numbers to be had? Why can't Russia keep up such bombing for years? Sending a bomb over is far less politically damaging than losing on the battlefield. Such actions are, of course, more likely to be counter-productive: the hatred that Ukrainians feel for the aggressors will only fuel their determination to defeat Putin and his gangsters.

There is a difference between stocks of missiles running low - which is what is happening - and running out altogether. Most of the more advanced missiles have been used up so Russia resorts to using earlier types which are less accurate. There are various figures available for Russian missile stocks before the start of the war, but there is no way of knowing exactly how many Russia has left. Putin will also be very careful to keep back some of the more advanced weapons in case of unforeseen difficulties. Although Russia is able to produce some missiles these are already being used, which would not be the case if they still had ample stocks. The missiles attack a wide range of targets in the hope of finding a way through the Ukrainian defences. These are slowly improving and most of the missiles are dealt with before they reach their target. However, Ukraine is a very large country and it is not possible to defend everywhere. It is indeed possible that Russia can continue its intermittent attacks on the Ukrainian power supply for some time, but this will not affect the military outcome. You are correct that the campaign is counter-productive in terms of its effect on Ukraine's morale.

I should perhaps re-emphasise that these targets do not have a specific military value: Russia seems unable to conduct pin point strikes on military targets and is reduced to terror attacks on civilians. Furthermore we should remember that Russia continues to fight hard in Ukraine, especially around Bakhmut, with losses estimated at around 500 troops killed every day.

[french frank]

Although Russia is able to produce some missiles these are already being used, which would not be the case if they still had ample stocks.

The Moscow Times reports the US claim that North Korea is supplying millions of artillery shells. It would also be capable of supplying missiles.

“Russia has no idea what the quality control in North Korea is like," William Alberque, the director of arms control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told The Moscow Times."And if there’s one place I have a little bit less faith in quality control than Russia, it would be North Korea.”

[Historian]

The Moscow Times reports the US claim that North Korea is supplying millions of artillery shells. It would also be capable of supplying missiles.

“Russia has no idea what the quality control in North Korea is like," William Alberque, the director of arms control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told The Moscow Times."And if there’s one place I have a little bit less faith in quality control than Russia, it would be North Korea.”

I will agree with you about the artillery shells, although I wouldn't like to be the one firing them (for the reason quoted). However, the missiles mentioned - the Tochka-U - while effective on larger targets, are not accurate enough to give the Russians back the capability which they have mostly used up. Furthermore, Russia is still suffering losses from Ukraine's HIMARS and other rocket systems and their Lines of Communication have been stretched by such attacks and other losses e.g. the damage to the Kertch Bridge. I would be even more sanguine if the West had managed to increase their own production of ammunition more rapidly.

Qualitatively Ukraine still as the advantage, which is all to the good. However, they could do with a proper freeze in order to make their offensives more successful.

[french frank]

However, the missiles mentioned - the Tochka-U - while effective on larger targets, are not accurate enough to give the Russians back the capability which they have mostly used up.

At least it's a cheering thought!

[DracoM]

Beginning to wonder what the mood can be / has to be in the Putin Military set-up at the mo?
Deep embarrassment? Surprise? Dangerous Anger?
Because the series of VERY, very publicly revealed and ongoing miscalculations, blunders, screw-ups in the war machine of a supposedly almighty World Power.......?
I mean, erm....backstage, what do you think is going on?

[Serial_Apologist]

Beginning to wonder what the mood can be / has to be in the Putin Military set-up a the mo?
Deep embarrassment? Surprise? Dangerous Anger?
Because the series of VERY, very publicly revealed and ongoing miscalculations, blunders, screw-ups in the war machine of a supposedly almighty World Power.......?
I mean, erm....backstage, what do you think is going on?

From re-watching Adam Curtis's superb 2007 series What Has Happened to Our Idea of Freedom? the other day I got some idea of the collectively entrenched mindset of the Russian people following the West's setting up of the post-Gorbachev era state to fail. It seems to me that it's there that one has to look for whether that depth and breadth of defeatism can be overcome and how that might happen, rather than in the way their armed forces look upon it all. Through life I have often wondered what on earth could have persuaded the German people to allow Hitler to be forced upon them in the early 1930s, believing that the coming of TV would make such an outcome unthinkable in our era. Now I am beginning to understand, if not identify, as a similar mindset seems to have taken possession of large swathes of other populations - in Brazil, Hungary, the United States, post-Brexit Britain, even Sweden, of all places. This wasn't what Fukuyama meant by "the end of history", but one hopes people will wake up, and the sooner the better, for all our sakes.

[french frank]

Recruitment by bribery? From 'elite' to expendable cannon fodder - or take your chance?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64050719

Ukraine's mercenaries get the death penalty if captured - Russian mercenaries? But we don't - can't - expect the same standards from both sides. Meanwhile Trump Jnr describes Zelensky as a 'welfare queen'. Can they go much lower?

[JasonPalmer]

Proxy war, costly for NATO but cheaper than fighting in NATO territory.

[Serial_Apologist]

I am beginning to wonder if Putin won't be satisfied his war effort is complete until the entirely of Ukraine has been reduced to an eco-cordon santaire wilderness, uninhabitable to humans and most other species.

[Frances_iom]

I am beginning to wonder if Putin won't be satisfied his war effort is complete until the entirely of Ukraine has been reduced to an eco-cordon santaire wilderness, uninhabitable to humans and most other species.

It is how he has acted for example in Syria -

[Dave2002]

Here is an interesting and disturbing article by someone who not everyone will like, and in a journal which many treat similarly - https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-push-for-peace

The discussion about autonomous weapons and weapon systems is of real concern.

[Frances_iom]

Here is an interesting and disturbing article by someone who not everyone will like,...

Who will police any agreement - Russia has already broken the tripartite agreement whereby Ukraine gave back all the nukes on its territory in exchange for guarantees and even allowed Russia to keep its Black Sea port in Crimea (from where the 'little green men' emerged). Would Ukraine sensibly agree in the future to host a Russian naval base now with a repairable supply bridge that blocks access to many of its ports. Too much blood has been spent, the Russians have demonstrated that they will not abide by any guarantees and the West can only police one by guaranteeing that its nuclear deterrence will also safeguard Ukraine, a major demand given that Ukraine will still have a significant Russian population and its record post the fall of the USSR is one of a corrupt nation - the cost of rebuilding should in justice fall on Russia but that won't come about until pigs fly over the Urals.