Ukraine

[Historian]

It is foolish to make predictions from patchy press reports but it is beginning to look like a collapse - like Tannenberg, like France in 1940 . That does not preclude a regroup and a counter offensive . But for that to happen there has to be the will and the leadership - not just at the political level but at every level right down to the corps , company and platoon . Is there any evidence that there is much of either on the Russian side?

A vital point I agree. At the moment everyone in Russia is talking a good game in public. However, I have severe doubts, to say the least.

There have been issues with Russia's invasion right for the beginning: declaring (for political reasons) that it was a 'Special Military Operation' has tied Putin's hands in so many different ways. Russian troops, when they were told anything, were assured that they would be greeted with open arms form a grateful Ukrainian population. Reality, in most cases, proved rather different. Operations around Kyiv fell to pieces, the Donetsk front ground to a stalemate and the expected Ukrainian collapse did not happen. There were serious losses of officers (some high-ranking) and experienced troops, as well as of weapons and equipment. Most of the keenest leaders are probably dead or will not be returning to service. I can't image there is much appetite for offensive operations amongst the few survivors of the upper areas of LNR and DNR.

There is still evidence of Russian forces making occasional brave, almost sacrificial, attacks e.g. against Bakhmut as we speak. However, I would be amazed if there is the military will - at any level - to attempt to reverse the gains Ukraine has made. Each day Ukraine's forces grow stronger and Russia's weaken. Lashing out with guided (or mostly unguided) missiles against civilian infrastructure does not change this fact. The Kherson front is starting to crumble and this will result in much heavier losses in irreplaceable soldiers and officers than the fighting we have just seen.

So, in public, Russian military leaders may well declare that Russia will arise stronger etc. etc. But in private, they will carry on pretending that everything is progressing well and hope they won't be found out.

The extreme 'mil bloggers' want a full mobilisation: I cannot see this happening for anything short of a Ukrainian invasion of Russia (not Luhansk, Donetsk or Crimea). Even if it did, this would take time and resources which Russia does not have. Putin can't risk it anyway.

[Historian]

....I still feel the Machinations of Putrin and buddies will have a large part to play for some time....in ways that only Counterintelligence might understand....

Definitely.

[Historian]

I see the BBC also has: "In a message posted to Telegram, Mr Kadyrov [the Chechen leader] said if there was not a change in Russia's fortunes, he would be forced to question the country's leadership to explain the situation."

Will the militias start to back away if it looks as if the Russians are losing?

Kadyrov can't afford to lose either Putin's support or too many of his men (apparently notable for their lack of engagement in actual combat in Ukraine according to some sources). So, as you suggest, he may well decide that his time would be better spent making sure he is not overthrown.

On a similar note, Lukashenko in Belarus is now trying to ingratiate himself with anyone he can: with any luck his hourglass is almost empty. There are a good m=number of Belarus volunteers fighting for Ukraine (also Georgians among others).

[eighthobstruction]

....I heard there were some rumblings ref the chechen leader.... [I don't think I could explain what rumblings]....

[french frank]

On a similar note, Lukashenko in Belarus is now trying to ingratiate himself with anyone he can: with any luck his hourglass is almost empty. There are a good m=number of Belarus volunteers fighting for Ukraine (also Georgians among others).

I saw a story about him backing off from committing troops, but I'm not sure how old the story was. Though I doubt he will be becoming more inclined to do so now. Putin may have been a welcome ally, but some must be wondering how much longer he will be around.

[Bryn]

I saw a story about him backing off from committing troops, but I'm not sure how old the story was. Though I doubt he will be becoming more inclined to do so now. Putin may have been a welcome ally, but some must be wondering how much longer he will be around.

While the Belorussian armed forces have not exactly had the opportunity to become battle-hardened in recent years, those of Ukraine have had such forced upon them in the past 7 months or so. It seems to me that Lukashenko is most likely to want to save his troops for self-protection, rather than helping out his master.

[french frank]

An interesting television debate (in Russian but with subtitles) showing real disagreement with the government line from a couple of the speakers. One stresses the imperative to crush Zelensky's Nazis, another points out that the Ukrainians in Odesa weren't overjoyed to be 'liberated'and were resistant to having their Ukrainian identity denied. And the war was not going well for Russia and would drag on and on.

