Ukraine

[Historian]

I long ago gave up trying to work out what Putin actually means. He is on the side of Humpty Dumpty in Alice in though the Looking Glass:

“When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.’

’The question is,’ said Alice, ‘whether you can make words mean so many different things.’

’The question is,’ said Humpty Dumpty, ‘which is to be master — that’s all.” [My emphasis]

I have been remiss in not keeping up to date with Professor Lawrence Freedman's writings on the war. From September 28th comes https://samf.substack.com/p/cannon-f...medium=reader2.

Entitled 'Cannon fodder: What difference will mobilisation make to the war?' it is still very relevant. I will add further articles soon.

[Historian]

Next Lawrence Freedman article - relatively short this time - is on Putin's speech 'annexing' part of Ukraine and the subsequent loss of occupied Lyman.

[Maclintick]

I’ve only just picked up on this...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/16/russian-troops-kill-ukrainian-musician-yuriy-kerpatenko-for-refusing-role-in-kherson-concert

[Bryn]

I’ve only just picked up on this...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.the...herson-concert

Appallingly, what we have come to expect from Putin's followers. Yet still, there are those supposedly of the 'left' who expend their ire on those nations supporting Ukraine militarily, rather than putting their energies into exposing and combatting the fascist Putin and his followers.

[Historian]

I’ve only just picked up on this...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.the...herson-concert

A brave artist who paid the price for resistance. There will be many more victims to discover when Ukraine is fully freed.

[french frank]

Appallingly, what we have come to expect from Putin's followers. Yet still, there are those supposedly of the 'left' who expend their ire on those nations supporting Ukraine militarily, rather than putting their energies into exposing and combatting the fascist Putin and his followers.

I understand the argument: a negotiated settlement would save hundreds, probably thousands, of lives. But if one takes that view, one has to explain what Ukraine should concede - and what Russia could be prepared to concede, because that's what negotiations involve. What could Putin offer that would be acceptable? As the Russians commit more crimes, the only acceptable offer he could make is total withdrawal from every bit of illegally annexed territory. Even then nothing could compensate for the destruction he's caused.

[Petrushka]

I understand the argument: a negotiated settlement would save hundreds, probably thousands, of lives. But if one takes that view, one has to explain what Ukraine should concede - and what Russia could be prepared to concede, because that's what negotiations involve. What could Putin offer that would be acceptable? As the Russians commit more crimes, the only acceptable offer he could make is total withdrawal from every bit of illegally annexed territory. Even then nothing could compensate for the destruction he's caused.

In a negotiated peace, how could Putin's word be trusted? Signed treaties will have no meaning for him. This is one reason why there will be no negotiated peace. That ship has sailed. Too much damage has been done for Ukraine to consider it acceptable either.

[Dave2002]

A brave artist who paid the price for resistance. There will be many more victims to discover when Ukraine is fully freed.

Really sad, but coming to be just about what we expect from these thugs and barbarians and their “master”.
Appalling.

Yuriy Kerpatenko RIP

[richardfinegold]

In a negotiated peace, how could Putin's word be trusted? Signed treaties will have no meaning for him. This is one reason why there will be no negotiated peace. That ship has sailed. Too much damage has been done for Ukraine to consider it acceptable either.

Fool me once…
I’ve been reading about Russia sending jailed prisoners and Neo Nazi Paramilitaries into Ukraine to help “De Nazify” the place

[Petrushka]

Lawrence Freedman's latest article is a lengthy but excellent read. https://samf.substack.com/p/general-...ks-at-the-door

The first snows of winter should be falling in Ukraine and Russia any time now, if they haven't done so already. It would be a massive irony if this time it's the Russian army that can't supply its soldiers with adequate winter clothing!

[Historian]

In a negotiated peace, how could Putin's word be trusted? Signed treaties will have no meaning for him. This is one reason why there will be no negotiated peace. That ship has sailed. Too much damage has been done for Ukraine to consider it acceptable either.

