Ukraine

[french frank]

Given the rhetoric at the time of the early advance on Kyiv, when the apparent aim was to overthrow the government, install a puppet regime and occupy the whole country, it's hard to see what Putin can agree to, short of total conquest of the 'Russian' state of Ukraine'; partial victory has to be set against what Russia has lost. He doesn't need to bother himself about the devastating loss of troops unless that becomes a domestic problem for him.

And maybe, just maybe, the domestic problem will grow enough to, well, maybe see the end of Putin.

"According to Agafonov’s estimates, only 130 draftees out of the 570 survived the Ukrainian attack, which would make it the deadliest known incident involving conscripts since the start of the mobilisation drive at the end of September.

“And many who survived are losing their minds after what happened. No one wants to go back,” Agafonov said.

The incident points to Russia’s willingness to throw hundreds of ill-prepared conscripts on to the frontline in Ukraine’s east, where some of the heaviest fighting has been taking place, in an effort to stem Kyiv’s advances.

There is growing anger in Russia as more coffins return from Ukraine, bringing home the remains of conscripts.

Some of the details surrounding last week’s shelling could not be independently verified. But the Guardian spoke to a second soldier, as well as two family members of surviving soldiers, who gave similar accounts."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/07/we-were-completely-exposed-russian-conscripts-say-hundreds-killed-in-attack

It's appalling to have to admit that one hopes the reports are true, Russian lives lost being a tragedy too.

[oddoneout]

The BBC is still reporting and commenting, but is anyone in the UK bothered now?

I still am. This article is worth reading.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63471505

So am I, but I'm not sure that I should have watched this https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001f0j7

[french frank]

Russian troops ordered to pull out of Kherson - "supplies cannot be maintained".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63573387

[Historian]

Russian troops ordered to pull out of Kherson - "supplies cannot be maintained".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63573387

After a tough fight Russia has bowed to the military logic of trying to fight a better-equipped and supplied enemy in a constricted space, with an army losing more and more experienced men and finding that hastily-trained conscripts will not do the same job. If the Russians are very lucky then they might get away without a total rout and huge casualties, but it will be very difficult to mount an effective rearguard action with Ukraine presumably putting them under as much pressure - and artillery fire - as possible.

As discussed before, the decision to hold Kherson was made on political grounds by Putin. Presumably he will now be looking for the correct person to blame.

This is another big win for Ukraine, after tough fighting and heavy casualties on both sides. However, Russia comes away with nothing except a lengthening casualty list and the prospect of trying to hold back Ukraine's next counter-offensive while trying to cope with many of the same disadvantages.

[Frances_iom]

... However, Russia comes away with nothing except a lengthening casualty list and the prospect of trying to hold back Ukraine's next counter-offensive while trying to cope with many of the same disadvantages.

Maybe Putin was expecting his friend running the US republican party to gain enough blocking power and pull the plug on Ukraine.

[french frank]

If the Russians are very lucky then they might get away without a total rout and huge casualties, but it will be very difficult to mount an effective rearguard action

Though some of the Ukrainians express a fear of reprisal in the form of the heavy bombardment of what's left of the civilian areas of the city.

[Frances_iom]

Though some of the Ukrainians express a fear of reprisal in the form of the heavy bombardment of what's left of the civilian areas of the city.

that would be SOP (standard operating procedure) for the Russians - based on "if we can't have it, you will not get it either" - also it just requires quantity rather than quality of munitions

[Frances_iom]

Just to recommend a very recent program on R4 Ukraine: War and Words (https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001dxtq) - helps to elucidate the division between Ukrainian and Russian speakers exploited by Putin with it would appear near total ignorance of the history.

[Historian]

Though some of the Ukrainians express a fear of reprisal in the form of the heavy bombardment of what's left of the civilian areas of the city.

Yes, that is a possibility - there are already reports of shelling around Beryslav - however surely better to have liberated Kherson than not (I realise that is not what you were arguing ff). Furthermore, Russia will continue to lose heavily as its artillery is outranged and heavily outgunned by Ukraine's artillery.

[Historian]

Well, maybe this thread has become a bit of a silo but I am still a little surprised at the (seemingly) very limited interest in another stunning victory for Ukraine.

Please do not believe the Russian propaganda which appears on many news outlets. This was not a 'highly successful withdrawal', it was effectively a rout with heavy losses of men and equipment for Russia.

