Ukraine

[DracoM]

<< unless there is a huge change Ukraine will continue to win this war. >>

.change will be if Russia abandons even a scintilla of restraint and goes very hard to flatten Ukraine infrastructure. They can, we know they can, so.............?

[french frank]

<< unless there is a huge change Ukraine will continue to win this war. >>

.change will be if Russia abandons even a scintilla of restraint and goes very hard to flatten Ukraine infrastructure. They can, we know they can, so.............?

Except: "Russia Finally Admits Weapons Shortage in Ukraine War" from 3 days ago. The savage attacks over the last week or so may be an attempt to 'finish off the job' quickly. Again.

[Historian]

<< unless there is a huge change Ukraine will continue to win this war. >>

.change will be if Russia abandons even a scintilla of restraint and goes very hard to flatten Ukraine infrastructure. They can, we know they can, so.............?

To be blunt, no: their attacks on Ukraine's power (and other) infrastructure will not affect the military outcome.

This holds true even if Russia were not running out of the weapons they need to carry out such attacks, as ff points out. You will have noted that these attacks come in occasional 'waves': this is so because Russia is unable to supply a prolonged bombardment. This is particularly the case with regards to the more effective cruise missiles. It may be that Iran will be able to assist Russia with some missiles, however this will be more than offset by increasingly effective Ukrainian air defence. In the most recent attacks over 85% of the Russian missiles were shot down before they reached their target. Ukraine has consistently shown an ability to get the most out of the weapons supplied and the West has at last started sending more advanced air defence systems. Like everything else Russia has tried, these attacks will become less and less effective.

This is not to deny that Ukraine's energy infrastructure will be heavily damaged, causing major problems for the civilian population. People will suffer from cold and lack of power: they will have to make a choice of staying where they are or moving either within Ukraine or becoming refugees outside. However, in the same way that aerial bombardment (and the same from ground artillery) has not broken Ukrainian morale the hardship caused will only stiffen their resolve to carry on until victory. If you see what Ukraine has already endured these attacks will not break them.

[Ein Heldenleben]

To be blunt, no: their attacks on Ukraine's power (and other) infrastructure will not affect the military outcome.

This holds true even if Russia were not running out of the weapons they need to carry out such attacks, as ff points out. You will have noted that these attacks come in occasional 'waves': this is so because Russia is unable to supply a prolonged bombardment. This is particularly the case with regards to the more effective cruise missiles. It may be that Iran will be able to assist Russia with some missiles, however this will be more than offset by increasingly effective Ukrainian air defence. In the most recent attacks over 85% of the Russian missiles were shot down before they reached their target. Ukraine has consistently shown an ability to get the most out of the weapons supplied and the West has at last started sending more advanced air defence systems. Like everything else Russia has tried, these attacks will become less and less effective.

This is not to deny that Ukraine's energy infrastructure will be heavily damaged, causing major problems for the civilian population. People will suffer from cold and lack of power: they will have to make a choice of staying where they are or moving either within Ukraine or becoming refugees outside. However, in the same way that aerial bombardment (and the same from ground artillery) has not broken Ukrainian morale the hardship caused will only stiffen their resolve to carry on until victory. If you see what Ukraine has already endured these attacks will not break them.

History shows indiscriminate bombing doesn’t win wars e,g, the area bombing of Germany in WW2 and the US bombing of north Vietnam . Despite the millions of tons of bombs dropped on Germany I think it lost only max about 30 percent of its manufacturing capacity. To win a war you need to seize territory and that means boots on the ground. And even then you haven’t won it till all resistance is suppressed. The best the Russians can hope for is an uneasy stalemate and at the moment even that looks unlikely.

[french frank]

A Russian missile shot sown by Ukraine has fallen on a village in Moldova, just over the border on the Dnistr river. Moldova has aimed a strongly worded condemnation of Russia:

"These attacks, which further escalate the security situation, are a flagrant violation of the international humanitarian law which prohibits attacks on civilians and their infrastructure," the foreign ministry said in a statement.

"The attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure cause enormous economic and social damage to the entire European continent, including citizens of Moldova, who feel impact of the war [raging] in our neighbourhood," it added.

An interesting development as Moldova has continued to maintain its constitutional neutrality.

[Historian]

A Russian missile shot sown by Ukraine has fallen on a village in Moldova, just over the border on the Dnistr river. Moldova has aimed a strongly worded condemnation of Russia:

...

An interesting development as Moldova has continued to maintain its constitutional neutrality.

As you know ff, Moldova has its own 'frozen conflict' with the Russian-supported region of Transnistria. I get the feeling that Moldova feels less worried about the spectre of Russia joining up overland from the Crimea now. This is just one of the many unintended consequences of Putin's decision to invade Ukraine. There are other potential issues e.g. land taken from Georgia, disputes over territory between Azerbaijan and Armenia and a smouldering conflict between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Russia's influence is demonstrably waning in these areas, with countries ;looking for more reliable friends or taking the opportunity to renew 'unfinished business'. We may well be entering a period of instability in the area around Russia's borders, maybe even within the Russian Federation itself.