Lawrence Freedman considers the history of negotiations re. this conflict in this article Getting to negotiations.

Early in the war Putin was offered a Ukraine excluded from NATO and turned it down: his continued 'maximalist' position - effectively denying Ukraine's right to exist - makes a negotiated settlement effectively impossible without a major change in circumstances.


For the sake of completeness, Freedman's remaining unmentioned article 'Retribution and Regime change' is to be found here.

[french frank]

Early in the war Putin was offered a Ukraine excluded from NATO and turned it down: his continued 'maximalist' position - effectively denying Ukraine's right to exist ...

Which blows a hole through his pretence that the problem for Russia was a Ukraine turning towards the western 'enemy' and thus posing a threat to Russian security.

When Samuel Johnson said: 'Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel' he was not, as James Boswell made clear, referring to the true, diinterested love of one's own country, but to a scoundrel invoking Patriotism as 'a cloak for self-interest'. In a repressive totalitarian state, people lacking information and perspective can easily be deluded that the only narrative they hear is the true one.

[Serial_Apologist]

Which blows a hole through his pretence that the problem for Russia was a Ukraine turning towards the western 'enemy' and thus posing a threat to Russian security.

When Samuel Johnson said: 'Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel' he was not, as James Boswell made clear, referring to the true, diinterested love of one's own country, but to a scoundrel invoking Patriotism as 'a cloak for self-interest'. In a repressive totalitarian state, people lacking information and perspective can easily be deluded that the only narrative they hear is the true one.

The question as to what patriotism actually consists in is rather a vexed one for me. Should I "love" my country purely in the basis that it is where I was born? What is there to "love" about "my" country? Marx was of the view that working class people had no country of their own, and that their interests were objectively identified with the working classes as an international class. I don't particularly like "my own people". A Canadian friend formed the impression that we seemed a vulnerable people by temperament, and that she could see it "in our eyes" - to which I responded that "vulnerability" could be mistaken for "shiftiness" - of the kind where people prefer indirection and ambivalence to giving straight answers. For me the ability to laugh at ourselves comes over more as an insisted upon right to laugh at ourslves we think has in some say been earned - possibly by identification with ruling classes who "succeeded" in creating the huge empire that would guarantee rights without too much struggle. My right to laugh at myself gives you no right to laugh at me unless you're English or British, sort of thing. I identify with those in the past who did nevertheless fight and self-sacrifice for the gains that have made the UK a model civilisation, such as having the vote, the NHS, sex equality etc, and those who died in the ruling classes' wars. But what, those things apart, is so special about Britain, or England, even? Its music, yes; its landscapes and visual variety, yes; it language; yes; much of its architecture too. But I would probably say that of many another country, were I to be living there. The truth is that I have felt more "at home" since returning to the multicultural city that London has become since moving back here in 2004 after a gap of 36 years than at any time in my life - I think I prefer living among foreigners and people of different skin colour and often sexuality than ever I did among "my" people!

[french frank]

The question as to what patriotism actually consists in is rather a vexed one for me. Should I "love" my country purely in the basis that it is where I was born?

I think you've partly answered by saying that 'my country' changes - as you have found after being away. But I think Johnson was focusing more on a scoundrel's last refuge being to appeal to his countrymen's "patriotism". Whoever may or may not feel any love for their own country, it surely can't be denied that Putin's people have swallowed his pronouncements and in spite of their own family members in Ukraine telling them what they know to be true they can't believe that "Russians would behave like that."

But I agree, I don't feel particularly patriotic, certainly not nationalistic and only 'love' a fairly restricted number of aspects, like the English countryside. I don't feel "proud" of my country, or proud to be British.

This seems to be a textbook description of what Dr Johnson was saying:

Before Crimea, people had been supportive of the president, but not particularly engaged. When we asked people how proud they felt of their president, very few people did feel pride. But after Crimea, lots of people felt pride. So you had lots of people who felt joy and emotional attachment to Russia. And this was a big transformation. So it’s possible that Putin drew from this experience the idea that if he could launch a successful war, he could once again capture the hearts and minds of the Russian people.

