Ukraine

[richardfinegold]

Reports here are that Ukraine won’t attack across the Dnipro, due to the onset of Winter and the now shortened Russian supply lines there.
The spin of an orderly retreat from Kherson may be as much for Russian internal consumption as from trying to look good in the West. It is interesting that the announcement of the retreat was not made by Putin but by his underlings. There is a need to disassociate the Tsar from any failure.
The energy situation will now be critical. The long brutal winter there will impact the Ukrainians more than the Russians. The Russians presumably will step up their attacks on Ukrainian energy supplies

[duncan]

Well, maybe this thread has become a bit of a silo but I am still a little surprised at the (seemingly) very limited interest in another stunning victory for Ukraine.

Please do not believe the Russian propaganda which appears on many news outlets. This was not a 'highly successful withdrawal', it was effectively a rout with heavy losses of men and equipment for Russia.

There are reports of heavy Russian pressure around Bakhmut, but that does nothing to offset another city that was supposedly 'forever Russia'. Hopefully those interested will watch one or two videos of liberated Ukrainians, not just in Kherson City but in many other villages and settlements. They are reminiscent of scenes from the Second World War.

Loosing Kherson is also a tremendous psychological blow. The ultranationalists are not happy and increasingly vocal about it (Daily Mirror).

[french frank]

Loosing Kherson is also a tremendous psychological blow. The ultranationalists are not happy and increasingly vocal about it (Daily Mirror).

Yes, and the so-called "war bloggers" and war-mongers are pretty angry at the failure too, not about the war itself. Or will this be revolution again? The younger generation and others who are increasingly learning the truth about the war won't share those views.

[Bryn]

Loosing Kherson is also a tremendous psychological blow. The ultranationalists are not happy and increasingly vocal about it (Daily Mirror).

Just a word to the wise, that Daily Mirror page linked to has crashed my browser (Firefox) every time I have attempted to access it. It could be the vagaries of this Snapdragon-powered laptop, but maybe not.

[Ein Heldenleben]

Reports here are that Ukraine won’t attack across the Dnipro, due to the onset of Winter and the now shortened Russian supply lines there.
The spin of an orderly retreat from Kherson may be as much for Russian internal consumption as from trying to look good in the West. It is interesting that the announcement of the retreat was not made by Putin but by his underlings. There is a need to disassociate the Tsar from any failure.
The energy situation will now be critical. The long brutal winter there will impact the Ukrainians more than the Russians. The Russians presumably will step up their attacks on Ukrainian energy supplies

Not so sure that energy is so critical. What really counts is army and civilian morale and supply of arms and competent trained soldiers and on that count the Ukrainians are ahead. Everything so far points to the Russians really having no stomach for it. When both sides do you end up in a WW1 impasse. What’s really suprised me are the speed of gains - or retaking of territory the Ukrainians have made . We didn’t really win WW1 : the Germans just packed it in. WW2 we (including of course the Russians ) only won through brutal attrition and massive degradation of German infrastructure. Their morale only really collapsed in the final few weeks.

[french frank]

NWhat really counts is army and civilian morale and supply of arms and competent trained soldiers

Yes, and raging about the losses and toppling Putin doesn't actual provide more trained troops and arms. Russia still goes through the ritual of 'democracy' and I don't see Dugin or Prigozhin conjuring up organised political backing. Prigozhin was a pro-Putin oligarch, but I suspect many other oligarchs were less pro-Putin than not wanting to suffer the consequences of being anti. Is anyone in the military ready to step into the vacuum? But it comes back to getting boots on the ground and weaponry if they want to reverse the situation in Ukraine. What happens to the Trumpites Putinites who trusted Putin himself? Where would they go?

[Historian]

It still seems complicated and difficult to work out

Also do we really know what's going on? Above you described the Russian retreat as a rout - but is there any solid evidence for that?

Wars are complicated: there are multiple fronts even in this war between two countries and many different aspects to consider. I tend to concentrate on the military side of things but this is not conducted in a political vacuum. However, currently - and for several months - Ukraine is winning. How complete their eventual victory will be I cannot say, but I think it unlikely in the extreme that Russia will reverse the tide of defeat.

Kherson has not been a rout on the scale of Kharkiv, Kupyansk etc. Russia seems to have learned some lessons and extricated most of its personnel and equipment. However, it still took significant losses during the withdrawal and (as someone else once said) "Wars are not won by evacuations". I have seen reliable evidence of Russian equipment losses over the last few days. Do not believe Russian claims that not a single piece of equipment was left behind, that all troops were evacuated, that all ammunition and supply dumps were destroyed during the course of the carefully planned withdrawal etc. etc. The real damage was done (as mentioned above) before the decision to run away, because that is what Russia has emphatically done.