[french frank]

I get the feeling that Moldova feels less worried about the spectre of Russia joining up overland from the Crimea now.

There's a long Wikipedia article on the Transnistria conflict - not as well referenced as Wiki usually demands, though my feeling is that as long as there's no obvious bias such articles are in fact usually well-informed. I was surprised that only a third of the population appear to be ethnic Russians, so it looks strange that the pro-annexation cause is purportedly so well supported.

[Historian]

There's a long Wikipedia article on the Transnistria conflict - not as well referenced as Wiki usually demands, though my feeling is that as long as there's no obvious bias such articles are in fact usually well-informed. I was surprised that only a third of the population appear to be ethnic Russians, so it looks strange that the pro-annexation cause is purportedly so well supported.

I think the ethnic Russian minority in Transnistria has, or possibly had, a disproportionate influence because of the presence of Russian troops in Transnistria: they are, of course, still there (allegedly as a peace-keeping force). Putin has always been happy to leverage ill-treatment (either real or imagined) of Russians to increase his influence anywhere he can. Russian military support made the difference during the conflict there from 1990 to (mainly) 1992. Putin has an effective control on Moldova while he controls Transnistria (as I am sure you already know).

[french frank]

Putin effectively has an effective control on Moldova while he controls Transnistria (as I am sure you already know).

I'm sure that makes Moldova concerned to tread very carefully.

[Historian]

I'm sure that makes Moldova concerned to tread very carefully.

I believe that Ukraine has kindly offered 'assistance' if Moldova wishes to deal with this problem. Not sure Putin's hold over Moldova is as secure as it was.

[Dave2002]

The BBC is still reporting and commenting, but is anyone in the UK bothered now?

I still am. This article is worth reading.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63471505

[Cockney Sparrow]

I find "Unspun World...." (BBC2 TV) rewarding to watch - last night:

"John Simpson, in discussion with the BBC's unparalleled range of experts across the world, looks at what life is like for Ukrainians under Russian occupation. Ahead of the next big international climate summit John analyses whether it is already too late to save our planet, and he examines the potential impact of the US mid-term elections on the Biden Presidency"

It has regularly featured various aspect of the Ukraine conflict.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001dslx/unspun-world-with-john-simpson-series-1-02112022

[Serial_Apologist]

The BBC is still reporting and commenting, but is anyone in the UK bothered now?

I still am. This article is worth reading.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63471505

Indeed so - it is a reminder that the one option the Russian people were deprived of after the fall of Communism {sic} was grass-roots up socialism. Instead of rebuilding Russia and the states still under its aegis bottom-up, sending environmental specialists in to help decontaminate waterways etc and encouragement to inspire people collectively to put their lives together, the powers that were in the west insisted on the demands of foreign capital investment and put it all into the hands of the oligarchs. It's little surprise Stalin has been rehabilitated in the minds of many - there was a TV documentary The Red God on his popularity in Georgia which I have kept on tape. Stalin many have collectivised the Soviet economy with brute force, but that collectivisation at least enabled the productive base to be re-assigned for arms production at a moment's notice, which saved the USSR in WW2. Capitalism in crisis, has always gone for fascism as a last resort, whether of the populist or military dictatorship kinds, and one would either have to be asleep or wilfully in denial that this is what the present situation worldwide is all about.

[Historian]

Professor Lawrence Freedman's latest article focuses on why Putin is so unwilling to negotiate and instead aims to continue the war in the hope that 'something will turn up.

The comments below the article are generally worth reading, being rather more thoughtful than reader comments elsewhere.

I would disagree with the reader who believes that Ukraine is running out of ammunition, or that the Russian forces in the south are having an easy time of it part from around Kherson.

[french frank]

Professor Lawrence Freedman's latest article focuses on why Putin is so unwilling to negotiate and instead aims to continue the war in the hope that 'something will turn up.

The comments below the article are generally worth reading, being rather more thoughtful than reader comments elsewhere.

I would disagree with the reader who believes that Ukraine is running out of ammunition, or that the Russian forces in the south are having an easy time of it part from around Kherson.

Interesting that there have been those who have blamed the US for deliberately dragging out the war in order to weaken Russia as far as possible - in spite of all the deaths and damage suffered by the Ukrainians. I'm more persuaded that it's Putin who wants the war to drag on if he can see the alternative is having to admit to failure - and "something might turn up". Given the rhetoric at the time of the early advance on Kyiv, when the apparent aim was to overthrow the government, install a puppet regime and occupy the whole country, it's hard to see what Putin can agree to, short of total conquest of the 'Russian' state of Ukraine'; partial victory has to be set against what Russia has lost. He doesn't need to bother himself about the devastating loss of troops unless that becomes a domestic problem for him.