Ukraine

[Maclintick]

There has been comment here that the BBC has not provided the in depth coverage that one has come to expect, and that they seem consumed with the most recent National Event. The lack of Foreign Reporting has been an issue here for years. In fact, the BBC has been one of the sources that I have had to go to

That doesn't surprise me, Richard. I don't know which BBC channels some Forumites are criticising in particular, & of course it's true that the National Event has monopolised the airwaves since last Thur, but during the current offensive near Kharkiv there's been on-the-spot coverage by the BBC's Quentin Somerville, embedded with Ukrainian forces at the battlefront. In this scenario there are bound to be severe reporting restrictions on anything which could provide the Kremlin with tactical intelligence, and "Fog of War" will doubtless account for the paucity of information available to armchair analysts, but there's also been reporting from outside the immediate conflict zones e.g. with bereaved mothers of Russian soldiers from within Russia itself -- not a risk-free undertaking for reporter and interviewee I'd suggest.

[eighthobstruction]

....No ff, I meant the swamp Trump himself has created....far dirtier and slimey (full of grifters and opportunistic hypocrites) than the one [which is generally lawyerly] he said he intended to drain

[french frank]

....No ff, I meant the swamp Trump himself has created....far dirtier and slimey (full of grifters and opportunistic hypocrites) than the one [which is generally lawyerly] he said he intended to drain

Oh, right MSNBC usually regarded as being on the traitorous hard left unpatriotic liberal side.

[You weren't at school with Cary Grant, were you?]

[eighthobstruction]

Oh, right MSNBC usually regarded as being on the traitorous hard left unpatriotic liberal side.

[You weren't at school with Cary Grant, were you?]

.....I watch a great deal of MSNBC....many of the Lead commentators are EX Republicans,lawyers, many have worked in Congress or as Defense/Prosecutors at State and Federal level....Military Experts, Ex Armed Forces High Echelon and Pentagon Experts....Historians....a tremendous array of people who speak without saying "um"/"er"....I am fascinated by it....plus the many other liberal/progressive news outlets....

....no, but, Cary Grant isn't even half as charming as me in the flesh....

[Dave2002]

Have you traveled in Spain? One still sees Roman roads, acqueducts and the like in every use

I’m not sure how many are used for their original purposes. I have walked part way across the Pont du Gard (France) which has been maintained both as a road and a historic “monument”. Madeira has a complex - and scary - system of water management, but I don’t know whether the Romans were in any way responsible.

To answer your first question -“yes”.

[french frank]

I see the BBC also has: "In a message posted to Telegram, Mr Kadyrov [the Chechen leader] said if there was not a change in Russia's fortunes, he would be forced to question the country's leadership to explain the situation."

Will the militias start to back away if it looks as if the Russians are losing?

[eighthobstruction]

I think we are all very pleased by the Ukrainian military successes. However one wonders to what extent they can maintain this? The concern is that they may become stretched to thin and be vulnerable to a Russian counterattack. I don’t have any kind of Military background, just a lot reading through the years. However I think we can be cautiously optimistic for a few reasons.
First, apparently Ukraine was under some pressure from Western donors to show that they could mount such offensives in order to keep receiving assistance. Mission accomplished.
Second, are the Russians capable of mounting an effective counter stroke? So far all they have been able to do spread the enemy with overwhelming Artillery and then conquer territory with overwhelming superiority in numbers and siege like operations. They seem stuck in their WWII Mentality. Whereas the Ukrainian strategy is more reminiscent of the Allies strategy in that conflict, or perhaps Israel in The Six Day War.
Third, Russian Morale is low. This is not the Great Patriotic War where an evil invader needs to be expelled and Great Sacrifice is required. This time they are the Evil Invader and not willing to die for the ambitions of Tsar Boris.
Namely, isolate /obliterate the enemies Command and Control; cut off their supply routes; bypass garrisons to attack deeper into Territory and then overwhelm those isolated and weakened garrisons. The Russians by contrast have never fought in this way.
The limiting factor here may be Energy. The Ukrainians may lose 20% of their own with the Z Nuclear Plant going off line (hopefully not up in smoke). Putin will tighten the screws on Western Europe who will not be in a position to help Ukraine in their current needs. The U.S. throttled their own capacities in deference to Green Energy Policies. The Russians have essentially busted the sanctions against them with the help of Countries such as Turkey.