There are reports of heavy Russian pressure around Bakhmut, but that does nothing to offset another city that was supposedly 'forever Russia'. Hopefully those interested will watch one or two videos of liberated Ukrainians, not just in Kherson City but in many other villages and settlements. They are reminiscent of scenes from the Second World War.

[french frank]

Please do not believe the Russian propaganda which appears on many news outlets. This was not a 'highly successful withdrawal', it was effectively a rout with heavy losses of men and equipment for Russia.

I missed that bit. I noted that as yet there seemed to be no reports of landmines or booby traps left. And I certainly didn't take this as a 'successful' redeployment by the Russians - more a tactical getting out while the going was good. The news seemed to be that they were digging in on the east bank of the river though?

[Historian]

I missed that bit.

It may not be wholly accurate...

.. in that I don't yet know how successful Russian efforts to evacuate their forces were. They have been very busy since mid October shifting men and equipment east over the Dnipro, albeit taking losses as they did so. So, we may not see the wholesale loss of equipment and large casualty figures as we did for the offensive in the north-west. The 'rearguard' may have consisted primarily of less-experienced troops from the recent 'partial mobilisation' whom the Russian army evidently felt no obligation to avoid sacrificing in recent weeks.

On the other hand it is very clear from numerous sources that Russia has suffered very heavily in terms of experienced personnel and equipment, neither of which can be effectively replaced. Some of the best remaining Russian units have effectively been reduced to cadre strength. The Russians can reconstitute them with newly-mobilised conscripts will limited or no experience, but this will not restore their fighting power. In everything but numbers - which count for much less in modern warfare - the Russian Armed Forces continue to be a wasting asset.

Putin's invaders are now in the unenviable position of trying to defend an overlong perimeter, with waning forces running out of key equipment, supplies and ammunition, waiting to see where Ukraine will strike next.

And Winter is coming.

[Dave2002]

It is still difficult to know how this will play out. Dnipro is about 250 miles from Luhansk, which is west of the Russian border. It's hard to figure out the terrain from obvious online sources, though it might be fairly flat.

[Historian]

It is still difficult to know how this will play out. Dnipro is about 250 miles from Luhansk, which is west of the Russian border. It's hard to figure out the terrain from obvious online sources, though it might be fairly flat.

Possible next steps:

1. North west: Ukraine continues to close up to Svatove and then takes it. This may or may not lead to a considerable further advance east to the last key Russian communications hub Starobilsk. Either way, Russia's logistics problems become much worse because their supply lines from Belgorod (inside Russia) are either damaged or ,if (when?) Starobilsk falls, cut. The terrain favours Ukraine attacking from the west with a series of ridge lines which give more advantages to an advance in this direction. Ukraine could clear the north-western sector and then head south to threaten the Russia hold on the rest of Luhansk (and beyond). An alternative way forward in this area would be towards Kreminna.

2. Donetsk front: Ukraine is under renewed pressure here. I would have thought a full offensive was unlikely, but a renewed Ukrainian attack using reinforcements released by the fall of Kherson would push the Russians back. The towns and cities around here have been fought over for much: I think both sides would find it hard to move with any great speed in this area.

3. Kherson front: a forced crossing of the Dnipro river is unlikely. Ukraine would benefit from defending the river line and using 'spare' forces elsewhere. Russian supply difficulties remain. The flat terrain to the west of Kherson was actually a problem as it gave more advantages to the defenders. When successfully defended, rivers can cause huge problems as the Russians found earlier in the war.

4. Zaporizhzhia front: this would be the most fruitful for Ukraine as a relatively short advance would capture the important road junction of Polohy and the crucial rail network going through Tokmak. This, in turn, would lead to massive supply problems for all Russia forces to the west. If things went well then Ukraine might even move on to take the southern supply hub of Melitopol which would threaten the entire Russian position in the south. The terrain does not offer too many problems, however Russian forces are there in strength (at least in numbers, quality is less certain), and certain areas will be heavily defended.

I anticipate that Ukraine will continue with large-scale offensives during the winter months. Their strategy has been to probe for areas of weakness while systematically degrading the Russian armed forces and their supply lines. This has been very successful and I expect this success to continue.

[Dave2002]

It still seems complicated and difficult to work out

Also do we really know what's going on? Above you described the Russian retreat as a rout - but is there any solid evidence for that?