Ukraine

[Bryn]

This interactive map gives a good overview of who is in control of different parts of the country and where the fighting is occurring. It is produced by someone who is not subject expert (a baseball statistician) but it has proven to be reasonably accurate. It is updated several times a day when the situation is dynamic. Names are both Roman and Cyrillic and it's searchable which makes it easy to follow-up on a news report for example.

Is there a handy key to the symbols used?

[duncan]

Is there a handy key to the symbols used?

If you click on a symbol or area something should appear in the map legend.

[french frank]

It seems that Russia intends to 'clarify' where the new Ukraine-Russia 'border' is after annexation. It's hard to see how they can claim Kherson, Zaporizhia or Donestk when they aren't in control of anything like the whole of those regions. Luhansk is the only one they largely control and even that's now threatened by the Ukrainian advance.

[Historian]

Many thanks for the maps and suggestions.

In Kherson Ukraine has apparently taken most of Dudchany (the tip of the arrow on Duncan's map) as well as broadening their salient. This will make it very difficult for Russia to hang on and will probably force a retreat to lines further south around Beryslav. Time will show whether the under-supplied Russian forces will stabilise their front.

In the north-east Ukraine continues to by-pass strongpoints and aims to envelop Kreminna next. The Russian lines of communication north are being overrun. Svatove will soon be under threat and this has catastrophic implications for the Russian control of northern Luhansk.

This is not the end, but...

[richardfinegold]

Many thanks for the maps and suggestions.

In Kherson Ukraine has apparently taken most of Dudchany (the tip of the arrow on Duncan's map) as well as broadening their salient. This will make it very difficult for Russia to hang on and will probably force a retreat to lines further south around Beryslav. Time will show whether the under-supplied Russian forces will stabilise their front.

In the north-east Ukraine continues to by-pass strongpoints and aims to envelop Kreminna next. The Russian lines of communication north are being overrun. Svatove will soon be under threat and this has catastrophic implications for the Russian control of northern Luhansk.

This is not the end, but...

…the beginning of the end?

[french frank]

…the beginning of the end?

I don't think anyone dares say that yet. The success of the Ukrainians is one thing; how Moscow will respond is unfathomable.

[Mario]

I’m no military expert, but would the international military intelligentsia consider this effort by the Russian army to be an absolute joke?

I cannot pretend to know much about war tactics (nor do I have much desire to learn these), but is it no surprise that Russia got it all so wrong?

[Serial_Apologist]

I’m no military expert, but would the international military intelligentsia consider this effort by the Russian army to be an absolute joke?

I cannot pretend to know much about war tactics (nor do I have much desire to learn these), but is it no surprise that Russia got it all so wrong?

Hmmmm!! - Well for what it's worth I think it's a kick in the teeth to the memory of the thousands of Russians who died fighting the Nazis in WW2 - especially the inhabitants of then-Stalingrad, in an ironically reverse situation from that of what is now taking place in the Russian-occupied enclaves of eastern Ukraine in which they now find themselves under siege, in their turn.

This lesson shouldn't be lost on whoever eventually leads Russia in the wake of Putin.

[Frances_iom]

...
This lesson shouldn't be lost on whoever eventually leads Russia in the wake of Putin.

I suspect that Putin's near term successor won't be a West-inclined liberal but an even nastier hard right nationalist like the current Chechen leader - Putin's constant propaganda will have convinced the majority of the Russian population that is is the West's enmity towards Russia that is the cause of the defeat.

[Historian]

I’m no military expert, but would the international military intelligentsia consider this effort by the Russian army to be an absolute joke?

I cannot pretend to know much about war tactics (nor do I have much desire to learn these), but is it no surprise that Russia got it all so wrong?

Yes (insofar as I can claim to speak for them), in many ways. Not a very funny one, but an abject lesson in how not to do it.

It was a surprise, at first, but increasingly unsurprising as Russian forces persist in their error.

The initial assumption of Ukrainian weakness by Putin was unfounded and from this almost everything else followed. One of my teaching colleagues asked me recently whether we had all been too afraid of Russia in the 1980s. It doesn't necessarily follow, but their armed forces at present have major problems which they will not be able to sort out in time to turn round the war against Ukraine. Their situation has been made much worse by political decisions made by Putin (e.g. holding on to Kherson instead of a phased withdrawal) with the results we now see.

Russian forces and their plans have been inflexible, whereas Ukraine has recently been mounting very successful combined arms operations using infantry, tanks and artillery to punch holes through Russian positions, bypass strongpoints and envelop them leading to chaotic Russian retreats. Everything has been made much worse by the Russian logistics failures which led to the breakdown of, for example, their attack on Kyiv, long before Ukraine was able to strike effectively using HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) from July. The Russian Air Force has been largely ineffective as the battlefield is full of lightweight surface-to-air missile launchers. This has effectively nullified a theoretical advantage of Russian airpower. Russian aeroplanes really press home their attacks and when they do they often get shot down. Even the Black Sea Fleet has ben remarkably ineffective, losing its flagship (Moskva) and being forces out of it Sevastopol base.

Ukraine has embraced new technology (drones/UAVs) much more effectively than its opponents. They have also proved more adept at using older weapons including tanks. In sum, the Ukrainians have fought Russia to a standstill and are now taking back their country.

[Sorry, Mario: it seems I rather ignored the second sentence of your message.]

[Historian]

…the beginning of the end?

Probably unduly hopeful on my part rfg, but certainly we are well past the end of the beginning.

[richardfinegold]

Apparently the Ukranians are using artillery shells that have GPS guidance, which cost considerable, but as opposed to the Russian carpet bombing technique, these are precision munitions designed to take out supply and infrastructure targets

[Historian]

Apparently the Ukranians are using artillery shells that have GPS guidance, which cost considerable, but as opposed to the Russian carpet bombing technique, these are precision munitions designed to take out supply and infrastructure targets

Yes, they certainly have access to these, including one type called 'Excalibur'. The HIMARS rocket systems are also very effective, with highly effective guidance systems. However, the more conventional modern western-supplied artillery can also do a good job as Ukraine has become very adept at using drones for artillery spotting purposes. Ukraine's military communication system is also much more advanced than Russia's which makes counter-battery fire and other fire support more effective. Furthermore Russia's cumbersome chain of command means that their artillery fire hits targets of opportunity much less often.

The Russians have had some success with heavy bombardments of towns and cities where accuracy is less important than overwhelming weight of fire. However, Ukraine's destruction of Russian supply lines has reduced the effectiveness of this tactic, which is also heading towards a war crime even when the civilian population is not directly targeted.

The next but one series of battles in Kherson Oblast may be easier for the Russians in so far as they will have better supply lines east of the Dnipro river, at least to start with. However, Ukraine's artillery is getting stronger and more effective, while Russia's is being systematically degraded. That's not including the large numbers of artillery pieces that they have left behind as 'gifts' in the north-east.

[Mario]

[Sorry, Mario: it seems I rather ignored the second sentence of your message.]

Not at all Historian. You gave a response far more detailed than I had anticipated.

Thank you!

I also like SA’s response in 1344.

Indeed, how the worm has turned…

[french frank]

Interesting headline today: Russia warns US of direct military clash risk

'Russia's ambassador to the US, Anatoly Antonov, said it was an "immediate threat" to Moscow, describing the US as "a participant of the conflict"'.

Just imagine if Russia weren't 'a participant of the conflict'.