....sorry I missed this earlier....a good analysis rfg....Russia has - all the time in the world,IMO to do what it likes [Military manoevres with China/North Korea + last week [even a few Indian observers]).....all the time to think of nasty ways to hurt Ukraine / Europe Economies / African poverty and food etc etc....Russia has time to evolve their tactics - every 6months they get a new batch of conscripts (100k I think)....no jobs in Russia in general so soldiering keeping wolf from the door....the ball will always be in Russian court -anyone agin Putin seems to fall out of Hospital windows.....blaa blaa....While Ukraine gets victories and odd territory a strong slightly mauled Russia has a watching brief....

USA tested Ballistic Nuclear Missiles last week ....sucessful deployment of a missile which separates and attacks several targets....Russias Land/Navy/Airforces have been shown to be puny.....but many and led by a madman....

[Historian]

I love reading your posts. Keep it up

Thank you rfg, I appreciate it. Like 8thO I agree with your analysis: had not really thought about the energy side of things.

No Russian counter-attack is likely: there are no effective reserves to hand. Furthermore, Ukraine has every need to be careful with this striking force: they are extremely well-informed (with help from NATO) and I am sure that they will be very careful not to over-extend.

As you imply, I think the success we are seeing will guarantee western support for the foreseeable future.

Russia has been able to evade some sanctions but their energy reserves are essentially a wasting asset. It is also likely that previous supporters may now be reconsidering their position.

[Historian]

I wondered a few months back whether this was going to be the case (post 916).

I’m hardly in a position to talk, and I’m not preaching, but I do wonder whether we have all already become anesthetised to the war?

I think of the poor, innocent, young soldiers (on both sides) almost daily, but beyond that, I feel pretty powerless.

I can't directly help Ukraine, however I can remind people that the war is still going on and that Ukraine is heading, slowly (until recently) but surely towards victory. That will eventually save Russian lives as well as those of Ukrainians (and others from elsewhere). So, maybe I am too wrapped up in this and losing my perspective, but regular discussion is a (very, very small) part of the support Ukraine needs. So, many thanks to everyone who has ever posted, commented or just not lost sight of what has been happening (like you Mario).

[Historian]

There has been comment here that the BBC has not provided the in depth coverage that one has come to expect, and that they seem consumed with the most recent National Event. The lack of Foreign Reporting has been an issue here for years. In fact, the BBC has been one of the sources that I have had to go to

I understand that Ukraine has forbidden journalists to accompany their armed forces, except under carefully controlled conditions and not during combat operations. Also, I would not expect the BBC to disseminate news which is essentially unverified. As you point out rfg, The BBC has a well-deserved reputation for its foreign news coverage. However, I still feel that they have not lived up to this in their coverage of the actual fighting. I may well be being unreasonable in this belief. As you say, they are much more reliable than many other outlets.

Apologies also for not having read as fas as Maclintick's excellent post which perhaps gives a more balanced view of the BBC's coverage.

[Historian]

....sorry I missed this earlier....a good analysis rfg....Russia has - all the time in the world,IMO to do what it likes [Military manoevres with China/North Korea + last week [even a few Indian observers]).....all the time to think of nasty ways to hurt Ukraine / Europe Economies / African poverty and food etc etc....Russia has time to evolve their tactics - every 6months they get a new batch of conscripts (100k I think)....no jobs in Russia in general so soldiering keeping wolf from the door....the ball will always be in Russian court -anyone agin Putin seems to fall out of Hospital windows.....blaa blaa....While Ukraine gets victories and odd territory a strong slightly mauled Russia has a watching brief....

