Ukraine

[Petrushka]

Latest article from Lawrence Freedman here: https://samf.substack.com/p/going-nuclear

[Cockney Sparrow]

Markov was "interviewed" in R4 Today at about 8.10-8.15 today, issuing threats of nuclear attacks. He said the US and GB are principal aggressors fighting in Ukraine with a proxy, threatening Russia with nuclear weapons, so he specified us as a target in return. Interviewer hardly got a word in. Later in the programme, a measured assessment of the situation from a former ambassador to Moscow.

Sabre rattling, I'm sure (well, one has to be sure for peace of mind) but nonetheless unsettling.......

[french frank]

Medvedev? I read that it was Sergey Markov, an ex-member of the Duma. For him Ukraine and the West have invaded Russia, which is how Putin is presenting it.

Medvedev was "interviewed" in R4 Today at about 8.10-8.15 today, issuing threats of nuclear attacks. He said the US and GB are principal aggressors fighting in Ukraine with a proxy, threatening Russia with nuclear weapons, so he specified us as a target in return. Interviewer hardly got a word in. Later in the programme, a measured assessment of the situation from a former ambassador to Moscow.

Sabre rattling, I'm sure (well, one has to be sure for peace of mind) but nonetheless unsettling.......

[eighthobstruction]

....glad to see Ukraine front and centre on CNN [USA] news last night....[saying similar to CockneySparrows post]

[oddoneout]

Markov was "interviewed" in R4 Today at about 8.10-8.15 today, issuing threats of nuclear attacks. He said the US and GB are principal aggressors fighting in Ukraine with a proxy, threatening Russia with nuclear weapons, so he specified us as a target in return. Interviewer hardly got a word in. Later in the programme, a measured assessment of the situation from a former ambassador to Moscow.

Sabre rattling, I'm sure (well, one has to be sure for peace of mind) but nonetheless unsettling.......

This I find unsettling. Liz Truss speaking to the UN
"...And he is making yet more bogus claims and sabre-rattling threats. This will not work.”
I don't follow such things regularly so perhaps this sort of statement is considered OK, but my first reaction was that when dealing with an unstable person holding a loaded gun you don't treat that person as a minor irritation and scorn the threats, which almost inevitably will be interpreted as goading and/or bluff calling - very much not what is wanted when nuclear weapons are involved I would have thought. It needs much more diplomacy to get across a message than she appears to possess?

[french frank]

my first reaction was that when dealing with an unstable person holding a loaded gun you don't treat that person as a minor irritation and scorn the threats

Reminds me of "The Pied Piper of Hamelin":

You threaten us fellow - do your worst,
Blow your pipe until you burst.

With an unfortunate consequence. A diplomat is another thing that Truss isn't, obviously. I just hope the protests take hold and there aren't enough prison inmates to make up for the Russian losses.

[Dave2002]

Seems that now there are a significant number of Russians trying to leave, to avoid being conscripted. What a mess.

https://youtu.be/pdPv68Ywbvs

[Dave2002]

Also President Macron is impressive - his command of English is excellent.

https://youtu.be/1BT5nXDhtOo

[Bella Kemp]

There seems something of the sad and pathetic King Lear about Putin 'I do not bluff' - I'm really big and strong still although I'm cast out into the wilderness and my world is falling apart.

[Historian]

As Putin's offensives have slowed, in the face of unexpected Ukrainian resistance, he has reverted to type (cf. Grozny, Aleppo). Mariupol and other cities are besieged and under heavy bombardment, regardless of civilian casualties. Worst-case scenario might be a stalemate with both sides entrenched and neither able to force a win.

Out of interest I have been going through this thread from the beginning. This is what I wrote just over six months ago - 20th March - when the war was entering it's second month.

Happily, I was overly pessimistic: Ukraine is clearly winning now. Their ultimate victory will probably be delayed by the so-called 'partial mobilisation' but a horde of unwilling, effectively untrained men without proper equipment and leadership will not stop Ukraine taking back Luhansk, Donetsk and, with any luck, Crimea.

[Serial_Apologist]

Out of interest I have been going through this thread from the beginning. This is what I wrote just over six months ago - 20th March - when the war was entering it's second month.

Happily, I was overly pessimistic: Ukraine is clearly winning now. Their ultimate victory will probably be delayed by the so-called 'partial mobilisation' but a horde of unwilling, effectively untrained men without proper equipment and leadership will not stop Ukraine taking back Luhansk, Donetsk and, with any luck, Crimea.

All prescient and correct!

[Historian]

(Probably too many posts from me on this memorable day but couldn't resist.)

Those of you who have been following events may remember the prolonged battle for Severodonetsk beginning in May and ending with Ukraine's retreat on 24th June.

I believe that today Ukraine has begun the recapture of Severodonetsk.

Not entirely prescient I'm afraid. Lyman, mentioned above, has yet to fall. Severodonetsk is still under Russian control.

[eighthobstruction]

[french frank]

Not entirely prescient I'm afraid. Lyman, mentioned above, has yet to fall. Severodonetsk is still under Russian control.

I'm interested in the report that Putin refused his commanders' requests to withdraw from Kherson back beyond the Dnieper, which would preserve lives and equipment. What kind of mind refuses such a request by military professionals? Still, I suppose Hitler wasn't a high-ranking military man either.

[Historian]

Kherson is the only oblast capital the Russians have taken this year. Even Putin would struggle to claim that he holds Kherson Oblast without holding the city. Hence the political imperative supersedes military reality.

As an organisation the Russian army has never set much store on the lives of its personnel and there is little chance of withdrawing much of their equipment as the bridges are too far damaged and/or within range of Ukrainian artillery. The Russian military leadership has been shown to be very poor, which may give Putin some reason for his evident contempt of his defence minister Shoigu. As you point out, he is not the first dictator to try to run a war unsuccessfully.