[Dave2002]

I also find it slightly disappointing at the lack of interest shown on the forum in recent weeks (months), but there are many reasons for this and I am probably being unreasonable. My apologies if so.

I agree with the sentiment, and I hope that the seemingly “immediate” problems, the rise of Truss and the death of the Queen don’t push this to the bottom of the agenda list. I would place this near the top, along with climate change, but I fear the politicians are going to totally screw these things up.

There may also be some prudent reasons for not commenting too rapidly on recent events.

[Dave2002]

An interesting television debate (in Russian but with subtitles) showing real disagreement with the government line from a couple of the speakers. One stresses the imperative to crush Zelensky's Nazis, another points out that the Ukrainians in Odesa weren't overjoyed to be 'liberated'and were resistant to having their Ukrainian identity denied. And the war was not going well for Russia and would drag on and on.

Link to TV debate? Looks like a Guardian article to me.

[Stanfordian]

Link to TV debate? Looks like a Guardian article to me.

It does to me too.

[french frank]

Link to TV debate? Looks like a Guardian article to me.

But there is a video embedded. The Julia Davis tweet which you can access directly from the Guardian site.

[Dave2002]

But there is a video embedded. The Julia Davis tweet which you can access directly from the Guardian site.

Ah - not quite in the article itself. Some interesting points. one person saying that the fight - for whatever “anti-nazi” reason must go on until victory, and another asking if that means his 10 year old daughter will eventually get to fight! As for the quite reasonable discussion about what to say to the Ukrainian people - yes - sure it would be good to talk to them, or indeed others, but surely now hardly anybody is going to believe anything coming from Russia. Trust - if there ever was any - has been blown to pieces by the events of 2014 and since. Sad - there are clearly many sincere Russians who do not/did not want this to happen, but even if the fighting dies down, this may now take decades to heal - possibly another half century. Just about everything the Russian government has done this century seems to have been based on lies and falsehoods - offering “protection” to Ukraine in return for giving up nuclear weapons etc. - though this was also supposed to be guaranteed by other parties, including the US and the UK.

[french frank]

Sad - there are clearly many sincere Russians who do not/did not want this to happen.

Who, in Ukraine, no doubt had never encountered the "genocide"

but even if the fighting dies down, this may now take decades to heal - possibly another half century. Just about everything the Russian government has done this century seems to have been based on lies and falsehoods

Including the fact that Ukraine has a 'Nazi government', followed by the emotive claim of genocide of the Russian population.

There was widespread corruption in Ukraine - which troubled eg the EU - but no more than in Russia itself. And democracy was established, unlike in Russia where opposition leaders are imprisoned and critics fall out of windows.

Once you remove the claims of misdeeds by the Ukrainian government, you are left with Russia invading a sovereign, independent, democratic state with no justification

[Dave2002]

There was widespread corruption in Ukraine - which troubled eg the EU - but no more than in Russia itself. And democracy was established, unlike in Russia where opposition leaders are imprisoned and critics fall out of windows.

There may well have been widespread corruption in Ukraine in the past, though I thought that most of that was promulgated by the Kremlin supporters, and some members of previous governments. After 2014 or thereabouts I believe that Ukraine moved away from being a kleptocracy. The current president was thought by some Ukrainians to be a bit of a joke, and they were unsure how/why he was elected, but it hasn’t turned out that way at all, which I think has surprised many, both in and outside Ukraine. Before 2012 or maybe sometime slightly earlier than that I tended to think of Russians and Ukrainians as being “almost the same”, but more recently we get the absolute nonsense of Putin trying to claim that they are the same, and then wanting to bomb the hell out of them.

[french frank]

There may well have been widespread corruption in Ukraine in the past, though I thought that most of that was promulgated by the Kremlin supporters, and some members of previous governments. After 2014 or thereabouts I believe that Ukraine moved away from being a kleptocracy.

It's Work in Progress. In 2021, it scored 32/100 and ranked 122nd out of 180 (Russia 29/100 136th)

https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021