We do not know everything which has happened, especially as one side (Ukraine) is very careful about 'Operations Security' at certain points and always careful what it reveals, whereas the other lies.

However, if anyone has sufficient time and interest I would be happy to direct them to a number of websites/twitter feeds which will give them huge amounts of (mostly) accurate information, sometimes effectively in real time. Sometimes this information is subsequently found to be not entirely accurate, but most of the time it is surprisingly faithful to what actually happened.

[Historian]

We didn’t really win WW1 : the Germans just packed it in.

While I am in agreement with most of your analysis I can't go along with this bit I'm afraid.

From the first day of the Battle of Amiens (8th August - 'the Black Day of the German Army') onwards, the German military position on the Western Front began to collapse. They made no further offensive moves and were pushed back regularly by a series of Allied counter-offensives sometimes termed the 'Hundred Days' offensive. On September 29th Hindenburg and Ludendorff explained to the Kaiser that Germany would have to seek an armistice. By 11th November the Germans had been effectively expelled from French territory and were in full retreat in Belgium. I won't deny that some German units put up a strong defence in places (e.g. the crossing of the Sambre-Oise Canal on 4th November which led to the death of Wilfred Owen among many others), but Germany was definitely on the run.

I won't deny that several factors came together to cause the Germans to pack it in (effects of the Blockade and associated civil unrest, increasing support from the USA, collapse of the other Central Powers) but the Germany Army was, at great cost, eventually defeated decisively.

[HighlandDougie]

Well, maybe this thread has become a bit of a silo but I am still a little surprised at the (seemingly) very limited interest in another stunning victory for Ukraine.

Please do not believe the Russian propaganda which appears on many news outlets. This was not a 'highly successful withdrawal', it was effectively a rout with heavy losses of men and equipment for Russia.

There are reports of heavy Russian pressure around Bakhmut, but that does nothing to offset another city that was supposedly 'forever Russia'. Hopefully those interested will watch one or two videos of liberated Ukrainians, not just in Kherson City but in many other villages and settlements. They are reminiscent of scenes from the Second World War.

Not so in terms of interest in what is happening. Until two/three days ago, it was difficult for the interested observer to glean much information on what was happening, given the news blackout on the part of Ukraine, which is/was entirely understandable. Against all my better judgement, I've signed up to Twitter as a source of information - or not - on the ground. To be taken with sometimes large pinches of salt but nonetheless a pretty essential source of information. Anyway, deeply grateful for Historian's posts. I found today's ISW update to be particularly interesting:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-12

and this from Jack Watling:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/13/russias-loss-of-kherson-signals-change-in-putins-strategy-ukraine

[Dave2002]

It is really hard to figure this out. It seems that perhaps Putin is considerably less bad than some of the crazier people in Russia. What on earth do they think they want?

OK - as long as they're seemingly willing to send out other people to die for some utterly insane ideological "beliefs".

Or am I misreading this?

[french frank]

It is really hard to figure this out. It seems that perhaps Putin is considerably less bad than some of the crazier people in Russia. What on earth do they think they want?

OK - as long as they're seemingly willing to send out other people to die for some utterly insane ideological "beliefs".

I can't say what they want other than victory for Russia against the western enemy to maintain their wealth and influence. Clearly a leader like Putin is going to appeal to those even more extreme than himself. Dugin had already been labelled a fascist. Prigozhin is happy to finance others (be they 'Nazis' or civilian prisoners) to go and fight and the politicians and their placemen are a long way from the front. The closed, authoritarian regime has bred the kind of unquestioning troops who will do whatever it takes to defeat the enemy, and the active generals do nothing to stop them since they have the same vested interests.

[Dave2002]

I can't say what they want other than victory for Russia against the western enemy to maintain their wealth and influence. Clearly a leader like Putin is going to appeal to those even more extreme than himself. Dugin had already been labelled a fascist. Prigozhin is happy to finance others (be they 'Nazis' or civilian prisoners) to go and fight and the politicians and their placemen are a long way from the front. The closed, authoritarian regime has bred the kind of unquestioning troops who will do whatever it takes to defeat the enemy, and the active generals do nothing to stop them since they have the same vested interests.

The question then arises - 'What is Russia?"

[french frank]

The question then arises - 'What is Russia?"

What Russia says it is. All the way.

[Dave2002]

What Russia says it is. All the way.

Indeed. I am now declaring the area around my house a republic, all the small patch that it is. I will defend it against any "invader". I will destroy anything which threatens my domain. I will actively go out and completely eradicate any opposition, using a scorched earth policy, so that nobody else can benefit. When I've done that I will take over the world!

[eighthobstruction]

....onward....