Ukraine

[french frank]

At 16.23 the BBC are reporting the Russians have been 'forced out' of Lyman. One can't help feeling that Putin's recent escalation of the situation will renew Ukrainian resolve on the ground - but do less for the Russian troops.

[Bryn]

For those on Facbook: https://scontent-lhr8-1.xx.fbcdn.net...4A&oe=633E3E06

Shared by pianist and, IIRC, erstwhile contributor here, Jonathan Powell, with the message "The soldier on the right is the conductor Nazar Yatskiv, who directed our performance of Rachmaninoff's third concerto about 9 years ago in Ivano Frankivsk. Slava Ukraini!". The original posting of the photograph by Nazar Yatskiv read: " Міжнародним Днем Музики!" (Happy International Day of Music!)

[Historian]

At 16.23 the BBC are reporting the Russians have been 'forced out' of Lyman. One can't help feeling that Putin's recent escalation of the situation will renew Ukrainian resolve on the ground - but do less for the Russian troops.

Lyman (and the towns/villages around it) fell this morning, with probable heavy Russian casualties. Ukraine's armed forces now on the outskirts of Kreminna with further advances east in prospect. Even more importantly, the main road to the crucial road and railway junction of Svatove is now available. If Ukraine can capture this soon then the whole Russian position in northern Luhansk is at risk.

The fall of Lyman also raises the possibility of Ukraine being able to bypass defences around Lysychansk and Severodonetsk and start pushing into Donetsk oblast. Both these operations may be limited by the autumn rains/mud which, however, are not as difficult as the mud in spring apparently.

Either way, it's another disaster for Putin. The 'partial mobilisation' is unlikely to stop, although it may slow, Ukraine's advance.

[french frank]

Either way, it's another disaster for Putin. The 'partial mobilisation' is unlikely to stop, although it may slow, Ukraine's advance.

And how easy it is to sign a piece of paper in Moscow and have people dance about and wave Russian flags.

[Historian]

And how easy it is to sign a piece of paper in Moscow and have people dance about and wave Russian flags.

Many (most?) were bussed in apparently.

[french frank]

Many (most?) were bussed in apparently.

Those in the photograph after the signing were just the people Putin had put in charge of the occupied areas.

[Historian]

Those in the photograph after the signing were just the people Putin had put in charge of the occupied areas.

I feel that those positions might only be held for a relatively short-term.

[Serial_Apologist]

Many (most?) were bussed in apparently.

There didn't appear to be a lot of joy on the faces buried under all those flags!

[Historian]

As well as continued Ukrainian success in the north-east, with Kreminna in danger of encirclement, there are also reports of an advance on the Kherson front. The fighting here, against one of the stronger and more capable fronts of the Russian armed forces, has been bitter with heavy losses on both sides. In the north part of the sector (West of the Dnipro river) Ukraine has taken back Zolota Balka. There are also rumours of greater success but so far without confirmation. Still good news, potentially showing the breakdown of the Russian position there.

EDIT: There is also news of Ukraine breaking out eastwards from their Kupyansk bridgehead (in the north east) and heading towards the communications hub of Svatove.

[Apologies to anyone whose knowledge of Ukrainian geography is such that a map would help decipher my posts. I don't line appending large images and a small one would not help.]

[Frances_iom]

there was an interesting comment in Saturday's episode of Crossing Continents re the Russians moving to Georgia to avoid the draft - the reporter asked some if they had previously demonstrated against the war - it seems that for many it was only when they were in danger of being forced to fight that they gave any consideration to the war - very little consideration given, it appears, for the Ukrainians apart from one who stated he had always voted against Putin and had sent some money to relief societies.

[Bryn]

As well as continued Ukrainian success in the north-east, with Kreminna in danger of encirclement, there are also reports of an advance on the Kherson front. The fighting here, against one of the stronger and more capable fronts of the Russian armed forces, has been bitter with heavy losses on both sides. In the north part of the sector (West of the Dnipro river) Ukraine has taken back Zolota Balka. There are also rumours of greater success but so far without confirmation. Still good news, potentially showing the breakdown of the Russian position there.

EDIT: There is also news of Ukraine breaking out eastwards from their Kupyansk bridgehead (in the north east) and heading towards the communications hub of Svatove.

[Apologies to anyone whose knowledge of Ukrainian geography is such that a map would help decipher my posts. I don't line appending large images and a small one would not help.]

Worth bearing in mind that one does not upload an image to this Forum, as such. One links to an off-Forum URL. One can also choose to just include the URL, with "dot" substituted for the full stop (period)., rather than linking to it, e.g. https://www.google(dot)com/maps/plac...3!4d31.1655799 Those wanting to view the map just have to replace the "(dot)" with "."

[Historian]

Thank you Bryn: will bear that in mind and see if I can find a suitable map or maps to link to.

[Frances_iom]

Thank you Bryn: will bear that in mind and see if I can find a suitable map or maps to link to.

The 1990 edition of the USSR railway atlas pp66-78 include Ukraine - naturally names are in Cyrillic but they are A5 pages

[duncan]

Thank you Bryn: will bear that in mind and see if I can find a suitable map or maps to link to.

As Historian says, a number of reliable commentators are reporting a major breakthrough NE of Kherson. This map, retweeted by Shashank Joshi - Defence Editor at The Economist, is one of the more conservative representations.

[duncan]

This interactive map gives a good overview of who is in control of different parts of the country and where the fighting is occurring. It is produced by someone who is not subject expert (a baseball statistician) but it has proven to be reasonably accurate. It is updated several times a day when the situation is dynamic. Names are both Roman and Cyrillic and it's searchable which makes it easy to follow-up on a news report for example.