USA tested Ballistic Nuclear Missiles last week ....sucessful deployment of a missile which separates and attacks several targets....Russias Land/Navy/Airforces have been shown to be puny.....but many and led by a madman....

Valid points: however Russian strength has been more than "slightly mauled". They have suffered huge losses in tanks and other armoured vehicles, missiles and other munitions, as well as trained officers and NCOs. Their training establishment has suffered heavy casualties in Ukraine with the consequent failures in training and morale that we have seen over the last few days. They do not have the means to repair vehicles etc., let alone build new ones. An attempted second invasion of Ukraine with an under-equipped, semi-trained army would be destroyed in short order.

They will be heading into the winter having lost (at the very least) much of what they gained. I am pretty sure that Kherson and the northern part of its province will fall soon. Russian-occupied Luhansk, Donetsk and even Crimea are all living on borrowed time.

Putin has managed to show how weak and vulnerable Russia is. If he opts for self-annihilation, that does not mean that everyone else involved will go along with it.

[Historian]

Sorry for the indulgent number of consecutive posts: I was away earlier today.

Briefly, Ukraine has effectively liberated all the territory north of Ukraine and also east up to Kupyansk. However, there are also reports that they have continued to strike east towards the next major Russian communication node in Luhansk province. There are also growing reports of a Russian pull-back near Kherson city, not a rout like the one we have witnessed, but evidence of another impending Russian defeat. This front has continued to see heavy fighting but with the Russians at a huge disadvantage.

I will stop now, after craving your indulgence for so many posts.

[Ein Heldenleben]

Valid points: however Russian strength has been more than "slightly mauled". They have suffered huge losses in tanks and other armoured vehicles, missiles and other munitions, as well as trained officers and NCOs. Their training establishment has suffered heavy casualties in Ukraine with the consequent failures in training and morale that we have seen over the last few days. They do not have the means to repair vehicles etc., let alone build new ones. An attempted second invasion of Ukraine with an under-equipped, semi-trained army would be destroyed in short order.

They will be heading into the winter having lost (at the very least) much of what they gained. I am pretty sure that Kherson and the northern part of its province will fall soon. Russian-occupied Luhansk, Donetsk and even Crimea are all living on borrowed time.

Putin has managed to show how weak and vulnerable Russia is. If he opts for self-annihilation, that does not mean that everyone else involved will go along with it.

It is foolish to make predictions from patchy press reports but it is beginning to look like a collapse - like Tannenberg, like France in 1940 . That does not preclude a regroup and a counter offensive . But for that to happen there has to be the will and the leadership - not just at the political level but at every level right down to the corps , company and platoon . Is there any evidence that there is much of either on the Russian side?

[eighthobstruction]

Historian/ Mario....well fantastic news....I have to be personally careful about getting too involved in news and analysis and overly ruminating on it, and thus these very important 3-4 weeks I have only read the headlines thinking the size of the battlefield and task made it beyond Ukraines scope....anyway good and thank you for this info and knowledge. I watch DW videos quite often.

....I still feel the Machinations of Putrin and buddies will have a large part to play for some time....in ways that only Counterintelligence might understand....

[richardfinegold]

....sorry I missed this earlier....a good analysis rfg....Russia has - all the time in the world,IMO to do what it likes [Military manoevres with China/North Korea + last week [even a few Indian observers]).....all the time to think of nasty ways to hurt Ukraine / Europe Economies / African poverty and food etc etc....Russia has time to evolve their tactics - every 6months they get a new batch of conscripts (100k I think)....no jobs in Russia in general so soldiering keeping wolf from the door....the ball will always be in Russian court -anyone agin Putin seems to fall out of Hospital windows.....blaa blaa....While Ukraine gets victories and odd territory a strong slightly mauled Russia has a watching brief....

USA tested Ballistic Nuclear Missiles last week ....sucessful deployment of a missile which separates and attacks several targets....Russias Land/Navy/Airforces have been shown to be puny.....but many and led by a madman....

I edited my earlier post, which somehow managed to jumble some sections, and hopefully it makes more sense now