[Historian]

Tomorrow will, I believe, be the 250th day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I hope forum members will be indulgent if I go on a bit in this post.

In the north: Progress remains slow, made more difficult by the autumn rains and mud. However, Ukraine is slowly moving towards an envelopment of Svatove which is a key road and rail hub for north-eastern Ukraine. Ukraine's armed forces now have fire control over the main highway in this area which will make life more difficult for the Russians: in response the Russians have started to blow up bridges but this is unlikely to affect Ukraine's advance materially. Bearing in mind the more helpful terrain to the east of Svatove this might lead to another of Ukraine's swift advances, although the need to advance along roads, combined with potentially stronger Russian defences may militate against this. The main prize, beyond Svatove, would be the last remaining line of communications route from Belgorod south through Starobilsk. If this falls then Russia will have to re-route most of its logistics which will have major repercussions for the whole of the eastern front of the war.

Ukraine has also been pushing forward in the far north regaining territory to the east of Kupyansk: Putin's 'annexed' Luhansk province is shrinking on a daily basis. I discount any real threat from the direction of Belarus. Lukashenka risks destruction at the hands of his now people if he sends troops into Ukraine. The most Russia could hope for would be to pin some elements of Ukraine's forces to defend against Russian raids.

In the south-east : There are conflicting reports as to Russia's intentions re. the city of Kherson. At present the Russians seem resolved to defend the city. This will not go well for them. Heavily-damaged local and national bridges (no-one knows when the Kerch Bridge will be fully rebuilt despite optimistic pronouncements from Russia) and vulnerable barges mean that Russia's main arm - its artillery - has been rendered much less effective for lack of ammunition. Experienced veteran units have been reduced to a fraction of their former strength and the addition of untrained and, at best, unenthusiastic mobilised semi-civilians will not make up for these losses. However, rather than a well-organised withdrawal Putin seems to have insisted on a 'last-ditch' defence. This has meant heavy fighting and heavy casualties for Ukraine. However, the cost for Russia will be much higher as they are in a vulnerable position, with a shrinking perimeter, unable to defend themselves effectively and suffering irreplaceable losses among some of their best units. Russia cannot solve these problems and their eventual defeat in Kherson city is a matter of time: when the collapse comes it will not be pleasant.

In the centre: This has been relatively quiet. I do not know if Ukraine has the reserves to attempt a large-scale attack on the weakened units defending the Russian lines of communication running through Tokmak, let alone to attempt an advance on Melitopol. Ukraine has surprised us before...

Naval news: In September an Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV) was found not far from Sevastopol: The Russians could not stay they had not been warned. Whatever precautions they took (and Russia's Navy has not shone in this conflict), this did not prevent Ukraine inflicting significant damage on at least two Russian ships in the heart of the Russian naval base. I don't know if the Admiral Makarov has become the second Black Sea Fleet flagship to be sunk this year. What I would say is that, for a state without a functioning navy, Ukraine is well ahead on the seas, as well as on land and in the air.

Weather news: In the northern and central sectors the rains will eventually be replaced by snow and ice. This will pose its own challenges and one side is likely to find itself suffering massive logistical problems which it is unable to deal with effectively for the reasons mentioned above. It may be that Ukraine sees the forthcoming freeze as an opportunity. General Winter is not likely to be on Russia's side this time. In the Kherson sector the weather is likely to be less extreme as the influence of the Black Sea moderates the continental climate experienced further north. Whatever the weather, it's unlikely to help Russia much.

Everything is very simple in war, but the simplest thing is difficult. These difficulties accumulate and produce a friction...

The Prussian general and military strategist Clausewitz was writing almost two hundred years ago, however his work is still relevant today. The Russians have proved unable to cope with the increasing 'friction' of war, let alone the growing strength and effectiveness of Ukraine's response.

I do not know what will happen tomorrow, let alone in a week or a month's time. However, unless there is a huge change Ukraine will continue to win this war.