Ukraine

[french frank]

Doesn't look as though a cause has been identified, or if there are any serious claims by warring participants.

Some are being quick to blame the Ukrainians, but I think the Kremlin is in a quandary. If they blame Ukraine for the sinking of the Moskva and the damage to the bridge (plus the earlier strikes on Crimea), they are acknowledging Ukrainian successes aka Russian defeats.

[alywin]

Ah, is that what it is? Watching Putin on TV tonight, I suddenly wondered if it was a set-up job to create something that could be blamed on Ukraine. After all, the deaths aside, it doesn't seem that that much damage has been done, if both road and rail traffic are continuing.

[french frank]

Ah, is that what it is?

I don't know what it is, but seeing the 'reprisals' that were taken on Ukrainian civilian sites last night, I'd say the risk of Godwin's Law being invoked can be ignored.

[french frank]

We know what the motivation is - Putin has said it's revenge for the Kerch bridge bombing. But one military analyst suggests, seemingly correctly, that the retaliation was political, not strategic. That would suggest weakness and desperation, rather than continuing superiority in terms of missiles. How does it square with the GCHQ assessment of 'exhausted troops running low on ammunition'? What to believe?

[duncan]

We know what the motivation is - Putin has said it's revenge for the Kerch bridge bombing. But one military analyst suggests, seemingly correctly, that the retaliation was political, not strategic. That would suggest weakness and desperation, rather than continuing superiority in terms of missiles. How does it square with the GCHQ assessment of 'exhausted troops running low on ammunition'? What to believe?

The Kerch Bridge is highly symbolic of cementing Russia's annexation (or liberation, if you're a Russian ultranationalist) of Crimea. It's strongly linked to Putin himself, he had it built. The ultranationalists demanded revenge and not responding would have been a sign of Putin's weakness and probably fatal for him. The Russian army has had several major battlefield defeats and has been in retreat in the last two months. A response seems beyond the current capacity of his army. His conventional airforce have played very little role throughout the war. The navy are hiding out of range of Ukraine's surface to ship missiles. Putin's only option was to use some of his remaining cruise missiles. None of the targets have any military significance, this is revenge for self-preservation. It may also be that the missiles used are not accurate enough to hit military targets. The Russian response is entirely congruent with an army that is exhausted and low on ammunition.

[french frank]

That's what I feel (for what that's worth!). The Russians are still losing on the ground, and I don't see what Surovikin, the new commander of the Russian forces, can do to halt that with conventional tactics. The hawks, as they're now being called, are pushing at an open door as far as Putin's brutal instincts are concerned.

[french frank]

Russia has called for Russian civilians to evacuate Kherson and return to Russia as the Ukrainians are reported to be advancing towards the city. This seems to be very significant, if only their advance can continue and they don't begin to lose ground elsewhere. Kherson is the only regional capital that the Russians had been able to capture.

[french frank]

Another demoralising story for the Russians. If the unnamed 'former Soviet republic' had been Ukraine, they would certainly have said so. This seems to reflect the disquiet outside Russia itself for the heavy toll being taken on the new young troops from the federation. Where do the rest of the claimed 220,000 new conscripts come from?

[Bryn]

This item from the BBC News channel might be of interest:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001db8f/our-world-fighting-putins-propaganda

Sorry, frenchie, it's not available to you.

[Historian]

The point is that he said it (on State TV), isn't it? But as I added to my post, it may just be criticism of the Ministry of Defence rather than of the war itself (cf Ramzan Kadyrov).

It is very helpful for Putin if the Russian Ministry of Defence is held responsible for his mistakes. Kadyrov and others of the same ilk, such as Prigozhin (financier of the Wagner mercenary group), are jockeying for position and looking to the future. So, I think you are correct that any outbreaks of something resembling reality on Russian state television are very likely to be arranged beforehand. Criticism of Shoigu et al is fine: criticism of Putin is not permitted in any shape or form.

[Historian]

The Kerch Bridge is highly symbolic of cementing Russia's annexation (or liberation, if you're a Russian ultranationalist) of Crimea. It's strongly linked to Putin himself, he had it built. The ultranationalists demanded revenge and not responding would have been a sign of Putin's weakness and probably fatal for him. The Russian army has had several major battlefield defeats and has been in retreat in the last two months. A response seems beyond the current capacity of his army. His conventional airforce have played very little role throughout the war. The navy are hiding out of range of Ukraine's surface to ship missiles. Putin's only option was to use some of his remaining cruise missiles. None of the targets have any military significance, this is revenge for self-preservation. It may also be that the missiles used are not accurate enough to hit military targets. The Russian response is entirely congruent with an army that is exhausted and low on ammunition.

I was going to comment on this over a week ago, however Duncan's comment said everything so clearly I saw no need.

Would add that it is never wise to go with official Russian pronouncements about anything. The road bridge will be out of action for many weeks: the rail section may be ready sooner but not any time soon. Russia's already difficult logistical situation has worsened substantially as a result.

[Historian]

Russia has called for Russian civilians to evacuate Kherson and return to Russia as the Ukrainians are reported to be advancing towards the city. This seems to be very significant, if only their advance can continue and they don't begin to lose ground elsewhere. Kherson is the only regional capital that the Russians had been able to capture.

Ukraine is keeping a lid on what is happening in the south, however all the signs are that Russia will shortly be leaving the prized regional capital of Kherson very soon. How many of its civilian population will still be there when Ukrainian liberators arrive is open to question. It seems that Russia has already stolen some of the city's fire engines and ambulances.

Elsewhere the autumn mud has slowed down operations, however Ukraine is slowly closing on the vital communications centre of Svatove in the north east. In the meantime Ukraine continues to smash up some of the best Russian units in the south and makes the occupiers' task more and more difficult by targeting their over-stretched lines of communications over the whole long front. I hope that once the (apparently unseasonably early) rains turn into the winter freeze then Ukraine will be able to make further advances irrespective of the number of semi-trained (at best), shivering conscripts which Putin's creaking organisation manages to scrape together.

[french frank]

... irrespective of the number of semi-trained (at best), shivering conscripts which Putin's creaking organisation manages to scrape together.

There was a story about the families of conscripts providing them with basic equipment, clothing and body armour because they weren't provided with anything.

[Frances_iom]

my own suggestion is that Russia will increase its attacks on the infrastructure - I note the Ukranian warning that one key dam has already be mined ready for possible demolition - the new variant of the flying bomb, Iranian style, would appear to be very effective if sufficient are used and like WW2 V1 rockets their random appearance can produce significant citizen disquiet as well as damage to key infrastructure. Possibly we are seeing the Syrian conflict being played out again - make a wasteland and call it peace - the cost of restoring the Ukrainian infrastructure is immense and as it is likely the USA will soon be at a proxy war with China over Taiwan it will have to fall on the EU.

[french frank]

Mystifying. Putin is reported thus: "Mr Putin repeated his recent attacks on the West, and what he called its "dangerous, bloody and dirty game" of denying countries their sovereignty and uniqueness.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63417487